Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Escalating Iran/Israel War Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.02 -.4% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -4.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.8 -8.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.8 +5.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -2.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +.3% n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.21 +.10:  Growth Rate +9.5% unch., P/E 21.6 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.22% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 432.52 +.12: Growth Rate +15.8% unch., P/E 33.1 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 +12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .90 -11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.1
• US Yield Curve 43.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -.3 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.61% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 +6.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  85.5% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 53.5%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long