Friday, December 02, 2005

US Economy Creates Another 215,00 Jobs

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for November was 215K versus estimates of 210K and 44K in October.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for November was 11K versus estimates of 5K and 15K in October.
- The Unemployment Rate for November was 5.0% versus estimates of 5.0% and 5.0% in October.
- Average Hourly Earnings for November rose .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .6% gain in Ocober.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy added 215,000 jobs in November, bouncing back from two months of weak job growth triggered by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Bloomberg reported. The largest percentage of industries are now hiring since July 2004. With the US economy in the middle of the best streak of 3%+ growth quarters since 1986 and double-digit corporate earnings gains in the middle of the best streak since 1936, I expect the US labor market to continue to improve at a modest rate over the intermediate-term. The deceleration in Average Hourly Earnings is a positive as unit labor cost increases, the largest component of inflation, remain subdued.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Asian stocks rose to the highest in more than five years, after US reports bolstered confidence the world’s largest economy is growing enough to sustain demand without generating inflation.
- Matsushita Electric Industrial will increase plasma panel production capacity 44% by July 2006 to meet demand for its Panasonic brand televisions.
- The yen traded near a record low against the euro and a 31-month low against the dollar in Asia as the Bank of Japan holds borrowing costs close to zero percent while central banks in the US and Europe raise them.
- Adobe Systems said its has been notified it will receive approval from international regulators for its proposed $3.4 billion acquisition of Macromedia.

Business Week:
- Liberty Media, the cable-television broadcaster controlled by billionaire John Malone, may be worth $14 a share if it strikes a deal with Rupert Murdoch, who controls News Corp., Steve Roge of Roge Partners Fund told Business Week.

AP:
- US Representative John Murtha, Democrat from Pennsylvania, who two weeks ago called for the immediate withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, predicted most soldiers will return within a year because they are “broken, worn out.”

Financial Times:
- Blackstone Group LOP plans to build a “flagship fund” as part of a move into hedge funds which may lead to $10 billion under management, citing company President Tony James.

Shanghai Daily:
- China’s 200 million cell-phone owners who use prepaid cards will have to register with telecom providers by mid-2006 or face a cutoff in service. China is trying to verify every telephone subscriber in the country as the government attempts to stem telephonic fraud and unauthorized transmissions, including pornographic or politically charged content.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on SYMC, SBUX, AMGN and FORM.
- Reiterated Underperform on ABC.

Business Week:
- Sohu.com Inc. will benefit from growth in China’s online advertising market, citing CE Unterberg Towbin analyst Tian Hou.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
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CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ATW/.25
CPRT/.27
DDS/-.20
NX/1.48

Upcoming Splits
RRC 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for November is estimated to rise to 210K versus 56K in October.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for November is estimated to fall to 5K versus 12K in October.
- The Unemployment Rate for November is estimated to remain at 5.0% versus 5.0% in October.
- Average Hourly Earnings for November are estimated to rise .2% versus a .5% gain in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher on strength in tech stocks in the region after more positive US economic reports. I expect US equities open modestly higher and to build on gains later in the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, December 01, 2005

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Increasing Optimism, Strong Economic Growth, Decelerating Inflation

Indices
S&P 500 1,264.67 +1.22%
DJIA 10,912.57 +.99%
NASDAQ 2,267.17 +1.54%
Russell 2000 690.21 +1.91%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,659.74 +1.31%
S&P Barra Growth 605.16 +1.14%
S&P Barra Value 655.12 +1.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 593.37 +.90%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 784.87 +1.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 538.00 +1.71%
Transports 4,157.93 +1.07%
Utilities 403.27 +.78%
Put/Call .82 -2.38%
NYSE Arms .81 -50.99%
Volatility(VIX) 11.24 -6.80%
ISE Sentiment 155.00 -6.06%
US Dollar 91.82 +.27%
CRB 320.71 +2.05%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.56 +.15%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.91 +.42%
Natural Gas 13.04 +.11%
Heating Oil 173.85 -.01%
Gold 507.70 +.28%
Base Metals 148.99 +2.45%
Copper 199.80 -.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +.70%

Leading Sectors
Steel +4.23%
Semis +4.21%
Oil Service +3.36%

Lagging Sectors
Banks +.70%
Biotech +.70%
Defense +.62%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on PFGC and UTX.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US economy will grow an above-average 3.5% this year and 3.4% next year, according to estimates by the Bush administration’s top economists.
- Goldman Sachs Group, the Carlyle Group and Riverstone Holdings are putting up $500 million to back a new oil and natural-gas explorer led by the former president of Unocal Corp.
- Former President Clinton said the US should restructure how its troops are deployed in Iraq without setting a firm timetable for a withdrawal.
- Shares of US Steel and AK Steel rose on speculation they may be targets for takeover by the loser in the bidding for Canadian steelmaker Dofasco.
- Crude oil, heating oil and gas rose for a second day on speculation that colder weather would boost demand.

