Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Diminishing US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, European Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.7 +.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .66% -16.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.1 -1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.6 -.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.11%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 27.4 -.94% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.24 -22.0%

• NYSE Arms .89 -14.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.54 +.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 365.92 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376 +8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.3 +3.49% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 325.35 +1.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 201.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.3 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 238.8 +1.04%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.64 +.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 181.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 913.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 83.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.49% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour -5.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.5 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.8 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.4 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +2.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.98 +.10:  Growth Rate +9.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.19% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.06 +.30: Growth Rate +59.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.20 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.87% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 67.2%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 64.1%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -172 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my transport/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long