Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.16 +.38%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +6.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% -1.0 bais point
- China Iron Ore Spot 93.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.91 euros/megawatt-hour +.03%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.2 -3.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.7 +.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.11 +.32: Growth Rate +9.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.22% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 432.40 +.88: Growth Rate +15.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.0 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 -12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -18.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 -.7
- US Yield Curve 48.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.0% -.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.61% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 87.5% (+10.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 56.5%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +339 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -88 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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