Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Iran’s leaders are discovering they’re on their own against the US and Israel, without the network of proxies and allies that allowed them to project power in the Middle East and beyond. 
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated during last night's air strikes. He praised President Donald Trump's military strike as "bold and brilliant." (video) 
• US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are sharpening the focus on one option Iran has yet to really deploy: disrupting regional oil trade, especially through the critical Strait of Hormuz. 
• Major US cities are tightening security after President Donald Trump unleashed airstrikes on Iran, a direct military intervention that’s deepened Washington’s role in Israel’s war with Tehran and raised concerns about potential retaliation.
• What follows US airstrikes is hard to predict, but it will be decided by clerics in Tehran, writes @MarcChampion1.  
• China criticized the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and again said it’s willing to join international efforts to restore peace in the Middle East.
• NATO has offered to tweak key language on ambitious defense spending targets to help win support from holdout Spain. 
• US strikes on Iran over the weekend have added to risks for global oil supply.
• Bank of New York Mellon Corp. approached Northern Trust Corp. last week to express interest in a possible merger in what would be a megadeal for the US financial services industry, the Wall Street Journal reported. 
• A group of the nation’s largest health insurers agreed to streamline preapprovals for medical care, addressing a controversial process that can result in delays or outright denials of patient treatment.'
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said central bankers need to communicate with flexibility at times of uncertainty, given that using strong forward guidance sometimes “comes with a price”.
• PJM Interconnection, which serves about 20% of Americans in the mid-Atlantic to the Midwest, declared an energy emergency alert with power demand expected to climb to a 14—year high amid.
• A Republican effort to block US states from enforcing new artificial intelligence regulations will remain in President Trump’s massive tax and spending package for now, marking a win for tech companies.
• The US is adding a slew of big batteries that may keep your lights on this summer.
• Markets are bracing for a flight to safety as investors await Iran's response to US strikes.  
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge 

• Futures Slide, Oil, Gold And Dollar Spike But No Panic Moves.
• Report Warns "Woke Army" & Dark-Money Funded NGOs Could Take Iran's War "To America's Streets".
• Hedge Fund CIO: "A Tsunami Of Global Liquidity Is Seeking A Safe Haven".
• Well would you look at that: guess who is eating all those tariff costs (hint, it's not US consumers). (graph)
• NYT: "Intelligence officials have detected signs that Iran-backed militias are preparing to attack U.S. bases in Iraq, and possibly Syria." 
• *GROSSI SAYS IAEA INSPECTORS MUST BE ALLOWED BACK TO IRAN SITES. *GROSSI SAYS HOSTILITIES MUST END FOR IAEA INSPECTORS TO RETURN. *GROSSI: NO ONE IN POSITION TO ASSESS FORDOW UNDERGROUND DAMAGE.
• Here's How US Strikes On Iran Unfolded. 
• First Robotaxi Rides. (video)
• Trump Slams Massie As 'Not MAGA' Amid Iran Policy Infighting Among President's Base. 
• Fordow Before and after. (pic) 
• Natural Gas Projects Reboot After Officials Wake Up To Stark Realities.
• IRAN'S ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY SAYS NUCLEAR SITES QUICKLY BEING REBUILT, ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WITH GREATER POWER – IRANIAN MEDIA.
• $150 Oil? Goldman Lays Out How Markets Will React To US Escalation In Iran.
• Here's What Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho is 'Seeing, Hearing, Thinking, & Doing In The Markets'.
• US Military Scrambles For Ways To Protect Bases From Drone Warfare.
• Iranian Parliament Backs Strait Of Hormuz Closure, Oil Market Braces For Turmoil. 
• From hedge funds to quants, longs are light which should leave less room for an unwind panic. 
• Satellite Imagery Flags "Unusual Activity" At Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site Days Before U.S. Strike.
• Global Fertilizer Market Thrown In Chaos After Mideast War Shutters Iran Urea Production.  

