Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.27 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 93.0 -.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.09% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.38% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
• S&P 500 futures +.13%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Consumer Discretionary/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.02%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.5 +7.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.7 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.8 +3.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.59 +.14:  Growth Rate +13.6% unch., P/E 22.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.40 +.37: Growth Rate +24.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 +.5
• US Yield Curve 57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -.1 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.7% -1.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.58 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.1% (-1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 44.6%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -438 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/utility sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.3% 2) Gambling -1.12% 3) Pharma -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SCHL, KR, MDU, ARE, MBX, MEDP, PHVS, ACLX, PHG, CHA, PVH, SNOW, PTRN, BBW, QURE, CAPR, SYM and SUPX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CIEN 2) DG 3) HTZ 4) SO 5) PATH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SYM 2) HOV 3) PVH 4) GCO 5) SNOW

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XLK 4) IDU 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Nuclear +4.6% 2) Computer Hardware +2.7% 3) Defense +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PATH, USAR, AXGN, BIOA, ASTS, FLNG, EOSE, AEVA, SAIC, EYPT, OKLO, SMR, DSGX, BE, DG, LUNR, IONQ, VKTX, MPLT, SNDK, KROS, SERV, AVTX, WYFI, NVA, RKLB, KALV, FLY, DCI, ATRC, OCUL, NGNE, BAH, DXYZ, NTSK, FTK, DXYZ, CHOW, PRCT, GEV, JMIA, SITM, COHR, FLOC, BAP, OII, AVBP, CBLL, OMDA, SKWD, UTI, MIDD, IDYA, UPB, LC, CNK, ALK, MXL, MCHB, META, CRM, KLIC, CALM, CM, EGBN, IMAX, ZIM, CHAC, HRL, IVZ, TPR and TTAN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CCCC 2) RBRK 3) DG 4) IVZ 5) VALE 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PATH 2) DG 3) AXGN 4) BIOA 5) DCI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) KRE 3) VGT 4) XBI 5) ARKK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (VSCO)/-.59

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

10:00 am EST

• Personal Income for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• Personal Spending for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
• The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.0 in Nov.
• The Univ. of Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Dec. is estimated to rise +4.4% versus a prior expected gain of +4.5% in Nov. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Oct. is estimated at $10.48B versus $13.093B in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• (NOW) 5-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (MSFT) annual meting, (SLG) investor meeting, (CPRT) annual meeting and the American Society of Hematology Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.7 -2.1
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 52.0% of Issues Advancing, 45.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .60 -51.2%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$7.4M
  
• 116 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 62.0% (-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +2.1

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 28.0% +2.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 32.0% +4.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 38.0% -7.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 93.4 +1.6%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 413.0 -4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.7 +.3%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.2 +1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (FEAR) +12.0 points
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -6.1%
  
