Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.95 +.21%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -5.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.26% -4.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 94.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.52 euros/megawatt-hour -.99%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.8 +3.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.4 -5.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.4 -1.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +1.3% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.87 +.36: Growth Rate +9.6% unch., P/E 21.5 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.25% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 433.96 +.62: Growth Rate +16.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 +25.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .91 -27.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.8 +.5
- US Yield Curve 49.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.3% +.6 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.62% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -6.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 65.3% (+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 46.2%(+9.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
- Iran Military Response to US forces by 6/30 27.0% -47.0 percentage points
- Another US military action against Iran by 6/30 25.0% -39.0 percentage points
- Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 26.0% -8.0 percentage points
- US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 51.0% +4.0 percentage points
- Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 73.0% +4.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +302 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +228 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my utility/financial/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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