Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Short-Covering, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -3.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .72%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.2 -.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.5 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.9 -3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.09 -15.5%

• NYSE Arms .89 -32.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.4 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 306.0 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 374.0 +11
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.1 -2.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 269.9 -1.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.5 -1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 200.9 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 +.29%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 923.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.5 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.4 +1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.6 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.8 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) -5.8%  -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 238.93 +.05:  Growth Rate +8.7% unch., P/E 18.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +25.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 247.13 +.21: Growth Rate +49.o0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.9 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .57 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .26 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -73.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.94% -63.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.66% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 66.7%(+9.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 59.3%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +82 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/transport/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long