Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Reversal Lower, Falling Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.5 -4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .82% -12.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.5 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.57 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.2 -3.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -31.0%

• NYSE Arms .97 +12.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -.68%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 329.33 -.35%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 340 +6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.96 -2.11% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 303.75 -1.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.5 +1.14%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 222.78 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.75 -23.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 174.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 914.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.65 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.9 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.8 +5.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(14 of 500 reporting) -11.2% -20.9 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.55 -.22:  Growth Rate +9.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 263.62 +.35: Growth Rate +59.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.9 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.15 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -48.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.92% +6.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 62.2%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 62.7%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +172 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +29 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/medical/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hehttp://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/2023/09/bear-radar_28.html#gsc.tab=0dges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long