• Vix 16.0 -.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -7.1%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has reiterated the country’s long-held position that it understands and respects China’s view that Taiwan is an “inalienable part of its territory,” without specifically agreeing to the ‘One China’ principle.
• The US is inviting Poland to the next Group of 20 summit — and plans to shun South Africa — when President Donald Trump hosts the forum of the largest global economies in 2026, says Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 
• China's behavior is driving its neighbors to welcome something once unthinkable: A larger security role for Japan, writes @KarishmaJourno. 
• The yuan is inching close the a key psychological level of 7 per dollar reflecting optimism over improved US-China relations but the gradual appreciation shows Beijing is tightly managing its gains. 
• Bets on rising consumer prices in Japan are keeping a lid on bond yields when adjusted for inflation, in turn reducing their ability to support the yen.
• The SEC delayed for the second time this year the deadline for hedge funds and other big investors to comply with much-watched disclosure rules for short selling and related stock lending.   
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• What To Know About The '764' Online Predator Network And The Federal Crackdown. 
• The Washington Post's Attack On Veterans' Integrity. 
• Alex Karp RIPS into the @nytimes over their article claiming Palantir is building a database to spy on Americans. “I bet at the NY Times, a lot of people read that article about us and were ashamed. Did you go to your editor and say, how did you write something this technically illiterate? Did you? Or didn’t you? Because if I’m the only one speaking up, you’re gonna get a world of technical illiteracy. “You better speak up. Because everyone who thinks I’m a ridiculous fascist, they’re speaking up. They write about it every day. “You cannot blame the far left and far right idiots when they speak up for their views. Do you speak up for your views?” (video)
• We have independently confirmed @AlexBerenson’s excellent reporting below. The Biden Admin lied to us all about the Covid vaccines and our children. Kids died as a result. And they actively covered it up and misled about it.
• "It listed the URLs of “fake news” websites that advertisers could import into their Google AdSense profiles to block sites en masse from receiving their advertising. This included Breitbart and other alt-right and conservative sites such as Zero Hedge and The Federalist".
• The Link Between Transgenderism and Autism.
• Impossible to believe… would the EU’s righteous and moralistic leader Ursula “Pfizer” von der Leyen ever help cover up EU corruption? Maybe she should call Yermak for tips.   
• Billions Spent By One-Party-Rule Maryland Democrats With Little Oversight.
• US Data Center Power Demand Could Reach 106 GW By 2035.
• "What The F**k Just Happened?" Homeless Man Violently Attacks NYU Student Walking To Class.
• Trump To Roll Back Biden-Era Fuel Standards, Admin Says It Will Save Americans $109 Billion.
• Wikipedia earned $184M from donations last year. Keeping the servers running costs lest than $5M. They don't need your money.     
• NEW: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent demolishes The New York Times at their own summit. Bessent ripped apart the "fever swamp" New York Times on stage at the New York Times' DealBook Summit. "I actually don't read the New York Times anymore... occasionally people send me articles and there's just this fever swamp." "You had what was one of the greatest scandals of all time... Joe Biden's diminished capacity and the cover-up. Where was the New York Times?" (video)
• DOE's Hyperspeed Reactors.
• *TRUMP PRAISES NVIDIA, CONFIRMS TALK WITH HUANG.
• "If we don't have energy growth, we can't have industrial growth. If we don't have industrial growth, we can't have job growth. It's as simple as that." - Jensen Huang on Joe Rogan. 
• Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid As Bad Data Lifts Rate-Cut Odds.  

• @CNBC

• Transports are breaking out. This delivery giant in the space deserves close attention, charts show.
• Buy these consumer stocks that may get a boost from a Fed rate cut, says Evercore ISI.
• Salesforce beats on earnings, issues better-than-expected revenue forecast.  
• Trump's South Korea tariff cuts are major boost for Hyundai and GM.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Salesforce, Five Below, C3. ai and more
  .
• Congressional stock ownership is 'outrageous,' says Rep. Mike Levin, calling for ban
  .
• Stock futures are little changed after markets closer higher as rate cut bets strengthen: Live updates
  .
• Asia markets set to open mixed after Wall Street gains on cooler-than-expected jobs data and rate-cut hopes
  .
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session
  .
• CNBC Daily Open: Once again, bad data is good news for market
  .   
    

• @WSJ  

• Your hotel room has been shrinking. Why wardrobes are vanishing, minibars are disappearing and sinks are ending up in the entryway as hotel operators hunt for the most profitable design. 
• A widely cited study on economic damage from climate change was retracted following criticism from peers.
• The doctor who repeatedly supplied “Friends” star Matthew Perry with the drug ketamine in the weeks before his death was sentenced to 30 months in federal prison.

• @TheTranscript

• Snowflake CFO on the disappointing Q4 guide. "...on the 4Q guidance. All I would say is that 4Q is a little tricky in the sense that you're giving the 4Q guidance and the annual guidance at the same time. And so don't read too much into that". $SNOW: -8% AH.
• $CRM CEO: ""We are raising fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to $41.45 billion to $41.55 billion, and Q3 cRPO was exceptional, up 11% year-over-year at $29.4 billion, signaling a powerful pipeline of future revenue,".

• @LauraLoomer

• Not only is Biden National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan @jakejsullivan married to Democrat Rep. Maggie Goodlander, who is one of the Seditious 6, but Maggie Goodlander worked for Biden’s Attorney General Merrick Garland and Lisa Monaco at the DOJ. Lisa Monaco even attended the wedding of Sullivan and Goodlander. Goodlander gave a max donation of $2,800 to the Congressional campaign of Dan Driscoll when he ran for Congress in 2020. He is now the US Army Secretary.

