The coming week is relatively light on market-moving economic reports and earnings releases. Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, 4Q Final GDP, Existing Home Sales, Help Wanted Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending and the Final U. of Mich. Confidence reading for March are scheduled for release next week. Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence are the most important releases. Durable Goods Orders are estimated +1.5% versus -2.3% in January. The Final reading from the U. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index for March is expected to be 93.5 vs. a prior estimate of 94.1.
To date, there have been only 1.7 earnings warnings for the upcoming quarter to every positive preannouncement, significantly lower than the average of 2.5. Walgreen(WAG), Micron(MU), Carnival Corp.(CCL), Goldman Sachs(GS) and EchoStar(DISH) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. PeopleSoft's(PSFT) annual stockholder meeting on Thurs. will be of interest as investors look for comments on Oracle's takeover bid. Several Fed Governors speak throughout the week as well. The CTIA Wireless Conference lasts all week. Amgen's Research and Development Day is Tues. Applied Materials(AMAT) annual meeting is Wed. Finally, Nokia's(NOK) annual meeting is scheduled for Thur.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week. I am overweight gaming, base metal and homebuilding stocks on the long-side. I would like to see 466 hold on the Morgan Stanley High-tech Index and 463 hold on the Semiconductor Index. In my opinion, these levels are crucial to the short-term direction of the entire market. I will likely reduce market exposure substantially on a convincing break of these levels. A rally early next week will likely lead me to increase tech exposure. I would like to reiterate that the S&P 500 2004 P/E is 17.9(where it is was in the late 80's and down over 60% from its high set in 02) and falling, the economy is growing the fastest since the mid-80's, interest rates are still near 46-year lows, corporate profitability is at all-time highs, American's net-worth is at all-time highs, corporate spending is improving, consumer spending remains strong, the Fed remains on hold as inflation hovers near all-time lows, energy prices will likely fall into the spring, the unemployment rate is falling with improvement in job creation around the corner and the U.S. dollar has stabilized. These are all very important reasons that I believe the recent weakness is just a healthy correction in a bull market that began a year ago.
Sunday, March 21, 2004
Market Week in Review
S&P 500 1,109.78 -.96%
U.S. stocks fell last week, sending the S&P 500 to its first back-to-back weekly decline since November. Benchmark indices reached new lows for the year Monday on a possible al-Qaeda link to the March 11 attack in Madrid. Airline and Semiconductor companies led the way on the downside. Stubbornly high energy prices and fears that terrorism would slow travel hurt the Airline Index. Semiconductors were weaker on fears that a significant increase in Chinese production next year will result in overcapacity and price erosion. Base metal and mining stocks were the only consistently positive groups on the week as Nucor, the largest U.S. maker of steel using recycled metal, boosted its profit forecast dramatically and commodity prices continued their rise on insatiable Chinese demand.
Positive comments by the Fed with respect to the timing of a possible rate hike and reports that al-Qaeda's al-Zawahri was surrounded on the Afghan border provided the catalyst for a brief rally mid-week. Very good earnings reports from 3M, GE, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley also contributed to the short-lived rally. By Friday, the bears had regained control as rumors surfaced that al-Zawahri had escaped the Pakistani-led assault. Reports that Microsoft failed to reach an agreement in settlement talks with the EU and extreme weakness in semiconductors on negative comments by Taiwan Semi also contributed to Friday's sell-off.
