Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Govt Shutdown Worries, US Auto Strike Concerns, Tech/Electric Vehicle Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 +.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.9 -1.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.1 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.34 -.24%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.5 +1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +1.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +19.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.4 +8.3% (new series)
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 306.4 -1.27%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 329.0 -8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.63 +7.3% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 280.2 +6.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.2 +4.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.08 +5.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.08 +.02%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.5 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 166.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 +.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.2 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.2 +6.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.9 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +6.1% -1.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.41 +.01:  Growth Rate +8.9% unch., P/E 18.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.45 +.24: Growth Rate +58.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .28 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -78.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 56.9%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 54.5%(-4.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/transport/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long