Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Increasing Fed Rate-Cut Optimism, US Economic Data, Lower Long-Term Rates, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% -4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +20.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.3 +1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +11.0% +7.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 279.07 +.12:  Growth Rate +10.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.25% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 444.84 +.50: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.29 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.0 -.3
• US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.3% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 74.3% (+6.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 58.0%(+6.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 36.0% -1.0 percentage point 
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 86.0% +1.0 percentage point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/industrial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long