BOTTOM LINE: The Semiconductor Index(SOX) is trading right on its 200 day moving average at 463. If the recent correction is nearing an end I would expect to see this level hold. However, if the SOX breaks 463 convincingly I will anticipate further down-side in the NASDAQ which will in turn lead to further overall market erosion and a continuation of the recent correction. I doubt that China will be able to produce enough high-quality semiconductors next year to significantly hurt global pricing. This will likely become a problem at some point in the future, but not next year. While foreign travel may be hurt as a result of terrorism, I believe that domestic travel will be exceptionally strong this season on American's record-high net-worth, tax-cut stimulus and historically low interest rates. However, a continuation of the recent increases in crude oil prices will seriously damage the financial health of some U.S. airlines in the future. I view Microsoft's problems as mostly temporary and would recommend long-term conservative investors seeking tech exposure to begin buying at current levels. Overall, last week saw quite a bit of fundamentally positive news. Earnings at major U.S. corporations continue to surprise analysts on the up-side, leading to rapidly falling price/earnings ratios. With interest rates remaining near 46-year lows, the strongest economic growth since the mid-80's and record-high corporate profitability I continue to believe that the recent decline is just a healthy correction within the confines of a bull market that began a year ago.
U.S. stocks fell last week, sending the S&P 500 to its first back-to-back weekly decline since November. Benchmark indices reached new lows for the year Monday on a possible al-Qaeda link to the March 11 attack in Madrid. Airline and Semiconductor companies led the way on the downside. Stubbornly high energy prices and fears that terrorism would slow travel hurt the Airline Index. Semiconductors were weaker on fears that a significant increase in Chinese production next year will result in overcapacity and price erosion. Base metal and mining stocks were the only consistently positive groups on the week as Nucor, the largest U.S. maker of steel using recycled metal, boosted its profit forecast dramatically and commodity prices continued their rise on insatiable Chinese demand.
Positive comments by the Fed with respect to the timing of a possible rate hike and reports that al-Qaeda's al-Zawahri was surrounded on the Afghan border provided the catalyst for a brief rally mid-week. Very good earnings reports from 3M, GE, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley also contributed to the short-lived rally. By Friday, the bears had regained control as rumors surfaced that al-Zawahri had escaped the Pakistani-led assault. Reports that Microsoft failed to reach an agreement in settlement talks with the EU and extreme weakness in semiconductors on negative comments by Taiwan Semi also contributed to Friday's sell-off.
BOTTOM LINE: The Semiconductor Index(SOX) is trading right on its 200 day moving average at 463. If the recent correction is nearing an end I would expect to see this level hold. However, if the SOX breaks 463 convincingly I will anticipate further down-side in the NASDAQ which will in turn lead to further overall market erosion and a continuation of the recent correction. I doubt that China will be able to produce enough high-quality semiconductors next year to significantly hurt global pricing. This will likely become a problem at some point in the future, but not next year. While foreign travel may be hurt as a result of terrorism, I believe that domestic travel will be exceptionally strong this season on American's record-high net-worth, tax-cut stimulus and historically low interest rates. However, a continuation of the recent increases in crude oil prices will seriously damage the financial health of some U.S. airlines in the future. I view Microsoft's problems as mostly temporary and would recommend long-term conservative investors seeking tech exposure to begin buying at current levels. Overall, last week saw quite a bit of fundamentally positive news. Earnings at major U.S. corporations continue to surprise analysts on the up-side, leading to rapidly falling price/earnings ratios. With interest rates remaining near 46-year lows, the strongest economic growth since the mid-80's and record-high corporate profitability I continue to believe that the recent decline is just a healthy correction within the confines of a bull market that began a year ago.
Saturday, March 20, 2004
Economic Week in Review
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 134.40 -.15%
The Empire State Factory Index, a gauge of manufacturing in New York state, fell to 25.3 this month from a record high reading of 42.1 in February. This failed to meet expectations of 38.0. Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One said, "...we are likely to see the manufacturing sector continue to take 2 steps forward followed by a singe step back."
U.S. Industrial Production rose .7% in February versus expectations of a .4% rise. February's strong number followed a .8% rise in January, resulting in the largest 2-month gain since October-November 1999 during the final blow-off stage of the bubble. Strong demand, a lower dollar and the need to replenish inventories all suggest industrial production will remain strong.
U.S. employers plan to boost hiring during the second quarter, at the fastest pace in over 3 years, because demand for products and services is beyond the capacity of their current workforce, according to the latest Manpower Inc. survey.
