BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Medical longs and Telecom longs. I covered some of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is heavy. US stocks are performing relatively well versus other major global indices.
Here are the five major global indices with the smallest losses from their 52-week highs:
1. U.S.: S&P 500, -5.2%
2. Canada: S&P/TSX Composite, -5.3%
3. U.K.: FTSE 100, -6.1%
4. Israel: Tel Aviv 100, -6.0%
5. Italy: MIB 30, -6.5%
Here are the five major global indices with the worst losses from their 52-week highs:
1. Thailand: Bangkok SET Index, -13.8%
2. India: Sensex, -15.7%
3. Turkey: ISE National 100, -15.8%
4. Venezuela: Caracas Stock Exchange, -17.0%
5. Ukraine: PFTS Index, -19.5%
I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.
Monday, March 05, 2007
Stocks Lower into Finaly Hour on Continuing Emerging Market and Sup-prime Worries
Today's Headlines
- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) overtook Goldman Sachs Group(GS) as the largest US hedge-fund manager, according to a survey released today.
- Crude oil is falling $1.50/bbl. as speculator cut long positions on signs of slowing global growth.
- Crude oil production by members of OPEC dropped 85,000 bpd in February, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Gold is falling another $4/oz. and has declined over $50/oz. over the last five days and speculators continue to cut long positions as the US dollar stabilizes and inflation worries diminish.
- Motorola(MOT) may be preparing for a fight to keep billionaire activist Carl Icahn off its board.
- Emerging market stocks fell the most in more than eight months, led by Russian natural-gas producer OAO Gazprom.
Wall Street Journal:
- Palm Inc.(PALM) is working with Morgan Stanley(MS) to evaluate strategic options including a sale, private equity investment or acquisition.
- Iraq’s draft oil law, endorsed last month, lists dozens of intact oil fields with proven reserves and other spots for exploration. The draft legislation, expected to be approved this month, may open the country’s 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves to overseas investors.
- Mutual funds that focus on emerging-market stocks are biding their time, hoping to pick up shares more cheaply, and that’s caused markets to fall.
NY Times:
- Chevron Corp.(CVX), Exxon Mobil(XOM) and other major oil companies are injecting high-pressure steam and carbon dioxide to increase output of oil fields. Technological advances have increased recoverable reserves to 4.8 trillion barrels today from 3.3 trillion in 2000, citing Cambridge Energy Research.
Kommersant:
- Russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg plans to invest $1 billion in developing wind and solar power.
O Estado de S. Paulo:
- Brazil, the word’s only major exporter of ethanol, will seek to end tariffs limiting its sales of the biofuel to the US and other countries during talks with the World Trade Organization.
- Crude oil is falling $1.50/bbl. as speculator cut long positions on signs of slowing global growth.
- Crude oil production by members of OPEC dropped 85,000 bpd in February, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Gold is falling another $4/oz. and has declined over $50/oz. over the last five days and speculators continue to cut long positions as the US dollar stabilizes and inflation worries diminish.
- Motorola(MOT) may be preparing for a fight to keep billionaire activist Carl Icahn off its board.
- Emerging market stocks fell the most in more than eight months, led by Russian natural-gas producer OAO Gazprom.
Wall Street Journal:
- Palm Inc.(PALM) is working with Morgan Stanley(MS) to evaluate strategic options including a sale, private equity investment or acquisition.
- Iraq’s draft oil law, endorsed last month, lists dozens of intact oil fields with proven reserves and other spots for exploration. The draft legislation, expected to be approved this month, may open the country’s 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves to overseas investors.
- Mutual funds that focus on emerging-market stocks are biding their time, hoping to pick up shares more cheaply, and that’s caused markets to fall.
NY Times:
- Chevron Corp.(CVX), Exxon Mobil(XOM) and other major oil companies are injecting high-pressure steam and carbon dioxide to increase output of oil fields. Technological advances have increased recoverable reserves to 4.8 trillion barrels today from 3.3 trillion in 2000, citing Cambridge Energy Research.
Kommersant:
- Russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg plans to invest $1 billion in developing wind and solar power.
