Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.15 +.15%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.40% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 95.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.84%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -3.6 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +2.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.6 +.9 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.98 +.12: Growth Rate +9.0% unch., P/E 21.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.25% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +32.4% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 429.0 +.25: Growth Rate +14.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.2 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 -4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.1 -.3
- US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -8.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% +2.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 -3.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 69.2% (-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 55.4%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -141 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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