Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.94 -.04%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% -2.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 93.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.15%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.9 -.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.5 -1.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -1.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +1.4% +1.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.51 +.23: Growth Rate +9.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.24% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 433.34 +.59: Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .04 -22.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +33.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.1
- US Yield Curve 46.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% -.8 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.62% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 +4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 60.3% (+4.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 44.3%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- US Military Action Against Iran Before July 45.0% -10.0 percentage points
- Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 34.0% unch.
- US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 51.0% +4.0 percentage points
- Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 73.0% +4.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/financial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
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