Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Rising US-EU Trade Deal Odds, Quarter-End Window Dressing, Consumer Discretionary/Industrial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.3 -5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.7 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.1 +.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% -8.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.17 +1.10:  Growth Rate +10.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.27% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 445.08 +.24: Growth Rate +19.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.37 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 +.3
• US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% -.5 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.3% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% +10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 76.0% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 58.6%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 59.0% +23.0 percentage points 
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 76.0% -10.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +435 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -161 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long