Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• South Korea’s $206.5 billion sovereign wealth fund is standing by US Treasuries as a core holding, undeterred by recent market volatility.
• Italy will increase its imports of US soybeans as part of a new effort to rebalance trade between the two countries, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told reporters after meeting with her Italian counterpart.
• The US will start reopening ports to Mexican livestock in phases, after trade along the southern border had been halted in May by the spread of a parasitic fly. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• A Paris-based ESG data firm specialized in real estate is planning to dramatically increase its presence in the US, based on an assessment that Americans will soon need to pay more attention to how energy efficient their homes and offices are.
• A group of Senate Republicans is pushing a plan to soften an aggressive planned phase out of subsidies for wind and solar projects under President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending package.
• The US Treasury didn't take measures that could have prevented or mitigated major cyberattacks, a Bloomberg News investigation found. 
• Accelerant Holdings filed for an IPO, joining a rush of insurance-related listings in the US.
• BlackRock’s Rick Rieder sees more opportunity in the stock market at the moment than at the long-end of the Treasury curve. 
• On the heels of its blockbuster IPO, stablecoin issuer Circle said it is seeking to create a national trust bank in the US. 
• Here's your Evening Briefing. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• Quantum Meets AI: Morgan Stanley Maps Out Next Tech Frontier.
• A Translation Guide To Progressive Slavespeak.
• New California Laws Effective July 1 Could Impact Students, Paychecks, Airbnb-Stays.
• Disney Hit With More Layoffs As Latest Woke Projects Bomb Hard.
• Ultra-Processed Foods Linked To Brain Changes That Drive Overeating. 
• The Complete Flows, Technicals & Positioning Market Summary As We Enter The Second Half.  
• Social Media: The Biggest Threat To Teens' Mental Health? 
• Dollar Crashes To Worst H1 In 52 Years As Stocks Soar To Best Quarter Since Q1 2023 Despite Tariff Tantrum. 

• @CNBC 

• Meta shares hit all-time high as Mark Zuckerberg goes on AI hiring blitz.
• Despite tariffs, Andy Jassy says Amazon hasn't 'seen prices appreciably go up,' so far. 
• Tuesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 

• @FoxNews

• Survivor of Mao's Cultural Revolution warns New Yorkers to "wake up" about @ZohranKMamdani: "He is a full-fledged Communist". (video)
• Fox News Poll: 6 in 10 are proud of US today – the most in more than a decade.

• @GatewayPundit

• Chinese Drug Gangs Buying up Rural US Land, says new Tucker Carlson Documentary.
• JUST IN: Senate Rejects Measure to Kick Illegals Off Medicaid 56-44.
• Democrat Infighting: Hakeem Jeffries Demands Socialist NYC Mayoral Candidate Mamdani ‘Clarify’ Defense of Genocidal ‘Intifada’ Chant.
• DOJ Charges 324 in Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History — $14.6 BILLION Scheme Involved 96 Doctors, Nurses, and Pharmacists Targeting Medicare and Medicaid.

• @WallStreetApes 

• Finally MTG says it out loud. America funded the Ukraine War, “How come we couldn’t watch that war on television”. ‌ There was no war footage. ‌ American taxpayers ARE STILL paying to: ‌ - Fund the Ukraine Government - Paying for Ukraine public sector retirements, salaries and pensions - Our tax dollars are still being used to boost Ukraine’s economy and military Total U.S. Aid: As of March 2025, the U.S. has allocated approximately $182.8 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine and the region, with $83.4 billion disbursed and $140.5 billion committed. This includes military, economic, and humanitarian aid. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• AOC built her entire political brand on being a “Girl from the Bronx.” But is that true? No. It’s a lie. I travelled to AOC’s actual hometown to investigate. It’s safe, clean, patriotic and wealthy. It’s a slice of small town American heaven. Here’s where AOC is really from… (video)

• @LawrenceSellin

• Chinese Fifth Column. In addition to her alleged criminal activities, Linda Sun (Sun Wen 孙雯), former Deputy Chief of Staff to NY Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul, has been deeply involved with Pro-CCP Chinese-American groups and the Chinese Consulate. There are many like her.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 +.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 50.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% unch. 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 44.0% -16.0 percentage points

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.17 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.4 -1.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.21% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.03%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.