Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Quarter-End Positioning, Technical Buying, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .62%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.1 +.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.5 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.4 +.84%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.9 -.08% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -12.2%

• NYSE Arms .87 -25.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.70 +.16%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 325.54 +.83%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 323.0 +5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.58 +.54% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 290.3 -1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.9 +.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.75 +.13%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.02 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.96 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.89%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.4 euros/megawatt-hour +11.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -48.2 +4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.6 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +8.4% -1.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.68 +.13:  Growth Rate +9.0% unch., P/E 18.0 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.89 +.17: Growth Rate +58.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.9 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .29 +23.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -60.5 basis points (2s/10s) +8.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 61.0%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 57.2%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +149 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long