Globe and Mail:
- The elderly of New Orleans and its suburbs were at greatest risk after Hurricane Katrina; about 60% of the 623 victims identified so far were older than 60, citing census and state data.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Retail longs, Computer longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very positive as the major averages finished sharply higher with strong breadth and volume. Every sector I follow was positive. Moreover, the 10-year Treasury note yield finished only slightly higher, notwithstanding good economic data, stock gains and the rise in energy prices. Today’s action looked very much like a function of p/e multiple expansion as the irrational pessimism that has enveloped the US stock market since the bursting of the bubble in 2000 continues to lift. I expect DJIA 11,000 to give way within the next 10 days.

Stocks Sharply Higher Mid-day on Strong Economic Growth, Short-covering and More Optimism

Indices
S&P 500 1,264.32 +1.19%
DJIA 10,919.93 +1.05%
NASDAQ 2,265.27 +1.45%
Russell 2000 689.39 +1.79%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,653.27 +1.25%
S&P Barra Growth 605.05 +1.12%
S&P Barra Value 654.95 +1.26%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 593.50 +.93%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 784.03 +1.27%
Morgan Stanley Technology 537.76 +1.67%
Transports 4,157.71 +1.07%
Utilities 403.33 +.80%
Put/Call .86 +2.38%
NYSE Arms .68 -58.60%
Volatility(VIX) 11.19 -7.21%
ISE Sentiment 139.00 -15.76%
US Dollar 91.89 +.35%
CRB 318.59 +1.37%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.75 +.75%
Unleaded Gasoline 153.80 +2.73%
Natural Gas 12.70 +.90%
Heating Oil 171.25 +1.50%
Gold 506.80 +1.62%
Base Metals 148.99 +2.45%
Copper 199.95 +3.82%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.52% +.83%

Leading Sectors
Semis +3.86%
Steel +3.81%
Gold & Silver +3.15%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities +.66%
Defense +.57%
Broadcasting +.29%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Airlines and Medical longs. I covered my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning and added ANF long into weakness, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, every sector is higher and volume is heavy. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is very positive considering the bounce in oil and long-term rates. SanDisk (SNDK), a recent short addition, is down 88 cents to around session lows. This decline is occurring even with an almost 4% rise in the SOX and rumors of its addition to the S&P 500. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close as strong economic data, short-covering and more optimism once again offsets the bounce in rates and oil.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Intel said it will build a $3.5 billion plant in Israel to extend its lead in the production of microprocessors after receiving assurances of a $525 million government grant.
- Wal-Mart Stores said US November sales rose 4.3% as shoppers bought Metro 7 apparel and $997 plasma televisions for the holidays.
- The euro is falling against the dollar as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said today’s interest rate increase isn’t the start of a series.
- President Bush said he is tapping US religious groups to help people in the developing world who are infected with HIV/AIDS get treatment.
- Ford Motor said its November US sales of cars and trucks fell 15%, led by sport-utility vehicles. DaimlerChrysler’s sales dropped 2.7% and Toyota Motor’s increased 10%.
- US Ambassador John Bolton said the United Nations demonstrated its irrelevance today by adopting six resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including non-binding calls for Israel to withdraw from the West Bank and Golan Heights.

Wall Street Journal:
- Schering-Plough and other drugmakers are donating to charities set up to help insured patients who can’t afford the higher premiums and co-payments insurance companies require.
- General Electric’s consumer-finance group is installing self-service kiosks at Ikea, a Swedish-owned home-furnishing retailer, to enable people to apply for credit right away.
- US home prices will probably rise at a slower pace but won’t experience a nationwide decline, Michael T. Darda, chief economist and director of research at MKM Partners, wrote.
- American Express aims to attract engaged couples and newlyweds with credit cards that offer discounts on services such as wedding-planning.
- Bank of America may say today that it will cut its online stock-trading fees to as little as $7 per trade for checking-account customers and to $5 for some rich investors.
- Television talk show host Oprah Winfrey has become so popular on the pan-Arab satellite station MBC that the broadcaster has made her the centerpiece for programs of its own.
- Skype Technologies SA will soon release a software update and compatible telephone handsets that may turn the Internet phone network into a mainstream service.

NY Times:
- The number of NYC residents under the age of five grew more than 26% between 2000 and 2004.

USA Today:
- The US will propose next year a new form of identification in a bid to make border crossing easier for Americans and Canadians.

Financial Times:
- Junk bonds and debt from emerging market borrowers, which for years traded in parallel, have drifted apart.

El Moudjahid:
- BP Plc plans to spend $300 million on oil and gas exploration in Algeria over the next three years, citing Akli Brihi, the director of the company’s branch in the North African state.