U.S. housing starts fell to 1855K in February versus 1903K in January and expectations of 1930K. The 5th wettest February on record contributed to a 1.6% drop in the South, where about half of all new homes are built. Toll Brothers, the largest U.S. builder of high-end homes, said backlogs of houses ordered and awaiting construction totaled 5,094 homes at the end of January, larger than their entire delivery for last year.
The Federal Reserve policy makers reiterated they will be "patient" in holding down borrowing costs to help boost job growth, voting to leave the benchmark U.S. interest rate at a 45-year low of 1%. In their economic outlook, the Fed maintained their view that the risk of deflation equals that of inflation.
The Consumer Price Index rose .3% in February, meeting expectations, and lower than January's .5% rise. Core prices were 1.2% higher in the 12 months ended in February, the smallest rise since 1966. U.S. producer prices rose .6% in January versus expectations of a .4% rise and a .2% increase in December. This increase was mainly attributed to higher costs for gasoline and heating oil. Core prices were up .9% in the 12 months ended in January.
The Leading Indicators Index was unchanged in February versus expectations of a .1% rise and a .4% rise in January. The index is still 3.3% higher than the previous peak reached in May of 2002.
The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index registered a reading of 24.4 in March versus expectations of 29.0 and a reading of 31.4 in February. In a special question by the Philly Fed, 73.2% of the participants said they've had job openings in the last 3 months and 89.2% said problems filling those positions were due to a lack of "qualified applicants." Almost 77% said they anticipate job openings in the next 6 months.
BOTTOM LINE: Overall, the reports were mixed. Industrial production is still at very high levels. The fall in the Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing reports was likely a result of exceptionally high readings the prior month, indicating just a pause. There are the initial signs of a pick-up in inflation, however the current readings are not high enough to be of concern. Based on the Fed's statements, I continue to believe that a rate hike will not occur until a couple of really strong monthly employment reports are released. Last week's reports also suggest that companies are having trouble meeting demand with their current labor force, implying a pick-up in hiring will occur very soon.
The Empire State Factory Index, a gauge of manufacturing in New York state, fell to 25.3 this month from a record high reading of 42.1 in February. This failed to meet expectations of 38.0. Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One said, "...we are likely to see the manufacturing sector continue to take 2 steps forward followed by a singe step back."
U.S. Industrial Production rose .7% in February versus expectations of a .4% rise. February's strong number followed a .8% rise in January, resulting in the largest 2-month gain since October-November 1999 during the final blow-off stage of the bubble. Strong demand, a lower dollar and the need to replenish inventories all suggest industrial production will remain strong.
U.S. employers plan to boost hiring during the second quarter, at the fastest pace in over 3 years, because demand for products and services is beyond the capacity of their current workforce, according to the latest Manpower Inc. survey.
U.S. housing starts fell to 1855K in February versus 1903K in January and expectations of 1930K. The 5th wettest February on record contributed to a 1.6% drop in the South, where about half of all new homes are built. Toll Brothers, the largest U.S. builder of high-end homes, said backlogs of houses ordered and awaiting construction totaled 5,094 homes at the end of January, larger than their entire delivery for last year.
The Federal Reserve policy makers reiterated they will be "patient" in holding down borrowing costs to help boost job growth, voting to leave the benchmark U.S. interest rate at a 45-year low of 1%. In their economic outlook, the Fed maintained their view that the risk of deflation equals that of inflation.
The Consumer Price Index rose .3% in February, meeting expectations, and lower than January's .5% rise. Core prices were 1.2% higher in the 12 months ended in February, the smallest rise since 1966. U.S. producer prices rose .6% in January versus expectations of a .4% rise and a .2% increase in December. This increase was mainly attributed to higher costs for gasoline and heating oil. Core prices were up .9% in the 12 months ended in January.
The Leading Indicators Index was unchanged in February versus expectations of a .1% rise and a .4% rise in January. The index is still 3.3% higher than the previous peak reached in May of 2002.
