Wednesday, December 02, 2020

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.8 -.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,488.0 +44.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.83 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.06 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.7 -3.1%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +21.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .67 +3.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 -36.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.75 -.25%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 660.32 -.66%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.56 +2.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.07 -1.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.61 +.15%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.43 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 +2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.65 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 75.5 +5.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 131.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.30 -2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 129.1 +2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 64.7 -2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 +4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +65 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +61 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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