O Estado de S. Paulo:
- Brazil, the word’s only major exporter of ethanol, will seek to end tariffs limiting its sales of the biofuel to the US and other countries during talks with the World Trade Organization.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Decelerates, Still Expanding
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February fell to 54.3 versus estimates of 57.1 and a reading of 59.0 in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Service industries in the US expanded at a slower pace in February, Bloomberg reported. However, the employment component of the index rose to 52.2 from 51.7 the prior month. As well, the inventories component rose to 50.5 from 47 in January. Finally, the prices paid component fell to 54.8 from 55.4 in January. Consumer spending, which comprises more than two-thirds of the economy, remains healthy. Spending increased more than forecast in January and incomes rose by the most in a year, reports showed last week. I continue to believe the service sector will remain healthy over the intermediate-term as stocks resume their uptrend, weather becomes more seasonal, housing stabilizes at relatively high levels, interest rates remain low, inflation decelerates and the job market remains healthy.
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fed Chairman Bernanke said late Friday evening that the tie between slack in the economy and prices has eased and that “there is still some overstatement of inflation.” He also said the prime mortgage market still seems “strong” and that there is no spillover of sub-prime to prime problems. Bernanke said the Fed is monitoring the mortgage market carefully.
- Crude oil is falling for the second day in NY on concerns that global economic growth will slow and investment funds are reducing risk in commodities.
- Copper futures in Shanghai fell for a second day amid concern that demand in China, the world’s biggest user of the metal, will slow if the government takes further steps to slow economic growth.
- President Bush asked American to contribute to the Red Cross and other relief agencies to aid tornado-stricken southern states during a visit to Alabama and Georgia to view storm damage.
- Hundreds of Russian policeman, many in riot gear, clashed with demonstrators in St. Petersburg led by former chess champion Garry Kasparov who rallied against what they say is a crackdown on democracy by President Vladimir Putin.
- The SEC froze more than $5.3 million in profits from suspected insider trading of TXU Corp.(TXU) stock options that were bought days before a $45 billion takeover of the company.
- Asian currencies posted a weekly loss, led by the Philippines peso and Indonesia’s rupiah, on concern a slump in stock prices will prompt investors to withdraw funds from the region.
- Moody’s Investors Service gave its highest bond ratings to certain debt of JPMorgan Chase(JPM), State Street Bank & Trust(STT) and Bank of New York(BK).
- Treasury benchmark 10-year notes posted their biggest weekly gains in five months as global investors sought the safety of US government debt amid declines in stocks.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, found a light grade of crude oil off the coast of Espirito Santo state, raising expectations there are large new oil reserves below existing offshore deposits. The new well, shows signs of producing about 10,000 barrels a day, may be part of a field with reserves of as much as 570 million barrels. It may also extend the size of similar finds beneath a salt layer that lays below existing oil fields in the nearby Campos Basin, Petrobras said.
- Technology analyst Rick Shurlund, who covered software companies such as Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) for more than two decades at Goldman Sachs Group(GS), will join the Galleon Group hedge fund next month.
- China will boost its 2007 defense budget 17.8% to $45 billion, the most in five years, as an expanding economy gives the world’s largest regular army the means to upgrade its equipment.
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said foreign holdings of US government debt pose no threat to the economy, countering comments made by leading Democrats including Senator Hillary Clinton.
- OPEC will probably keep its production quotas unchanged when ministers meet March 15, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said. “Prices are expected to stabilize between $50 and $60” a barrel, he said.
- China’s investment in factories and plants must support the nation’s goals of reducing energy demand, the head of the country’s top economic planning body said. “We will follow an energy saving evaluation and examination system for fixed-asset investment projects and make energy efficiency a mandatory criterion in project examination, approval and development,” Ma Kai, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
- Cnooc Ltd., China’s largest offshore oil producer, will increase its oil and gas production by at least 18% next year, Chairman Fu Chengyu said. China’s 2007 output of oil products will be enough to cover demand.
Marketwatch.com:
- One day’s sell-off does not a bear market make. That is the message from the top-performing market-timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.
