Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.14%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% -6.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 94.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.9 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.5 -7.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.4 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.8 -1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.56 +.10: Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 21.8 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.23% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 431.04 +.36: Growth Rate +15.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.39 -14.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.1 -.3
- US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0% -1.4 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% -7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.61% +21.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -12.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 81.3% (-4.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 58.6%(+5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +54 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -105 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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