Monday Watch

Around X:

• @RealDonaldTrump

• President Trump Participates in the 250th Anniversary of the U.S. Army Grand Military Parade. (video)

• @Business 

• Israel and Iran bombarded each other for a third day, with international concern growing that the conflict will spread across one of the world’s key oil-producing regions.
• A series of strategic gambles by Israel and Iran are now playing out. The outcome stands to change the Middle East.
• Financial markets are set to reopen Monday with investors squarely focused on escalating geopolitical tensions as Israel and Iran continue to bombard each other with no sign of a pause.
• Israel’s air strikes on Iran, followed by the Islamic Republic’s retaliation, rippled through markets Friday, prompting traders to pile into options for protection.
• Japan’s once-slumbering bond market has roared back to life with a burst of volatility that is echoing around the world.
• The Bank of Japan is set to consider whether to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace while also leaving its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
• The US Export-Import Bank is considering providing up to $120 million for a rare earths project by Critical Metals in Greenland, Reuters reported Sunday, citing a letter of interest.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Gold rose toward a record on Monday, as Israel signaled no letup in its campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
• Few expect a rate cut from the Fed this week, so investors will focus on Chair Powell's press conference for guidance on what might come next. 
• Sarepta Therapeutics said a second patient has died of acute liver failure after being treated with its gene therapy for a rare muscle disorder.

• @Zerohedge 

• "Iran could produce its first quantity of 25kg of weapons grade uranium in Fordow in as little as two to three days".
• Tipping The Scales: Why So Many Cases Against Trump Are Heard By Democrat-Appointed Judges.
• Marc Andreessen's 'Cold War' Warning: U.S. Must Win AI Race To Prevent CCP Robot Overlords, Techno-Marxist Brainwashing.
• Trump Hints At 'Possible' US Entry Into War Amid Stepped-Up Israeli Daytime Attacks On Tehran.
• One year ago Polymarket was "only" the election hub. Since then it has become the go to event portal for finance and geopolitics and its rising traffic reflects that. (list)
• Trump: No More "Bullshit" Windmills.
• Hartnett: The Top 20 Charts For The 2020s.(graph)
• Old White Boomers By Day, Antifa By Night: 'No Kings' Color Revolution.
• Boelter is believed to have targeted Democrats who voted against healthcare for illegal aliens. He wrote a "manifesto" that Minnesota officials refuse to release to the public. Boelter was also appointed to a Workforce Development Board by Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
• Irrational Bond Markets Offer A Great Opportunity. (graph)
• No Climate, No Gender: Canada’s G7 Summit Agenda Shows Shift In Priorities.
• Europe's Populist Parties Keeps Gaining Ground, But Cannot Get Into Power.
• The Heart Behind The US Army’s 250 Years Of Service.
• Sanctuary State Governors Double Down On Illegal Immigration In Tense Capitol Hearing.  
• Making The Power Grid Great Again.
• 'Make Money First, Make Sense Later' - Top Goldman Trader Lays Out What The Equity Market Is Discounting
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• Can AI Improve Election Integrity?

• @WSJ

• Israel’s devastating attack on Iran has put the Islamic Republic in existential peril and exposed deep vulnerabilities in the intelligence services.
• The U.S. military is operating in the air, on land and at sea to shoot down Iranian missiles fired at Israel, tilting Washington toward more direct involvement in the widening conflict.
• Elite hedge funds are in a pitched battle for the world’s top traders. The price tag for a young stock picker can now top $100 million. 
• From @WSJopinion: As long as Chinese companies are putting backdoors and malware on American devices, state AGs can help protect consumers.

• @GatewayPundit

• War Pig Lindsey Graham Demands US Dive Headfirst into Israel’s War, Pushes for Regime Change — ‘Help Finish the Job’. 
• Scientists in Antarctica Puzzled as They Discover Mysterious Radio Waves Coming From Below the Ice Sheet.
• WW3 WATCH: Britain Announces Military Build-Up in Middle East as Iranian Conflict Escalates. 
• Joe Rogan Reveals Two Former U.S. Presidents Pressured Spotify to Censor His Views on COVID.
• North Carolina State Rep Waves Trump’s Decaptitated Head at ‘No Kings’ Protest: ‘Some Cuts May Be Necessary’.
• Minnesota Gunman Vance Boelter’s Wife Detained for Questioning After Traffic Stop Uncovers Gun, Ammo, Cash, and Multiple Passports: Report. 
• EXPOSED: Shanghai Billionaire’s Chinese Communist Party Network Fuels America’s Anti-ICE Riots.

• @FoxNews 

• President @realDonaldTrump on Iran-Israel: "I hope there's going to be a deal." (video)
• Sen. Rand Paul said that he's not an 'absolute no' on Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' and revealed what it would take for him to vote on the legislation. 
• Emergency responders search for people in need after an Iranian attack against a city in Northern Israel.
• @HumaAbedin, longtime @HillaryClinton aide and ex-wife of disgraced ex-Congressman Anthony Weiner, just married @AlexanderSoros — son of billionaire and mega Democrat funder @georgesoros — in a star-studded Hamptons wedding attended by top Dems from Hillary to Harris.