NY Times:
- An Environmental Protection Agency study, titled United States Climate Action Report, predicts emissions will decelerate to 11% from 2002-2012, compared with 11.6% the prior decade.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) is buying the technology assets of social-networking Web site Tribe.net. The purchase of Tribe.net, along with its recent acquisition of social-network design firm Five Across, will give Cisco the technology to create video services for corporate clients.
- Soaring crop prices, strong export markets and growing demand for biofuels are adding up to good times for many American farmers. So it’s not surprising that farmland, particularly in the upper Midwest, has begun to reflect that good fortune with rapidly rising prices.
Business Week:
- The outlook for US stocks is surprisingly upbeat despite recent volatility..
San Jose Mercury News:
- The Silicon Valley job market is sizzling. Employers in California’s Silicon Valley hired 2.9% more workers in January compared with a year earlier. It was the fastest rate of jobs growth since a 3.8% rise in the year to March 2001, near the end of the dot-com bubble.
Detroit News:
- Blackstone Group LP, a private equity company, may be the leading contender to buy the US unit of Germany’s DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX).
AP:
- NAACP President Bruce Gordon is quitting as chief of the civil rights organization 19 months after taking over, citing strained relations with the board.
- Diebold Inc.(DBD), a US maker of safes and automatic teller machines, may sell its electronic voting machine unit, citing analysts.
InfoWorld:
- Despite its CEO’s claims that Microsoft eventually will trump Google(GOOG) to be number one in online search revenue, the company’s online business is “massively underperforming” against the competition, according to a leading financial analyst.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel-Lucent(ALU), the world’s biggest maker of telecommunications equipment, will “resume growth as we move through the year,” citing and interview with CEO Patricia Russo.
- Four banks and a real estate data association are prepared to open the first US commercial property derivatives market as early as this week.
- The issue of Europe is the “big forgotten issue” of the French presidential campaign at a time when the country should reassess its “arrogant” and isolated position, citing an interview with European Union Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot. Both French presidential candidates use the EU as a scapegoat for France’s problems, Barrot said.
London-based Times:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) posted an 83% gain in revenue from UK advertising last year. Google is the UK’s second-biggest advertising earner behind ITV Plc.
Globe and Mail:
- “It’s even worse than a casino,” complained Li Daqing, one of the investors at this trading hall, who has been investing in the Chinese market since 1996. “At least a casino has some rules. The Chinese stock market has no rules. I hate this market. It’s controlled by the government. It can’t be a fair game if the referee is also one of the players.”
WirtschaftsWoche:
- SAP AG(SAP) has attracted interest from US buyout firm Silver Lake Partners and Hewlett-Packard(HPQ).
China Daily:
- China’s Premier Wen Jiabao today will announce measures to slow economic growth to 8% this year. Wen will propose stronger measures to control fixed-asset investment and credit growth. The Chinese government’s primary mission this year will be to restrain economic growth, and it may focus on stabilizing prices and reducing unemployment.
Nikkei:
- Advantest Corp.(ATE) expects a 23% increase in operating profit next fiscal year, as the release of Microsoft’s Windows Vista operating system drives sales of its chip testers.
- Kyocera Corp., the world’s third-largest maker of solar cells, plans to spend as much as $428 million to double its output of solar cells by March 2011.
China Securities Journal:
- China must restrain energy consumption to prevent a rebound in fixed-asset investment, citing Zhang Zhuoyuan, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Tighter energy use and emission standards should be imposed to restrict investment growth in low-efficiency industries. China’s energy consumption growth has already declined to 9.3% last year from 15.3% in 2003.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s stock market lacks hedging tools and the index is distorted by heavily weighted financial stocks, citing Ba Shusong, a senior State Council researcher. The combination of lack of stock market diversity and insufficient hedging tools is likely to amplify market fluctuations, and the limited number of investment channels means too much money is concentrated in stocks, Ba said.
Iran:
- Iran plans to issue a new banknote featuring a nuclear motif, citing the government press office.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (WFMI), (WFR), (FEIC), (VRTX), (GILD), (GOOG) and (AAP).