The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index registered a reading of 24.4 in March versus expectations of 29.0 and a reading of 31.4 in February. In a special question by the Philly Fed, 73.2% of the participants said they've had job openings in the last 3 months and 89.2% said problems filling those positions were due to a lack of "qualified applicants." Almost 77% said they anticipate job openings in the next 6 months.
BOTTOM LINE: Overall, the reports were mixed. Industrial production is still at very high levels. The fall in the Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing reports was likely a result of exceptionally high readings the prior month, indicating just a pause. There are the initial signs of a pick-up in inflation, however the current readings are not high enough to be of concern. Based on the Fed's statements, I continue to believe that a rate hike will not occur until a couple of really strong monthly employment reports are released. Last week's reports also suggest that companies are having trouble meeting demand with their current labor force, implying a pick-up in hiring will occur very soon.
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,109.78 -.96%
Dow 10,186.60 -.52%
NASDAQ 1,940.47 -2.23%
Russell 2000 570.74 -2.08%
Wilshire 5000 10,852.98 -1.05%
Volatility(VIX) 19.15 +4.65%
AAII Bullish % 38.30 -6.51%
US Dollar 88.13 +.56%
CRB 279.70 +3.02%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 412.70 +4.32%
Crude Oil 38.08 +5.14%
Natural Gas 5.58 +.04%
Base Metals 113.07 +4.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.78% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.38% -.55%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.80%
Commodity +1.76%
Oil Service +1.26%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -4.42%
Semis -4.48%
Airlines -7.92%
*% Gain or loss for the week
S&P 500 1,109.78 -.96%
Dow 10,186.60 -.52%
NASDAQ 1,940.47 -2.23%
Russell 2000 570.74 -2.08%
Wilshire 5000 10,852.98 -1.05%
Volatility(VIX) 19.15 +4.65%
AAII Bullish % 38.30 -6.51%
US Dollar 88.13 +.56%
CRB 279.70 +3.02%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 412.70 +4.32%
Crude Oil 38.08 +5.14%
Natural Gas 5.58 +.04%
Base Metals 113.07 +4.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.78% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.38% -.55%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.80%
Commodity +1.76%
Oil Service +1.26%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -4.42%
Semis -4.48%
Airlines -7.92%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Friday, March 19, 2004
Friday Close
S&P 500 1,109.78 -1.12%
NASDAQ 1,940.47 -1.12%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.97%
Broadcasting +.15%
Computer Service +.01%
Lagging Sectors
Disk Drive -1.97%
Oil Service -2.29%
Semis -3.60%
Other
Crude Oil 38.08 +.40%
Natural Gas 5.58 -.87%
Gold 412.70 +.34%
Base Metals 113.07 +.31%
U.S. Dollar 88.13 +.56%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.77% +.45%
VIX 19.15 +3.35%
Put/Call .80 1.02 +24.39%
NYSE Arms 2.03 +93.33%
After-hours Movers
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PAYX. GS reiterates Outperform on X. GS reiterates Outperform on CSCO on recent pullback saying 3 recent data points suggest business is tracking at or above estimates and they see upside later in the year as the IT buying cycle continues to strengthen.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell today as morning weakness in Semis spread to the rest of the market by later afternoon. Terrorism fears ahead of the weekend also contributed to the drop. Metal and mining stocks advanced after Nucor Corp.(NUE), the largest U.S. maker of steel using recycled metal, boosted its profit forecast as it passed on to customers the higher cost of scrap, which has soared in the past year on demand from China. Profit for Nucor's fiscal first quarter will be .80-1.00 a share, higher than its previous forecast of .40-.60 cents.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was up today, notwithstanding its 100% net long exposure, as a few of my longs were up substantially and my shorts declined. I rotated out of some tech on the afternoon breakdown in the Morgan Stanley High-tech Index and into a few new cyclical longs, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am anticipating at least a short-term bounce early next week barring any major weekend terror acts.
