Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Diminishing US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Surging Long-Term Rates, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +13.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.24% +42.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.6 -2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 165.96 -.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.67 +.93%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.9 +7.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.08 -.92%

• NYSE Arms .76 -29.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.6 +4.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.77 +4.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 349 +4
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.09 +3.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 319.90 +2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.0 basis points +9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.36 +1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 242.2 +4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.75 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.5 basis points -4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.5 +4.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 182.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 915.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 81.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.3 -.5%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.48% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.92%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.9 euros/megawatt-hour -6.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.0 -1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.6 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.7 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +1.4% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.67 +.17:  Growth Rate +9.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.6 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.45 +.14: Growth Rate +59.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.8 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 -15.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.12 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.75 basis points (2s/10s) +8.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.87% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 53.6%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 53.6%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -498 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -112 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +126 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long