Friday, January 03, 2025

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminished US Terrorism Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.4 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.29 +.13:  Growth Rate +14.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 393.38 +.11: Growth Rate +25.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -97.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% -14.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 51.5% (+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.2%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -198 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +138 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +5.1% 2) Semis +3.0% 3) Computer Hardware +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRNC, SERV, ATOM, OKLO, RIVN, ACHR, OUST, RIOT, DNA, TEM, LUNR, MP, IONQ, ANAB, BTDR, PGY, SSTK, RCAT, ACHC, RDDT, ARM, VST, MBLY, PAY, SOUN, SQ, CHWY, CGON, FTI, KD, JBL, AMBA, PRTH, ALGM, CEG, MRC, GEAR, MELI, BMEZ, UBS, TMDX, NTR, GPRK, EOLS, TEO, QXO, FFIC, UBER and MOS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CRNC 2) GT 3) GEVO 4) JPM 5) NRG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CRNC 2) RIVN 3) CYCC 4) NUS 5) LFCR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) IYW 3) MSTY 4) IBB 5) XLC
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CMC)/.79
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • Final S&P Global US PMI readings for Dec.

10:00 am EST

  • Factory Orders for Nov. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • (ODC) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, the CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the Goldman Energy/CleanTech/Utilities conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.2 -.5
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 26.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.48 +55.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$196.6M
  • 27 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 52.9% (+2.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.8 +1.8
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.1 +3.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.6 +.02%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,798.1 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (FEAR) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.5 -25.7%
  • Vix 16.8 -6.5%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -26.6%

Thursday, January 02, 2025

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.9%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.8 +.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US Domestic Terrorism Fears, Diminishing China Stimulus Optimism, US Dollar Strength, Homebuilding/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.2 +3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.6 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 +1.7 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.16 +.17:  Growth Rate +14.0% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 393.27 +.35: Growth Rate +25.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.36 +83.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.59% -50.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.8% +.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 49.7% (+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 46.3%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -404 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -1.8% 2) Gambling -1.8% 3) Airlines -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SIG, PRTH, AAPL, WAY, X, PFSI, SOUN, SKYT, ARQQ, CVNA, COCO, MTN, CPF, SPNT, PDYN, TSLA, FUL, SOFI and RCAT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PARA 2) JETS 3) MDLZ 4) ZIM 5) TAN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SOFI 2) CVNA 3) FUL 4) MTN 5) NMRA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) XLE 4) PTF 5) XLK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.6% 2) Alt Energy +2.9% 3) Oil Service +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HSAI, BBAR, TSSI, BMA, TGS, RGTI, SUPV, AVXL, GGAL, NBIS, TEO, CSIQ, CEPU, SGML, ZIM, SYNA, BROS, SEDG, ATOM, ENVX, PAM, SERV, COHR, U, CEG, LYFT, TMDX, ECG, ETON, HPK, LUNR, FLNG, ARQT, CRESY, TRMD, BWLP, YPF, NET, UBER, DCTH, MDB and SFM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AXP 2) NTAP 3) OTLY 4) PRMW 5) FLR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NRXP 2) MODG 3) U 4) NET 5) CANG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IYW 2) XLP 3) OIH 4) XLC 5) SMH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • ISM Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to fall to 48.2 versus 48.4 in Nov.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Dec. is estimated to rise to 51.8 versus 50.3 in Nov.

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Dec. is estimated at 16.5M versus 16.5M in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • (MTH) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count and the EIA nat gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.7 -11.2
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 73.7% of Issues Advancing, 24.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .83 +7.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$226.7M
  • 27 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 53.2% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.0 +4.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.1 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.7 -.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,683.7 -.04%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 28.0 (FEAR) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 13.5 -12.0%
  • Vix 17.3 -.5%
  • Total Put/Call .82 +3.8%

Wednesday, January 01, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @NickSortor
  • @DisrespectedThe 
  • @LaraLogan
  • @rawsalerts
  • @robbystarbuck
  • New Orleans Superintendent of Police Anne Kirkpatrick is ALSO an instructor for the FBI’s Leadership Training Program, where she instructs on "Bias and Diversity". She’s the chief of New Orleans Police Dept and a DEI teacher. DEI is a danger to the security of our country. (pic)
  • @KashPatel_News
  • @Zerohedge
  • @C_Herridge
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • Former FDA Commissioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, says Bird-Flu could be a “High Impact Event”. He wants more testing, and says 10 Million stockpiled doses of vaccines are now likely outdated and he wants newer vaccines to be stockpiled. DID YOU KNOW… • Dr. Scott Gottlieb is a member of the Pfizer board of directors and has been since 2019. —— YES…. Pfizer is working on a mRNA Bird-flu vaccine. • Gottlieb is a partner at New Enterprise Associates (NEA) Gottlieb, which invests in healthcare companies and could theoretically include companies involved in flu research or vaccine development. • Gottlieb is a board member of Illumina, Inc, a company focused on genomic technologies, which could play a role in rapid diagnostics or research into viruses like bird flu. • Gottlieb is a board member at Aetion, Inc…. This company focuses on drug development and their analytical capabilities could support research into flu vaccines or treatments. There are many more connections to him financially benefitting from Bird Flu. (video)
  • @NicHulscher
  • @charliekirk11
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Amuse
  • @LightOnLiberty
  • @paintsaints
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @FiveTimesAugust
  • @matttttt187
  • @officer_Lew
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @MarioNawful
  • @DC_Draino
  • @WideAwakeMedia
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 +3.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.23%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.67 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.1 +.02%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.