Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.06 -.21%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.44% +8.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.36% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 94.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.9 euros/megawatt-hour +4.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.4 +5.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.4 -.9 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.5 -.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.79 +.09: Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.21% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 431.52 +.23: Growth Rate +15.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.19 -24.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.1 +.4
- US Yield Curve 46.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.7% -.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.61% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 +8.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 78.8% (+3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 55.6%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +331 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -88 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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