- Made negative comments on (AVB).
Citigroup:
- Retailers with heavy seasonal exposure and inventory leftover from winter's mild start were probably the big winners in February. We favor (AAP), (AZO), (ODP) and (TSCO) as our best new money ideas.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.40%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.48%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ADCT)/.05
- (FNSR)/.03
- (MIR)/.18
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus a reading of 59.0 in January.
Bloomberg:
- Fed Chairman Bernanke said late Friday evening that the tie between slack in the economy and prices has eased and that “there is still some overstatement of inflation.” He also said the prime mortgage market still seems “strong” and that there is no spillover of sub-prime to prime problems. Bernanke said the Fed is monitoring the mortgage market carefully.
- Crude oil is falling for the second day in NY on concerns that global economic growth will slow and investment funds are reducing risk in commodities.
- Copper futures in Shanghai fell for a second day amid concern that demand in China, the world’s biggest user of the metal, will slow if the government takes further steps to slow economic growth.
- President Bush asked American to contribute to the Red Cross and other relief agencies to aid tornado-stricken southern states during a visit to Alabama and Georgia to view storm damage.
- Hundreds of Russian policeman, many in riot gear, clashed with demonstrators in St. Petersburg led by former chess champion Garry Kasparov who rallied against what they say is a crackdown on democracy by President Vladimir Putin.
- The SEC froze more than $5.3 million in profits from suspected insider trading of TXU Corp.(TXU) stock options that were bought days before a $45 billion takeover of the company.
- Asian currencies posted a weekly loss, led by the Philippines peso and Indonesia’s rupiah, on concern a slump in stock prices will prompt investors to withdraw funds from the region.
- Moody’s Investors Service gave its highest bond ratings to certain debt of JPMorgan Chase(JPM), State Street Bank & Trust(STT) and Bank of New York(BK).
- Treasury benchmark 10-year notes posted their biggest weekly gains in five months as global investors sought the safety of US government debt amid declines in stocks.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, found a light grade of crude oil off the coast of Espirito Santo state, raising expectations there are large new oil reserves below existing offshore deposits. The new well, shows signs of producing about 10,000 barrels a day, may be part of a field with reserves of as much as 570 million barrels. It may also extend the size of similar finds beneath a salt layer that lays below existing oil fields in the nearby Campos Basin, Petrobras said.
- Technology analyst Rick Shurlund, who covered software companies such as Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) for more than two decades at Goldman Sachs Group(GS), will join the Galleon Group hedge fund next month.
- China will boost its 2007 defense budget 17.8% to $45 billion, the most in five years, as an expanding economy gives the world’s largest regular army the means to upgrade its equipment.
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said foreign holdings of US government debt pose no threat to the economy, countering comments made by leading Democrats including Senator Hillary Clinton.
- OPEC will probably keep its production quotas unchanged when ministers meet March 15, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said. “Prices are expected to stabilize between $50 and $60” a barrel, he said.
- China’s investment in factories and plants must support the nation’s goals of reducing energy demand, the head of the country’s top economic planning body said. “We will follow an energy saving evaluation and examination system for fixed-asset investment projects and make energy efficiency a mandatory criterion in project examination, approval and development,” Ma Kai, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
- Cnooc Ltd., China’s largest offshore oil producer, will increase its oil and gas production by at least 18% next year, Chairman Fu Chengyu said. China’s 2007 output of oil products will be enough to cover demand.
Marketwatch.com:
- One day’s sell-off does not a bear market make. That is the message from the top-performing market-timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.
NY Times:
- An Environmental Protection Agency study, titled United States Climate Action Report, predicts emissions will decelerate to 11% from 2002-2012, compared with 11.6% the prior decade.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) is buying the technology assets of social-networking Web site Tribe.net. The purchase of Tribe.net, along with its recent acquisition of social-network design firm Five Across, will give Cisco the technology to create video services for corporate clients.
- Soaring crop prices, strong export markets and growing demand for biofuels are adding up to good times for many American farmers. So it’s not surprising that farmland, particularly in the upper Midwest, has begun to reflect that good fortune with rapidly rising prices.