• @WSJ

• President Trump’s “big beautiful bill” is getting smaller after the Senate’s rules arbiter decided several provisions don’t qualify for the procedure the GOP is using to bypass Democratic opposition.
• From @WSJopinion: Trump is again offering Iran’s leaders a choice of negotiating peace or retaliating and inviting more harm to their country. They learned the hard way on Saturday that doubting Trump’s red lines is a mistake. 
• Vice President JD Vance signals that Iran’s enriched-uranium stockpile is intact, a hurdle to closing a path to a bomb. Tehran says it has minimized damage as it tries to buy time to weigh a response.
• Fred Smith, who founded FedEx and turned it into a global transportation giant, died Saturday at age 80. 

• @GatewayPundit

• NEW: Los Angeles Riots Cost Taxpayers Over $30 MILLION, Including $1.4 Million in Clean-Up/Public Property Damage – Leftist LA City Controller Blames ICE: “Raids Have Now Cost LA Taxpayers $32 Million”.
• “Make Iran Great Again” – President Trump Suggests Regime Change in Iran After US Drops Bombs on Nuclear Sites.
• US Officials Issue Terror Threat Alert for Potential Cyber Attacks and Violent Extremists Following Iran Strikes.
• Border Czar Tom Homan on Potential Sleeper Cells from Iran in the US (VIDEO).
• WHAT? Out-Of-Touch Zelensky Asks ALL Allies To Devote 0.25% of Their GDP to Finance Ukrainian War Effort.
• BREAKING: Congregants Flee as Active Shooter Rams Truck Into Christian Church in Michigan, Opens Fire – Suspect Killed by Armed Security Guard (VIDEO)
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• The Dragon’s Hidden Hand: How Chinese Organized Crime Could Serve as a Fifth Column in America.
   

• @FoxNews  

• State Department issues worldwide caution for US travelers following Trump's Iran strikes.
• Nearly half of Iranian nationals caught by Border Patrol during the Biden administration were released into the US, CBP source tell FOX News. (video)

• @C_3C_3

• Reminder… Barack Hussein Obama secretly delivered $400 million in cash on pallets to Iran in the dark of night then released over a billion more to fund the nuclear program POTUS Trump obliterated.

• @WallStreetApes

• 1) Barack Obama made 3 CASH PAYMENTS to Iran. - January 17, 2016: $400 million. - January 22, 2016: $1.3 billion. - February 5, 2016: $10 million. Obama was paying his organization. 2) Donald Trump “Barack Obama is the founder of ISIS. He’s the founder”. Make sense yet? (video)

• @nicksortor

• ALERT: There is a MASSIVE deep state effort to force Tulsi Gabbard out of her DNI position due to her restrained approach to war. DO NOT FALL FOR IT. They want to ELIMINATE Tulsi’s powerful office completely, and fold it into the CIA. That would be an ABSOLUTELY DEVASTATING outcome. If want to give the deep state exponentially more power, eliminate @TulsiGabbard and her office. And we’ll feel the devastating impacts for decades.

• @VigilantFox

• Rep. @WesleyHuntTX just delivered the most powerful rebuttal to Whoopi Goldberg’s crazy race claim—and Bill Maher’s liberal audience erupted in applause. “I don’t even ever want to hear Whoopi Goldberg’s conversation about how it’s worse to be black in America [than to live in Iran].” “My district in the great state of Texas is actually a white-majority district that President Trump would have won by 25 points… I am literally being judged not by the color of my skin, but by the content of my character. That’s the progress, because a lot of white people had to vote for me—a lot.” (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.5 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 55.0 +2.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
• Polymarket: Iran Military Response to US forces by 6/30 56.0% +4.0 percentage points
• Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran by 6/30 54.0% -9.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 49.0% +19.0 percentage points
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.77 -.02% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.86 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.3 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.40% +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.6 +2.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.53%.
• S&P 500 futures -.41%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.53%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.