• @MarioNawful

• IRANIAN MISSILE HITS APARTMENT BUILDING IN ISRAEL. A residential tower in central Israel has taken heavy damage after a direct ballistic missile hit. The strike, launched from Iran, tore into the building in Petah Tikva, leaving debris scattered across the area. (video)
• SOMETHING’S UP: U.S. AIR FORCE TANKERS HEADING TOWARD EUROPE!? If you looked up today and saw a swarm of massive Air Force planes - you’re not imagining things. A large number of U.S. aerial refueling tankers - essentially flying gas stations - just took off from bases across the country and appear to be en route to Europe. Whatever’s coming, it doesn’t look small. You don’t launch this many tankers unless you’re preparing to keep a lot of jets in the air. (map)
• IRANIAN MISSILES STRIKE ISRAELI POWER PLANT AND CIVILIAN AREAS. Fires and debris now fill the streets of central Israel as emergency crews rush to impacted zones. The IDF has confirmed multiple missile strikes in the latest barrage, including direct hits in civilian areas of Tel Aviv. In the north, a major power facility in Haifa sustained a direct hit, raising serious concerns over critical infrastructure. (video)
• TRUMP: U.S. WILL SECURE GREAT TRADE DEALS. "We have our great deals. All we have to is send a letter: this is what you're going to have to pay. But I think we'll have a few new trade deals, yeah." (video)
• EARTHQUAKE HITS NEAR IRAN’S FORDOW SITE. A magnitude 2.5 quake struck Qom Province just as Israeli strikes were reported in the area. The tremor occurred near the Fordow nuclear facility but was deep enough to suggest natural origins. Still, the timing raises eyebrows as tensions - and explosions - shake northern Iran.
• BREAKING: AFGHANISTAN THREATENS U.S. IF IT ENTERS WAR WITH IRAN. Afghanistan has issued a stark warning: if the U.S. joins military action against Iran, “we will take actions as well.” It’s a direct threat from a country with 2 decades of battlefield experience against American forces. What was once a regional conflict is now drawing in old enemies with long memories.
• PANIC IN IRAN: TEHRAN RESIDENTS JAM HIGHWAYS TO ESCAPE ADDITIONAL AIRSTRIKE. The capital of Iran is in full-blown panic mode. Massive traffic jams stretch for miles as residents flee the city, terrified of another Israeli air force attack. This comes after recent strikes have rattled nerves and sparked a wave of fear across the country. Cars are crawling out of the city like it’s the end of the world - or at least the start of another one.

• @LauraLoomer   

• NEW THREAD: STATE DEPARTMENT VETTING CRISIS CONTINUES. OBAMA HOLDOVERS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE JCPOA (otherwise known as the Iran Nuclear Deal) STILL EMPLOYED AT US STATE DEPARTMENT WHERE THEY ARE ADVISING ON IRAN NEGOTIATIONS IN THE NEW TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Minister says Iran will halt its strikes on Israel if Israel ceases its strikes on Iran. Just hours ago, President Trump said "we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel."

• @WallStreetApes

• George Soros funded the Los Angeles ICE riots. - He funded the No Kings Protest. - He funded the anti- Elon Musk protests to stop DOGE. "George Soros honestly is misanthropic. He claims to be doing good but actually he is tearing down the fabric of society." Elon Musk says George Soros is responsible for destabilizing our cities, “How can we be the most powerful country in the world, and it's not safe to walk around our cities? What the hell is going on? — Soros”. (video)

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• LA protesters tearing down historic statutes: (video)

• @BrilynHollyhand

• BREAKING: Over 56% of young white liberal women (ages 18–29) have been diagnosed with a mental health condition, per Pew. This isn’t just a meme anymore. It's data.

• @DC_Draino

• The Minnesota assassin was not only wearing a police officer uniform with taser and vest, but they also had an SUV with police lights that looked like a squad car. This was a professional hit job. (video)

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: President Trump just announced he is EXPANDING ICE RAIDS in “Democrat Power Centers” like Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago “These cities use illegals aliens to expand their voter base and CHEAT in elections,” Trump said. (pic)
• JUST IN: Minnesota officials have one again REFUSED to release assassin Vance Boelter’s manifesto, saying there’s not enough “there”. THEN JUST RELEASE IT! Let the PEOPLE decide! 

• @GeneralFlynn

• ATTENTION! I’ve been in the intelligence game long enough to know a psy-op when I see one. The “No Kings” protests aren’t spontaneous. They’re part of a broader strategy to undermine President Trump’s administration. The NGOs involved, Indivisible, CHIRLA, Unión del Barrio, and others, are part of a network of nearly 200 organizations, many of which have ties to the Democratic Party’s activist wing. The FBI’s even sniffing around, with Director Kash Patel probing the funding behind recent anti-ICE riots in LA. Why? Because when protests turn into looting and arson, it’s not about free speech, it’s about intent to destabilize.

• @bennyjohnson

• The suspected Minnesota shooter, appointed by Tim Walz, went from General Manager at 7-Eleven to CEO of an international NGO called “Red Lion Group” in Congo. There’s almost no public info on the NGO, except that it reportedly ran out of funding. USAID funded?

• @ElectionWiz

• BREAKING: riot underway in Los Angeles. (video)]
• BREAKING — Israel officially requests the US join ongoing war against Iran. (video) 

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: A Massachusetts federal judge just BLOCKED enforcement of President Trump's executive order requiring citizenship for federal elections. THIS IS UNREAL. A judge is now trying to let NONCITIZENS vote in elections. Judge Denise Casper, an OBAMA judge.

• @DataRepublican

• Vance Boelter, the suspect in today's shootings, was the CEO of an international NGO called the Red Lion Group. But I couldn't find any photographs or digital records of its work, only a generic website. The Red Lion Group appears to have run out of funding a month or two ago, as that is when he started looking for executive-level roles.

• @toolandtea

• NVIDIA just showed what the future of AI looks like at GTC Paris. Here’s the top 7 wildest stuff they announced. 1/ NVIDIA’s new NVL72 system connects 72 Blackwell GPUs with 130 TB/s bandwidth. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 -.04% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.9 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.41% +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 -3.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.