Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• French finance minister Eric Lombard said the European Union can clinch some form of a trade agreement with the US before a July 9 deadline.
• President Donald Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax cut bill prevailed in a crucial Senate test vote after hours of negotiations between Vice President JD Vance and GOP leaders and Republican holdouts.  
• China’s envoy to Canberra urged Australia not to be “incited” by NATO’s support for US demands to sharply raise defense spending and instead cooperate with Beijing. 
• US President Donald Trump characterized trade in cars between the US and Japan as unfair on Sunday, little more than a week before higher tariffs are set to kick in. 
• China firmly opposes any countries reaching trade agreements with the US that would sacrifice Chinese interests in exchange for tariff relief, the Ministry of Commerce said.
• Iran said it remains skeptical that a tentative US-brokered ceasefire with Israel would last, warning it’s prepared to respond to any fresh aggression. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• President Donald Trump said he has identified a buyer for the US operations of the TikTok social media app, but he won’t provide details for two weeks. 
• Taiwan said it’s made “constructive progress” in a second round of trade talks with the US
• President Donald Trump said he has identified a buyer for the US operations of the TikTok social media app, but he won’t provide details for two weeks.
• Some parts of the options markets are still showing signs of stress even after Middle East tensions eased. 
• It’s hard enough for governments to execute well on core functions like policing, schools and transit, says @mattyglesias. Why take on the assignment of running grocery stores?  
• Some investors are growing wary over the global stablecoin craze that has driven massive gains in shares of companies linked to the still-emerging technology. 
• Meta has hired four notable artificial intelligence researchers from OpenAI, ramping up a hiring spree for its Superintelligence group. 
• US bond traders gutted through turbulence to somehow find themselves notching profits as the first half ends. Now, they’re setting up for more gains.
• Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge  

• and trump wins again... *CANADA RESCINDS DIGITAL SERVICES TAX TO ADVANCE US TRADE TALKS.
• *CANADA SAYS TO RESUME US TRADE TALKS, TARGET DEAL BY JULY 21.
• How Canada's Digital Tax Exposes Brussels' Globalist Playbook: A Trump Retaliation.
• This Week Could Reshape The Fed Narrative.
• What Goldman's Top Traders Think About The Market As It Hits A New Record High.
• English Trucking Rule Takes Effect, Federal Probe Begins Of Sanctuary State Migrant CDL Pipeline.
• JAPAN MAY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -1.8% Y/Y; EST. 1.6%.
• *TILLIS SAYS HE WON'T SEEK REELECTION FOLLOWING ATTACK BY TRUMP.
• "When It's Too Dirty For The CIA..." Benz On USAID's Litany Of Corruption.
• Zohran Mamdani's Socialist Policies Would Put The Final Nail In New York's Coffin.
• Cattle Herd Rebuild Begins Just As Consumers Get Slaughtered By Record Beef Prices
• Texas Law Gives Grid Operator Power To Disconnect Data Centers During Crisis.
• *TRUMP: WE SHOULD BE AT 1% OR 2% INTEREST RATE.
• The Fed Bar To Cutting Is Slowly Being Lowered; Goldman Macro Traders.
• Mapping The World's Wealthiest Cities.
• Senate Advances Trump Tax & Spending Bill In Saturday Night Vote.
• China's Economy Spirals With No End In Sight, Says Kyle Bass
• The Business Of Broken Self-Worth In The Digital Age.

• @WSJ

• The Senate geared up Sunday for an all-night session of debate and amendment votes on the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” after Republicans narrowly advanced the measure in a 51-49 vote.
• After repeated splits with President Trump, Sen. Lindsey Graham has been able to find his way back to the inner circle—even convincing the president approve the high-stakes strike against Iran.
• Beijing is building a broad network of preschools across Tibetan areas, seeking to instill loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party early in life.
• Trump’s Criticism of Fed’s Rate Decisions Not Necessarily a Threat to Its Independence, BIS Says. 
• A new cruise passenger tax will go into effect in Mexico on July 1 as the government negotiates with Royal Caribbean and other companies.
• Sixth Street’s Alan Waxman says his publicly traded rivals are turning private credit into a commoditized, lower-returning business.
• Heard on the Street: Mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s policies could hurt a promising source of new housing supply, writes Carol Ryan.  

