Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less China Economy Pessimism, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -2.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .44%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.5 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.8 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.3 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.2 -.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 -9.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.01 +1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 321.37 +1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 318.0 -9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.1 -.78% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.6 +.82%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.5 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.23 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.02 +.14%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 167.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 906.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.1 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.9 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.0 -3.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.6 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +1.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.55 +.08:  Growth Rate +9.0% +.1 percent point, P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.72 +.13: Growth Rate +58.4% unch., P/E 28.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .06 -17.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 57.7%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 55.3%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long