Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful
  • ARE CHINESE CARGO PLANES SECRETLY DELIVERING WEAPONS TO IRAN? Three Chinese Boeing 747 freighters reportedly departed mainland China over the weekend, turning off transponders and diverting from filed flight plans near Iranian airspace. Radar data shows flights Luxembourg to Dubai vanishing over Central Asia before dropping off near Iran, never arriving in Europe. The aircraft reportedly carried heavy military equipment known to be used by Chinese military contractors, delivered just days after Israeli strikes crippled Iranian missile and air defense infrastructure. While unconfirmed, the timing and secretive flight path suggest military equipment or systems transfers.
  • ISRAEL HIT IRAN’S TOP OIL AND GAS SITES INCLUDING SOUTH PARS AND TEHRAN DEPOT. Israel targeted major Iranian energy facilities over the past week, including the massive South Pars gas field (Phase 14), the Fajr Jam gas plant, and Tehran’s Shahran oil depot. The strike on South Pars Phase 14 halted production of 12 million cubic meters of gas. Fajr Jam, one of Iran’s largest gas processing plants, was also damaged. The Shahran facility, a critical fuel storage and distribution hub for Tehran, was among the confirmed targets. 
  • BREAKING: ARAK NUCLEAR COMPLEX UNDER EVACUATION ORDER OUTSIDE TEHRAN. This evacuation order, which is first outside of Tehran, is for the Arak Nuclear Complex, which contains a 40MW heavy water nuclear reactor believed to be non-operational.
  • U.S. NAVY HITS 2025 RECRUITING GOAL 3 MONTHS EARLY. The U.S. Navy has met its recruiting target for Fiscal Year 2025 three months ahead of schedule, adding 40,600 future sailors. Officials say morale is surging across the force. 
  • FOX POLL: 73% SAY IRAN IS "REAL THREAT" TO U.S. SECURITY. New Fox News survey shows dramatic 13-point surge in Americans viewing Iran as national security threat, with majorities across all parties agreeing. Yet voters remain split on Israeli strikes: -49% approve -46% disapprove. Key findings:  
  • GROK 3 UNLEASHED WITH MAJOR PRODUCTIVITY UPGRADES. Grok 3 now scans 50-page PDFs in seconds, writes human-quality content, delivers structured research answers, and builds full-stack apps with zero code. It finds insights, answers doc questions, pulls real-time data from X, compares viewpoints, and outputs deploy-ready code. From whitepapers to apps, it’s all automated.
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @unusual_whales
  • @DC_Draino
  • @KobeissiLetter

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Iran-Israel Ceasefire Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.1 -6.9%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .63 +71.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.6 +2.9% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.79 -.18%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 187.4 -.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.14 +1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.0 -7.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -14.0
  • Total Put/Call .91 -3.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.34 -.74%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$94.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.2 -1.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.0 +.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 224.0 +3.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.2 +1.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.3 +1.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 95.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.0 +1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.5 +1.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 112.77 +2.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.15%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 3.5 basis point +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 609.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 unch. 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.1 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.6 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.7 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.28 +.07:  Growth Rate +9.5% unch., P/E 21.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.22% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 432.75 +.23: Growth Rate +15.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 -14.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .85 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% -.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.5% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.62% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  89.4% (+6.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 60.0%(+6.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
  • US Military Action Against Iran Before July 55.0% -11.0 percentage points
  • Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 34.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 47.0% -8.0 percentage points 
  • Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 69.0% +4.0 percentage points 
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -116 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -6.5% 2) Energy -.5% 3) Defense -.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • V, PYPL, MA, TECX, VRNT, TCOM, BTDR, TMDX and SBET
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AMKR 2) GRAB 3) VERV 4) CRCL 5) QXO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RGC 2) ACB 3) ALL 4) SRPT 5) DNUT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLV 3) XLU 4) XLP 5) OIH

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Banks +2.0% 2) Regional Banks +1.7% 3) Alt Energy +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LZMH, CRCL, ARQQ, SYM, OSCR, GOGO, AAOI, QXO, SRRK, COIN, URGN, GRAL, GMS, NNE, LFMD, UPST, ASTS, BKSY, KFY, TSSI, PACS, PSIX, SITC, LMND, AEVA, OUST, CRDO, PBPB, MRVL, ORA, INOD, VITL, MP, SOFI, SEDG, SKB, PHH, OM, SOFI, PLNT, CC, PAGP, PENN, PPTA, WLY, PAA, LTH, DVAX, TGS, JBL, LEU, RDDT, CRK, BTSG, DDOG, ENPH, NUE, AMSC, STT and TEN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) INVZ 2) CRCL 3) CONL 4) SYM 5) ASTL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RELI 2) SRRK 3) COIN 4) FLL 5) GMS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XAR 2) KOMP 3) SMH 4) VGT 5) XRT
Charts:

Friday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ACN)/3.32
  • (KMX)/1.16
  • (DRI)/2.97
  • (KR)/1.45 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for June is estimated to rises to -1.5 versus -4.0 in May. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Leading Index for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -1.0% decline in April.  

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, American Diabetes Assoc. Scientific Conference, (LEU) annual meeting and the (CAVA) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Friday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -5.2% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.0 -2.7
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 70.9% of Issues Advancing, 26.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.41 +4.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$9.3M
  • 47 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
  • 42.9% (+3.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.2 -1.7
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.0 +2.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.4 +.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 166.2 +.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (Moved from GREED to NEUTRAL) -5.0
  • Polymarket: US Military Action Against Iran Before July 61.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 30.0% -9.0 percentage points
  • 1-Day Vix 19.2 -8.6%
  • Vix 20.0 -7.6%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:
  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge 
  • @MarioNawful   
  • IRAN LEADER INVOKES “KHEIBAR” - AND IT’S NOT JUST HISTORICAL. Iran’s Supreme Leader just dropped a not-so-subtle message: “In the name of Haidar, the battle begins. Ali returns to Khaybar with his Zulfiqar.” Allahu Akbar. Fiery imagery. Messianic tone. And a direct invocation of the 7th-century Battle of Khaybar. But here’s the catch: “Kheibar” isn’t just a historical reference - it’s also the name of one of Iran’s most advanced ballistic missiles, unveiled in May 2023.
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @C_3C_3
@TheInsidePaper
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 +3.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 49.0 +2.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.
  • Polymarket: US Military Action Against Iran Before July 66.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 39.0% +10.0 percentage points
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.3 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.40% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Escalating Iran/Israel War Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.02 -.4% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -6.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.8 -8.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.8 +5.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -2.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +.3% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.21 +.10:  Growth Rate +9.5% unch., P/E 21.6 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.22% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 432.52 +.12: Growth Rate +15.8% unch., P/E 33.1 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .90 -11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -.3 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% -.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.61% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 +6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  85.5% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 53.5%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -70 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -4.5% 2) Airlines -3.5% 3) Homebuilding -3.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • RBRK, PRO, LEN, OKLO, TMUS, GLXY, ADBE, HASI, CTRI, POWL, QUBT, LMND, SBET, SGRY, FSLR, RDW, DYN and ENPH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) APPS 2) WMB 3) SEDG 4) BUR 5) CRCL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ENPH 2) FSLR 3) RUN 4) SEDG 5) RDW
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) GDX 3) MAGS 4) GOAU 5) URA