• @GatewayPundit

• Putin: “I Deeply Respect the Current American President – As You Know, He Survived Two Attempts on His Life. He’s Very Courageous” (Video)
• EU Commission ‘Queen’ Ursula von der Leyen Braces for No-Confidence Vote Showdown. 
• Communist NYC Mayoral Candidate Says “I Don’t Think We Should Have Billionaires” – Doubles Down on Targeting ‘Whiter Neighborhoods’ with Higher Taxes.
• NEW: Senate GOP Discovers Spine – Puts Three Key Provisions Including Defunding of Medicare for Illegals Back In “Big Beautiful Bill” Following Parliamentarian Ruling.
• BREAKING: Thom Tillis Won’t Seek Reelection After Trump Threatens to Primary Him. 
• Veteran NYPD Officers Signal Exodus if Zohran Mamdani Becomes Mayor.
• Gross: CBS "Reporter" Lisa Ling Uses Her Young Child to Push Leftist Political Agenda Fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome.
• Fatwa Calling for Muslims to Assassinate President Trump Issued by Iranian Ayatollah.
• State Department Confirms: Beijing Exploits U.S. Tech Platforms for Military Intelligence.
• Dead Democrats Keep Posting Online From Beyond the Grave — and No One Knows Who’s Behind It.
• Scandal Brews in the UK as New Female Intel Chief of MI6 Is Revealed To Be Granddaughter of Ukrainian Nazi Nicknamed ‘The Butcher’.
• Administrator Kelly Loeffler Announces Full-Scale Audit of SBA 8(a) Program After DOJ Finds Over $550 Million in Contracts Linked to Bribery and Fraud Scheme. 

• @FoxNews  

• Trump teases 'loading up' Abraham Accords with new nations after Middle East shakeup.
• If the political right doesn’t win over Gen Z with both words and action, the future will be a "nightmare for everyone," independent journalist @evitaduffy_1 predicts. (video)
• Recent satellite imagery has revealed ongoing activity and fresh evidence of significant damage to tunnels and access roads at Iran’s underground Fordow uranium enrichment site. 
• BREAKING: Two killed after suspect starts shooting at firefighters responding to a wildfire near Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. The suspect has not been caught. 
• WATCH LIVE: Firefighters allegedly ambushed by shooter, authorities give update. (video)

• @MarioNawful

• WORLD’S FIRST BRAIN IMPLANT THROUGH BLOOD VESSELS LETS PARALYZED MAN MOVE AGAIN. Chinese scientists have pulled off a world-first human trial using a brain-computer interface slipped into blood vessels instead of slicing open the skull. Led by Nankai University, doctors slid a stent loaded with micro-electrodes through a vein in a stroke patient’s neck, connecting it wirelessly under the skin to capture brain signals and trigger muscle movement. The 67-year-old patient, paralyzed on one side, can now voluntarily grasp objects and handle daily tasks, with zero major side effects reported.
• NEW “MAGIC” DEVICE COULD CRUSH STROKES… LITERALLY. Imagine a teensy tornado weaponized inside your arteries, pulverizing deadly brain clots into dust. That’s the mind-blowing premise behind Stanford’s milli-spinner - a whirling micro-gadget so effective, researchers have actually called it “magic.”
• CYBERSTORM HITS GULF & IRAN AS “ISRAELI” INDIAN SOFTWARE EXPOSED. A digital disaster is unfolding as Iran claims that software built by Indian programmers - long trusted to run everything from airports to civil registries - is secretly stuffed with Israeli backdoors, funneling real-time data on millions straight into Tel Aviv’s lap. 

• @C_3C_3

• President Trump now calling Rand “Fauci” Paul because… Rand caught Fauci lying under oath and did nothing about it. Literally nothing. I wonder if Rand’s relationship with China had anything to do with his inactivity. Trump calling Rand out is great. (video)
• Connect the dots it all makes sense. Pence gave Trump the advice to fire Flynn lighting the Russia Collusion fuse. Pence was in charge of the intentionally botched COVID response. Pence played a role in the Jan 6 election theft cover up operation. Judas from the beginning.

• @WallStreetApes

• “The Muslim Brotherhood has been working to destroy the United States from within for DECADES, this is their secret written plan exposed”. 29 organizations involved in their Islamic takeover of America. Barack Obama’s Middle East Policy Advisors involved. (video)
• Joe Rogan calls out American bread. “Our bread is so f*cked — We're f*cking poisoned”. People are not gluten intolerant, they’re poison intolerant. Here’s the breakdown. “In America what we call bread can't even be considered food in parts of Europe. See, here in America, it's not so much the gluten as what we've done to the grain.

• @elonmusk

• There is a clear path to restoring hearing with a @Neuralink, even for someone who has had total loss of hearing since birth, as our device directly activates the neurons in the brain that process sound.

• @GeneralFlynn

• There are former senior government officials that still MUST be held ACCOUNTABLE for what they did to our country! @BarackObama you’re the main culprit! If they were part of the Russia, Russia, Russia setup (and there’s too many to list here), they all need to go to JAIL, JAIL, JAIL!

• @amuse 

• DOGE: This is an absolute travesty! The second Kamala Harris lost the election, Biden unleashed a firehose of corruption, funneling $1.3 billion daily, nearly $100 billion total, to Democrat-aligned NGOs and companies before Trump’s inauguration. Compare that to the measly $40 billion the same loan office disbursed over *5 years, a mere $8 million a day. This isn’t just mismanagement; it’s theft on an unprecedented, global scale. Trump must demand every cent be clawed back immediately! (video)

• @acemaxx  

• CB policy rate outlook, chart @GoldmanSachs. (pic)

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,025,775 Reports(+454 from prior report) Through May 30th, 2025.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 50.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 54.0% -5.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 75.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran before 2026 27.0% -10.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 17.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 -.13% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.06 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.9 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -.54%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.
• S&P 500 futures +.38%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.49%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.