Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.3%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% -5.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.27% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 94.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -1.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.6 -4.5 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.44 +.27: Growth Rate +10.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% +14.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 445.85 +.77: Growth Rate +19.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.6 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 -41.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
- US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.7% +2.4 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 59.9%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% unch.
- Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% -15.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -97 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -137 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +163 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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