Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Trade negotiations between the US and Mexico are homing in on a possible quota system to reduce tariffs on a certain volume of steel imports, a move seen as assuaging concerns of American manufacturers of the metal.
• Japan should focus on enhancing its defense capabilities, not chasing spending goals, the ruling party’s policy chief said, following Trump administration calls for US allies to target higher military expenditure.
• Brazil was told by the Chinese government that President Xi Jinping will miss the summit of BRICS leaders that will take place in Rio de Janeiro next month.
• FedEx's efforts to combine its Express and Ground networks carry much more risk than the $4 billion of cost cuts that its CEO promised and delivered,
  @tomwblack says. 
• Shares of solar companies surged after a Republican Senator said lawmakers are discussing changes to a provision in President Donald Trump’s broad spending bill that would abruptly end tax credits for rooftop panels. 
• Staunch opposition from a handful of Republican lawmakers is endangering the tech industry’s drive to attach a ban on state regulation of artificial intelligence to Donald Trump’s tax bill.
• Traders are ramping up options wagers that 10-year Treasury yields are poised to sink to the lowest since April, amid dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a backdrop of simmering Middle East tensions. 
• Polymarket — still banned for US users — is becoming a unicorn. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge 

• U.N. Quietly Lowers Population Forecasts.
• Israel Tried To 'Turn' Iranian Generals Against Ayatollah Just Before Bombs Fell.
• California NGOs Providing Supplies To Illegals So They Can Avoid ICE Raids
  .
• Russia Considers AI Data Centers As Collapsing Gas Sales Create Glut
  .
• The Fed Is Powerful... That's The Problem
  .
• SCOOP with the @WIRED team: Big Balls resigned from the federal govt yesterday, per a WH official. More details from multiple sources about his departure
  .
• Goldman Makes Flurry Of Downgrades Across Consumer Sector
  . 
• NATO Chief Butters Up Trump, While Touting Ukraine's 'Irreversible Path' To NATO Membership
  . 
• Some 'Predictions' For The Latter Half Of 2025...
   
• censorship push is back
  . 
• 'Ceasefire' Sends Nasdaq 100 To Record High; Bitcoin Jumps As Gold & Oil Dump
  . 

• @CNBC 

• Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CEO says AeroVironment has 'many pieces of the puzzle' for 'Golden Dome' defense system. 

• @WSJ

• How Trump pushed Iran and Israel into a cease-fire.
• Exclusive: Big banks are trying to get out of the crosshairs of Republican states cracking down on “woke” policies.

• @TheTranscript 

• FedEx CEO: "....a solid finish to the fiscal year..." CFO: "Our Q4 & full-year results illustrate our determination to manage costs, reduce capital intensity, and increase earnings in order to unlock additional stockholder value." $FDX: -3.4% AH.

• @DataRepublican

• The single biggest step we can do to slay the Leviathan is to attack their incubators - the universities. University funding is a big part of the "soft power" playbook for both Western and anti-Western nations. Career activists are groomed in universities. Zohran Mamdani, Karen Bass, Tim Walz, many others. Eliminate taxpayer subsidies to universities. Restrict federal student loans. Pass a law banning all foreign money going into universities. That will end the career activist pipeline.

• @BillAckman

• A must watch, three-minute piece on Soros-funded anti-American protestors that work with terrorist organizations. Alex Soros and @HumaAbedin, please explain why you are funding this activity. If any of the below allegations are false, please correct them. (video)

• @RodDMartin 

• THREAD: TRUMP BROKERS PEACE IN AFRICA. You may have missed it with the Israel-Iran Ceasefire, but... Trump just ended a decades-long war between Rwanda and the Congo. Incredible. Here’s what happened:

• @VigilantFox

• REPORT: 145 people were pricked in a shocking “syringe attack,” plunging one of France’s largest music festivals into chaos. Millions flooded the streets across France on Saturday for the Fête de la Musique when violence broke out—brawls, police clashes, and stabbings left hundreds, possibly thousands, wounded. Among the most disturbing reports: 145 people were “jabbed” with unknown substances. Many victims were underage girls. This wasn’t random—attacks were reportedly called for on social media before the event. But the syringe attacks were just the beginning. Riots swept the country—with 371 arrested, 13 police officers injured, 51 cars torched, and multiple stabbings reported. (video)

• @RepLuna

• Senator Thom Tillis just slipped a massive gift to Big Pharma, Big Tech, and woke corporations into the “Big Beautiful Bill.” His anti-litigation finance plan (S.1821) slaps a 41% tax on the very tool that helps ordinary Americans fight back in court. This bill protects elites and punishes whistleblowers, inventors, and retirees. It’s a corporate shield dressed up as reform. This is not good legislation. Strip it from the bill
  @LeaderJohnThune.

• @MetabolicFactor

• Joe Rogan just hosted the most censored doctor in America. Dr. Mary Bowden exposed what really happened during COVID—and the cover-up runs deeper than you think. Here are 8 shocking takeaways they never wanted you to hear: (thread)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 -2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 49.75 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.
• Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran by 6/30 7.0% -3.0 percentage points
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 16.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 +.13%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.95 -1.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.08%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.