• @LaraLogan

• Pres Trump, after months of waiting, watching, investigating & first-hand reporting, it appears increasingly obvious you are being set-up to fail & there will be no coming back from this if you do not stop it now. The “establishment” seems to have it’s hooks in your Admin & they are sabotaging your efforts, blocking implementation of your orders, sidelining your political appointees, leaving countless critical positions unstaffed & they have allowed your enemies to either stay in place or come back through the door to occupy key terrain. Almost a year into your Presidency, you do not have your own Administrator at agencies like TSA and FEMA & in other critical areas like intel at Dept of War, you still have career bureaucrats whose loyalties are most definitely not to you or your Admin occupying many deputy positions instead of your appointees. These are just a few examples.

• @ProjectConstitu

• JUST IN: Pentagon LITERALLY Laughs When Asked If France Tried to Assassinate Candace Owens… We Are So Screwed!! Zionist influencer @camhigby (now credentialed inside the most secure military complex on earth) asks Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson, with a giggle: “First question, don’t laugh… does DoD have any evidence of a French military plot to assassinate Candace Owens?” Kingsley smirks: “Interesting question… not that I’m aware of lol. I’ll maybe get back to you.” That’s it. That’s the whole response. They’re literally laughing in our faces.
• IT’S OFFICIAL: CANDACE OWENS Just ACCEPTED TPUSA’S Live-Sream CHALLENGE – The RECKONING IS Coming To PHOENIX. 

• @GlockfordFiles

• Why is Speaker Johnson blocking Elise Stefanik’s illegal government weaponization provision and siding with communist democrat Jamie Raskin? Inquiring minds want to know. (pic)

• @amuse

• LEAK: Reports say Sen. Mark Kelly leaked classified portions of the Pentagon IG’s “Signalgate” findings while his party publicly attacked Hegseth. If true his actions would constitute a violation of the Espionage Act. An internal Pentagon review determined that Pete Hegseth’s March 2025 sharing of Yemen strike information over Signal violated departmental rules but was not illegal due to his declassification authority. Sources now say Sen. Mark Kelly disclosed classified elements of that IG report to the Wall Street Journal while Democratic officials were publicly criticizing Hegseth. The reported leak raises questions about the treatment of sensitive oversight documents and the boundary between political messaging and classified material.

• @OcraziocornPop

• BREAKING: AG Pam Bondi is on Fox News complaining to Sean Hannity about illegal aliens destroying America. She says what the Biden administration did by allowing illegal aliens and unvetted aliens into our country was "CRIMINAL". IF IT'S CRIMINAL, WHY HASN'T ANYONE BEEN ARRESTED YET? 

• @TonySeruga

• Barack Obama’s War Room is located at 2446 Belmont Rd NW, Washington, DC 20008 and is just a short 4 minute stroll away from the Islamic Center of Washington D.C., but that’s for another day. GPS—Thanksgiving week visitors over a 5 day span included Jake Sullivan, Victoria Nuland, Samantha Power, Lisa Monaco, and Susan Rice.

• @DeItaone

• TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SHIFTS FOCUS TO ROBOTICS. Politico reports that after its AI push, the Trump administration is now turning attention to robotics. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been meeting with robotics CEOs and is “all in” on accelerating the sector’s development, according to sources.

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• New from @EmeraldRobinson. What "MAGA influencers" were paid to pretend unsolicited mass mailed election ballots were a 'good idea?' Now this reveal should be really, really good ... One-in-Five Mail-In Voters Admit They Cheated in 2020 Election.

• @Laurenboebert

• I will be signing on to this today!! It’s absolutely unconscionable that a bill banning Members of Congress from trading individual stocks needs a discharge petition just to get a vote on the House Floor. Bring it forward. Let the American people see where everyone stands. (video)

• @lsferguson

• Stefanik Says Speaker Johnson is Protecting the DEEP STATE — Claims He’s Blocking Provision to Root Out the Illegal Weaponization Behind Crossfire Hurricane and Arctic Frost — Siding With Raskin Against Trump Republicans.

• @C_3C_3 

• In 2020 the SCOTUS ruled 5-4 that the US Census couldnt include a citizenship question. Insane. So illegals weren’t counted separately in the Census. This crazy decision resulted in Dems getting more Congressional seats. Do you know who the deciding vote was? John Roberts.

• @Breaking911

• TRUMP: “The SLEAZEBAG Governor of Colorado, Jared Polis, refuses to allow an elderly woman, Tina Peters, who was unfairly convicted of what the Democrats do, cheating on Elections, out of jail!…”

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -3.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.0 -1.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.82 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 92.9 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.07% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.44% +1.0 basis point 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 -.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.58%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.