Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• BREAKING: Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, in a major escalation in the standoff over Tehran’s atomic program that risks sparking a new war in the Middle East.
• Israel-Iran Live News: Israel Launches Strikes on Iran, Braces for Retaliation.
• Chinese government officials are going at great lengths to protect jobs even as worsening profitability across companies has reached the highest level in over two decades. 
• Oil futures surged after reports of successive explosions in Tehran.
• Gold rose a third day on reports that Israel struck targets in Iran.
• NRG Energy is working on deals to power US data centers “all over the country” and will reveal details with second-quarter results, according to the top executive of the independent generator.
• US regulators approved Moderna’s vaccine to prevent a common respiratory illness for more adults, a potential easing of the Trump administration’s opposition to mRNA technology.
• Apple has set an internal release target of spring 2026 for its delayed upgrade of Siri, marking a key step in its artificial intelligence turnaround effort.
• Adobe gave a strong sales outlook for the current quarter, quieting investor anxieties that it is falling behind in a competition with AI-focused upstart.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge 

• Blasts heard in Natanz city, home to key nuclear site: Iranian state TV.
• #BREAKING Iranian missiles are heading for Israel.
• Breaking: Head of IRGC eliminated. 
• Prime Minister Netanyahu: "Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival. This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat." (video)
• *TRUMP MUST PULL BACK ON USING TROOPS IN LA PROTESTS, JUDGE SAYS. How SCOTUS rules on this will have huge consequences.
• Targeted assassinations. NETANYAHU: WE TARGETED IRAN'S LEADING NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS WORKING ON THE IRANIAN BOMB, WE ALSO STRUCK THE HEART OF IRAN'S BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAMME.
• Smartmatic Accused Of Deleting Evidence In $2.7B Fox News Defamation Case: Court Docs.
• Drunk-looking Padilla is clearing advancing on Noem even after being ordered to back away. He has no defense. SLO-motion reroll the video tape.
• House Approves Bill To Codify $9.4 Billion In DOGE Cuts To Foreign Aid, Public Media. 
• Disgusting: Lockheed Martin keeps a spreadsheet of employees by race, then instructs managers precisely how many whites they must eliminate from the bonus list, even if those employees performed better than their peers. And they wrote it all down, even though it is illegal.
• The Case For Saying I'm Sorry. 
• Stocks Close At Session Highs But Retail Euphoria Boils Over As Short-Squeeze Frenzy Ends. 

• @TheTranscript

• $RH CEO dusts off a Buffett quote about economic storms to explain why they loaded up on debt to buy back stock:
• RH with an earnings beat, a revenue miss. CEO: "Despite the speculative & uncertain outcome related to tariffs and the macroeconomic environment, we are maintaining our current guidance for FY 25, assuming the existing tariffs remain unchanged." $RH: +15% AH.
• $ADBE CFO: "We are on pace to surpass $250 million in AI-first direct ARR book of business exiting the year."
• Adobe CFO: "As a result of us driving strong performance in the first half of the year, we are pleased to raise Adobe’s FY25 total revenue and EPS targets" $ADBE: +1% AH.

• @spectatorindex

• BREAKING: Axios reports that the US has told Israel it will not participate in an Israeli strike on Iran.

• @ImMeme0

• BREAKING: Six Republicans voted NO on the DOGE rescission cuts—and also NO on cutting NPR and PBS! - Mark Amodei - Nevada - Don Bacon - Nebraska - Brian Fitzpatrick - Pennsylvania - Nick LaLota - New York - Nicole Malliotakis - New York - Mike Turner - Ohio. You know what to do!!

• @Worldsource24

• BREAKING: North Korea’s Kim warns U.S. provocation ‘dangerous,’ announces DPRK battleships will soon enter Pacific.

• @ThomasSowell

• A map of where China owns farmland near US military bases. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 +3.75 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 48.0 +3.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.90 +.5%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.03 -.3%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.8.1 -.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.34% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 +9.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.7%. 
• S&P 500 futures -1.8%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.9%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.