Around X:
- @Business
- NEW: Donald Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire beginning in about six hours.
- Several Persian Gulf states, including Qatar and the UAE, have reopened their airspace and resumed operations at some of the world’s busiest airports after halting flights as Iran launched air strikes at a US base in Qatar.
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will vow to spend 5% of British economic output on security by 2035, embracing an ambitious NATO target sought by President Donald Trump without providing a path on how to get there.
- Senate Republicans are coming around to the $40,000 cap on state and local tax deduction demanded by key House lawmakers, but they want to lower the income threshold.
- Gold retreated as haven demand ebbed after Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
- Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
- Starbucks shares rose in late trading on Monday after Caixin Global reported the company is considering a full sale of its China business.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have two chances this week to explain to lawmakers why he and most of his fellow policymakers seem resolved to continue holding interest rates steady at least until September.
- Meta Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg discussed a possible acquisition with video startup Runway AI Inc., as part of his deal-making drive in artificial intelligence.
- Iran’s missile attack on a US air base in Qatar was telegraphed well in advance, suggesting Tehran intended a symbolic show of force while offering a way to de-escalate after US airstrikes over the weekend: Here’s your Evening Briefing.
- Here's what you need to know to start your day.
- @ZeroHedge
- This leftwing radical Biden judge got jammed through the Senate in December, in the lame-duck session after Democrats lost the White House and Senate. Six months into the job, Massachusetts U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy is now openly defying a Supreme Court order. Impeach.
- As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around. As of now, there is NO "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards. The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.
- Automotive Industry Imbalance Delays Trade Negotiations With Japan.
- Iran Reportedly Agrees To Trump-Backed, Qatari-Mediated Ceasefire With Israel.
- Schlichter: Trump's Attack On Iran Will Not Destroy The America First Movement.
- Vindication For The Unvaccinated?
- Supreme Court Hands Trump Huge Win On Deporting 'Worst Of The Worst' Illegals.
- WATCH: MOMENT US Army launches MASSIVE wave of interceptors to destroy incoming Iranian missiles over Qatar.
- NYC Mayor's Race Upended As Business-Unfriendly Former Rapper Socialist Tops Cuomo.
- "Congrats World, It's Time For Peace" - Trump "Thanks" Iran After "Very Weak Response".
- Oil Crashes, Stocks Soar On 'Scripted' Iranian Retaliation; Gold & Crypto Jump As Dollar Dumps.
- @CNBC
- How a war-torn Myanmar plays a critical role in China's rare earth dominance.
- Tuesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
- @WSJ
- Commandos, secret operations and drones now offer action video that is effective as countries flaunt their tactical triumphs.
- NATO’s annual summit opens on Tuesday, with defense funding for readiness and resilience high on the agenda.
- Exclusive: New York intends to build a large nuclear-power facility, the first new U.S. plant undertaken in more than 15 years.
- @FoxNews
- China needs to take two lessons from Trump's announced ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Mark Montgomery tells @IngrahamAngle.
- @DNIGabbard praises President @realdonaldtrump's "herculean effort" after he announces a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
- Vance touts destruction of Iranian nuclear program as Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire.
- @VP JD Vance: "We know that they cannot build a nuclear weapon." (video)
- @GatewayPundit
- RFK Jr. Announces “Health Insurance Breakthrough” That Affects Nearly 260 Million Americans.
Night Trading
Morning Preview Links
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
- Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -4.0 basis points.
- China Sovereign CDS 51.5 -3.5 basis points.
- China Iron Ore Spot 93.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%.
- Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran by 6/30 10.0% -53.0 percentage points
- Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 18.0% -42.0 percentage points
- Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 +.02%.
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.07%.
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.65 +.23%.
- US 10-Year Yield 4.35% unch.
- Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -3.5%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.37%.
- S&P 500 futures +.58%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.83%.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
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