Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Technical Buying, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .95%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.0 -.16%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.5 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.4 -.71%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.8 +1.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -2.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.47 +75.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.0 +.14%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 309.17 +.72%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 355.0 -7
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.4 -.11% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 265.5 +1.54%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.3 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.3 +.38%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 -.01%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 164.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 909.0 -13.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 +.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour -5.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.6 -5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.8 -7.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.2 -2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +7.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.13 +.13:  Growth Rate +8.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.54 +.25: Growth Rate +49.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.1 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .46 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -74.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.94% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.66% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 69.0%(-3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 58.1%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -448 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +139 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long