NASDAQ 1,940.47 -1.12%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +3.97%
Broadcasting +.15%
Computer Service +.01%
Lagging Sectors
Disk Drive -1.97%
Oil Service -2.29%
Semis -3.60%
Other
Crude Oil 38.08 +.40%
Natural Gas 5.58 -.87%
Gold 412.70 +.34%
Base Metals 113.07 +.31%
U.S. Dollar 88.13 +.56%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.77% +.45%
VIX 19.15 +3.35%
Put/Call .80 1.02 +24.39%
NYSE Arms 2.03 +93.33%
After-hours Movers
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PAYX. GS reiterates Outperform on X. GS reiterates Outperform on CSCO on recent pullback saying 3 recent data points suggest business is tracking at or above estimates and they see upside later in the year as the IT buying cycle continues to strengthen.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell today as morning weakness in Semis spread to the rest of the market by later afternoon. Terrorism fears ahead of the weekend also contributed to the drop. Metal and mining stocks advanced after Nucor Corp.(NUE), the largest U.S. maker of steel using recycled metal, boosted its profit forecast as it passed on to customers the higher cost of scrap, which has soared in the past year on demand from China. Profit for Nucor's fiscal first quarter will be .80-1.00 a share, higher than its previous forecast of .40-.60 cents.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was up today, notwithstanding its 100% net long exposure, as a few of my longs were up substantially and my shorts declined. I rotated out of some tech on the afternoon breakdown in the Morgan Stanley High-tech Index and into a few new cyclical longs, leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am anticipating at least a short-term bounce early next week barring any major weekend terror acts.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,118.93 -.31%
NASDAQ 1,962.52 unch.
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +4.39%
Software +.83%
Papers +.60%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.89%
Airlines -1.12%
Semis -1.35%
Other
Crude Oil 38.00 +.18%
Natural Gas 5.61 -.37%
Gold 410.10 -.29%
Base Metals 113.07 +.31%
U.S. Dollar 88.28 +.73%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.78% +.70%
VIX 18.50 -.16%
Put/Call .95 +15.85%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +23.81%
Market Movers
ADBE +9.6% after significantly beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
STTX +18.9% after boosting 2Q forecast substantially.
CACS +11.6% after Cingular selected it for wireless backhaul solutions.
QCBC +17% after takeover by BPOP.
NUE +6.89% after boosting 1Q guidance substantially.
PSRC -16.4% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
ACVI -17% after lowering 1Q guidance.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
ADBE raised to Buy at Citi Smith Barney, target $47. Citi saying to buy MOT on weakness ahead of next week's CTIA Conference. VRTS raised to Buy 2 at UBS, target $35. SFD raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $32. SAP raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC, target $45. BAC, FBF raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns. HBAN, ASO cut to Sell at Merrill. PGR raised to Overweight at Lehman, target $105. ROK raised to Overweight at Lehman, target $38. MGA raised to Overweight at J.P. Morgan. SOHU raised to Overweight at Pacific Growth. Cramer of TheStreet.com thinks BDK could pre-announce to the upside. Morgan Stanley says semi demand will stay strong in 04 and recommends overweighting the sector following the recent 20-25% pullback. Goldman Sachs reiterates Outperform on AMGN. GS sees improved newspaper stock performance in 04 led by surging help-wanted ad sales, favorites are TRB and GCI. GS says PFE is favorite pharma stock and does not believe drug re-importation will occur this year.