Business Week:
- The outlook for US stocks is surprisingly upbeat despite recent volatility..
San Jose Mercury News:
- The Silicon Valley job market is sizzling. Employers in California’s Silicon Valley hired 2.9% more workers in January compared with a year earlier. It was the fastest rate of jobs growth since a 3.8% rise in the year to March 2001, near the end of the dot-com bubble.
Detroit News:
- Blackstone Group LP, a private equity company, may be the leading contender to buy the US unit of Germany’s DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX).
AP:
- NAACP President Bruce Gordon is quitting as chief of the civil rights organization 19 months after taking over, citing strained relations with the board.
- Diebold Inc.(DBD), a US maker of safes and automatic teller machines, may sell its electronic voting machine unit, citing analysts.
InfoWorld:
- Despite its CEO’s claims that Microsoft eventually will trump Google(GOOG) to be number one in online search revenue, the company’s online business is “massively underperforming” against the competition, according to a leading financial analyst.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel-Lucent(ALU), the world’s biggest maker of telecommunications equipment, will “resume growth as we move through the year,” citing and interview with CEO Patricia Russo.
- Four banks and a real estate data association are prepared to open the first US commercial property derivatives market as early as this week.
- The issue of Europe is the “big forgotten issue” of the French presidential campaign at a time when the country should reassess its “arrogant” and isolated position, citing an interview with European Union Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot. Both French presidential candidates use the EU as a scapegoat for France’s problems, Barrot said.
London-based Times:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) posted an 83% gain in revenue from UK advertising last year. Google is the UK’s second-biggest advertising earner behind ITV Plc.
Globe and Mail:
- “It’s even worse than a casino,” complained Li Daqing, one of the investors at this trading hall, who has been investing in the Chinese market since 1996. “At least a casino has some rules. The Chinese stock market has no rules. I hate this market. It’s controlled by the government. It can’t be a fair game if the referee is also one of the players.”
WirtschaftsWoche:
- SAP AG(SAP) has attracted interest from US buyout firm Silver Lake Partners and Hewlett-Packard(HPQ).
China Daily:
- China’s Premier Wen Jiabao today will announce measures to slow economic growth to 8% this year. Wen will propose stronger measures to control fixed-asset investment and credit growth. The Chinese government’s primary mission this year will be to restrain economic growth, and it may focus on stabilizing prices and reducing unemployment.
Nikkei:
- Advantest Corp.(ATE) expects a 23% increase in operating profit next fiscal year, as the release of Microsoft’s Windows Vista operating system drives sales of its chip testers.
- Kyocera Corp., the world’s third-largest maker of solar cells, plans to spend as much as $428 million to double its output of solar cells by March 2011.
China Securities Journal:
- China must restrain energy consumption to prevent a rebound in fixed-asset investment, citing Zhang Zhuoyuan, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Tighter energy use and emission standards should be imposed to restrict investment growth in low-efficiency industries. China’s energy consumption growth has already declined to 9.3% last year from 15.3% in 2003.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s stock market lacks hedging tools and the index is distorted by heavily weighted financial stocks, citing Ba Shusong, a senior State Council researcher. The combination of lack of stock market diversity and insufficient hedging tools is likely to amplify market fluctuations, and the limited number of investment channels means too much money is concentrated in stocks, Ba said.
Iran:
- Iran plans to issue a new banknote featuring a nuclear motif, citing the government press office.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (WFMI), (WFR), (FEIC), (VRTX), (GILD), (GOOG) and (AAP).
- Made negative comments on (AVB).
Citigroup:
- Retailers with heavy seasonal exposure and inventory leftover from winter's mild start were probably the big winners in February. We favor (AAP), (AZO), (ODP) and (TSCO) as our best new money ideas.