Mid-day News
Stocks are mixed mid-day on stength in commodity-related stocks and weakness in semis. Merrill Lynch increased its forecast for mobile-phone shipment this year to 20 percent from a previous 16 percent due to growing markets in China, India and Russia. Demand for semis was the highest in 3 years in February, reported TheStreet.com. Saddam Hussein took $10.1 billion, $3.5 billion more than previously estimated, in smuggled oil revenue from the UN Oil for Food Program, the Washington Post reported. San Francisco home prices surged 14% in February to record highs, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Oracle expects to soon agree to sell its financial-management software to 100 customers in Asia, Dow Jones reported. Cramer says on CNBC that high oil prices affect 10% of S&P positively and 20% negatively. Pakistani forces continue to battle as many as 400 fighters along the Afghan border who appear to be protecting a "high-value" target. Adobe’s CFO said that he is excited about economic growth and that they are hiring worldwide.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a good day as a few of my longs are up substantially. I expect the recent weakness in the last hour will not persist throughout the day. I haven't executed any trades today, however I may add a few longs on any significant weakness. Goldman Sachs is estimating S&P 500 operating EPS to grow 10% in 04 and 8% in 05, down from 29% in 03. I view this as a positive for the market as companies should exceed these low expectations by a wide margin. The Portfolio is 100% net long.
NASDAQ 1,962.52 unch.
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +4.39%
Software +.83%
Papers +.60%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.89%
Airlines -1.12%
Semis -1.35%
Other
Crude Oil 38.00 +.18%
Natural Gas 5.61 -.37%
Gold 410.10 -.29%
Base Metals 113.07 +.31%
U.S. Dollar 88.28 +.73%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.78% +.70%
VIX 18.50 -.16%
Put/Call .95 +15.85%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +23.81%
Market Movers
ADBE +9.6% after significantly beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
STTX +18.9% after boosting 2Q forecast substantially.
CACS +11.6% after Cingular selected it for wireless backhaul solutions.
QCBC +17% after takeover by BPOP.
NUE +6.89% after boosting 1Q guidance substantially.
PSRC -16.4% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q guidance.
ACVI -17% after lowering 1Q guidance.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
ADBE raised to Buy at Citi Smith Barney, target $47. Citi saying to buy MOT on weakness ahead of next week's CTIA Conference. VRTS raised to Buy 2 at UBS, target $35. SFD raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $32. SAP raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC, target $45. BAC, FBF raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns. HBAN, ASO cut to Sell at Merrill. PGR raised to Overweight at Lehman, target $105. ROK raised to Overweight at Lehman, target $38. MGA raised to Overweight at J.P. Morgan. SOHU raised to Overweight at Pacific Growth. Cramer of TheStreet.com thinks BDK could pre-announce to the upside. Morgan Stanley says semi demand will stay strong in 04 and recommends overweighting the sector following the recent 20-25% pullback. Goldman Sachs reiterates Outperform on AMGN. GS sees improved newspaper stock performance in 04 led by surging help-wanted ad sales, favorites are TRB and GCI. GS says PFE is favorite pharma stock and does not believe drug re-importation will occur this year.
Mid-day News
Stocks are mixed mid-day on stength in commodity-related stocks and weakness in semis. Merrill Lynch increased its forecast for mobile-phone shipment this year to 20 percent from a previous 16 percent due to growing markets in China, India and Russia. Demand for semis was the highest in 3 years in February, reported TheStreet.com. Saddam Hussein took $10.1 billion, $3.5 billion more than previously estimated, in smuggled oil revenue from the UN Oil for Food Program, the Washington Post reported. San Francisco home prices surged 14% in February to record highs, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Oracle expects to soon agree to sell its financial-management software to 100 customers in Asia, Dow Jones reported. Cramer says on CNBC that high oil prices affect 10% of S&P positively and 20% negatively. Pakistani forces continue to battle as many as 400 fighters along the Afghan border who appear to be protecting a "high-value" target. Adobe’s CFO said that he is excited about economic growth and that they are hiring worldwide.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is having a good day as a few of my longs are up substantially. I expect the recent weakness in the last hour will not persist throughout the day. I haven't executed any trades today, however I may add a few longs on any significant weakness. Goldman Sachs is estimating S&P 500 operating EPS to grow 10% in 04 and 8% in 05, down from 29% in 03. I view this as a positive for the market as companies should exceed these low expectations by a wide margin. The Portfolio is 100% net long.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)