Night Trading
Asian indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.40%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.48%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ADCT)/.05
- (FNSR)/.03
- (MIR)/.18
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus a reading of 59.0 in January.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to trim losses into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch
There are several economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - ISM Non-Manufacturing
Tues. - Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity, Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs, Pending Home Sales, Factory Orders, weekly retail sales
Wed. - MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Fed’s Beige Book, Consumer Credit
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims
Fri. - Trade Balance, Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - ADC Telecom(ADCT), Mirant(MIR)
Tues. - 1-800 Contacts(CTAC), Brown-Forman(BF/B), Chico’s FAS(CHS), Conseco(CNO), Copart(CPRT), John Wiley & Sons(JW/A), Payless Shoesource(PSS)
Wed. - American Eagle Outfitters(AEOS), BJ’s Wholesale Club(BJ), Coldwater Creek(CWTR), Dick’s Sporting Goods(DKS), Foot Locker(FL), Genesco(GCO), Men’s Wearhouse(MW), Michaels Stores(MW), Saks Inc.(SKS), Talbots(TLB), Westwood One(WON)
Thur. - Anworth Mortgage(ANH), Cooper Cos(COO), Costco Wholesale(COST), Georgia Gulf(GGC), Hovnanian Enterprises, Korn/Ferry(KFY), National Semi(NSM), Neiman Marcus(NMG/A), Tech Data(TECD), Veritas DGC(VTS)
Fri. - Big Lots(BLI), Hibbett Sports(HIBB), Quiksilver(ZQK), Stage Stores(SSI), Urban Outfitters(URBN)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Merrill Lynch Global Auto Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, (XLNX) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Poole speaking, the Fed’s Warsh speaking
Tue. - Thomas Weisel Internet & Digital Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Citigroup Global Industrial Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, (JPM) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Plosser speaking
Wed. - Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, CIBC Retail Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, Citigroup Global Industrial Conference, Thomas Weisel Internet and Digital Media Conference, the Fed’s Moskow speaking
Thur. - Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Pacific Crest On-Demand Conference, monthly retail sales reports
Fri. - None of note
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch
There are several economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - ISM Non-Manufacturing
Tues. - Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity, Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs, Pending Home Sales, Factory Orders, weekly retail sales
Wed. - MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Fed’s Beige Book, Consumer Credit
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims
Fri. - Trade Balance, Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Wholesale Inventories
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - ADC Telecom(ADCT), Mirant(MIR)
Tues. - 1-800 Contacts(CTAC), Brown-Forman(BF/B), Chico’s FAS(CHS), Conseco(CNO), Copart(CPRT), John Wiley & Sons(JW/A), Payless Shoesource(PSS)
Wed. - American Eagle Outfitters(AEOS), BJ’s Wholesale Club(BJ), Coldwater Creek(CWTR), Dick’s Sporting Goods(DKS), Foot Locker(FL), Genesco(GCO), Men’s Wearhouse(MW), Michaels Stores(MW), Saks Inc.(SKS), Talbots(TLB), Westwood One(WON)
Thur. - Anworth Mortgage(ANH), Cooper Cos(COO), Costco Wholesale(COST), Georgia Gulf(GGC), Hovnanian Enterprises, Korn/Ferry(KFY), National Semi(NSM), Neiman Marcus(NMG/A), Tech Data(TECD), Veritas DGC(VTS)
Fri. - Big Lots(BLI), Hibbett Sports(HIBB), Quiksilver(ZQK), Stage Stores(SSI), Urban Outfitters(URBN)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Merrill Lynch Global Auto Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, (XLNX) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Poole speaking, the Fed’s Warsh speaking
Tue. - Thomas Weisel Internet & Digital Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Citigroup Global Industrial Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, (JPM) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Plosser speaking
Wed. - Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, CIBC Retail Conference, Bear Stearns Media Conference, Citigroup Global Property Conference, Citigroup Global Industrial Conference, Thomas Weisel Internet and Digital Media Conference, the Fed’s Moskow speaking
Thur. - Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, Pacific Crest On-Demand Conference, monthly retail sales reports
Fri. - None of note
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as mostly positive earnings reports, constructive Fed commentary, buyout speculation, lower energy prices, short-covering and bargain-hunting offset lingering sub-prime mortgage and emerging market concerns. My trading indicators are giving mostly bearish signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)