BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Telecom longs, Biotech longs, Semi longs and Retail longs. I covered my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is above average. Yesterday, the Philly Fed reported its Leading Economic Index for February, which is a future gauge of activity for New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware. It rose at a 3.4% rate, the best in at least a year and up from a 1.1% rate in November of last year. Biotechs are outperforming substantially today and Gilead (GILD) is hitting an all-time high. I remain long the stock. Same-store sales for March rose an above-estimates 5.9%. It was the best March since 2004, despite higher energy prices and the drag from housing. While better weather did contribute to this strong performance, many bears said weather wasn't an excuse for retailers during one of the coldest Februarys in U.S. history. Moreover, March sales were strong across the board, even at many lower-end retailers. I see little evidence that only high-end retail is doing well, which is a myth that has been perpetuated in many circles for several years now, even as most of the stocks have moved meaningfully higher. More than weather or the calendar, I suspect the very healthy job market is the main reason sales were strong.
Here are some examples of non high-end retailers that had exceptionally strong same-store-sales during March:
Company Actual Estimate
BJ's Wholesale (BJ) +5.5% 1.20%
Dollar General (DG) +5.5% +5.6%
Family Dollar (FDO) +5.8% +4.0%
Fred's (FRED) +4.4% +2.5%
JC Penney (JCP) +10.6% +7.4%
Kohl's (KSS) +16.8% 9.90%
Ross Stores (ROST) +6.0% +4.6%
Stein Mart (SMRT) +8.0% +5.0%
Target (TGT) +12.0% 12.00%
TJX Companies (TJX) +6.0% +4.6%
Wal-Mart (WMT) +4.0% +1.7%
Dress Barn (DBRN) +12.0% +5.0%
Costco (COST) +6.0% +5.0%
I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering, more economic optimism, stable long-term rates and bargain-hunting.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Strong March Retail Sales
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The shares of MedImmune Inc.(MEDI) rose after a report that the company, maker of the FluMist nasal spray vaccine, hired Goldman Sachs Group to explore a possible sale.
- Jones Apparel Group(JNY) may sell its Barneys NY unit for more than $1 billion to a private-equity fund linked to Qatar’s royal family.
- Valero Energy(VLO), the largest gasoline refiner in the US, said it’s McKee oil refinery won’t reach full capacity this year. Low refinery utilization, as a result of “outages,” has been the driving force behind higher gas prices this year. Oil surged 1.84/bbl. on the news.
- California home prices rose last month, with the median price in Southern California setting a record, DataQuick Information Systems said.
- US retailers, led by Wal-Mart Stores(WMT), reported March sales rose 5.9%, the best March since 2004 on strong purchases of holiday gifts and spring clothing.
- The al-Qaeda-linked group that killed 33 people in Algeria yesterday has members in Europe and is targeting France, said French presidential candidate and former Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.
Wall Street Journal:
- Sub-Saharan Africa is starting to experience social and economic development after decades of deprivation and conflict, Paul Wolfowitz, the president of the World Bank, wrote. 17 countries, home to one in three Africans, have achieved annual growth rates of 4% or better in the past decade, with even higher growth in those that were ravaged by years of conflict, Wolfowitz said.
- Global Hyatt Corp. plans a new brand of luxury hotels called Andaz, with the first ones opening in London, NY and LA.
- US pension funds are adopting riskier investment strategies and are moving cash away from domestic stocks and into international shares and hedge funds in an attempt to juice returns. Some pension funds are giving their portfolio managers more freedom to engage in short selling the vary companies their investors may work for.
- A personal computer program that eliminates unwanted trial software, ads and offers can be downloaded at www.pcdecrapifier.com, Walter Mossberg writes.
- CBS Corp.(CBS) is set to announce deals to distribute television and other video programming to Web sites including Microsoft Corp.’s(MSFT) MSN and Time Warner’s(TWX) AOL.
- Ralph Whitworth, a US activist investor, has built a stake of almost 1% in mobile-phone company Sprint Nextel Corp.(S).
NY Times:
- A five-year effort to prosecute voter fraud has turned up little proof that problems exist, citing court records and interviews.
- The US military believes Iran may be supplying weapons and training to both Sunni and Shiite militias in Iraq, citing Major General William B. Caldwell.
Forbes:
- Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim Helu has passed investor Warren Buffett to become the world’s second-richest man.
Financial Times:
- A study ordered by Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank governors about hedge funds will not call for specific steps to boost regulations, citing a draft of a report expected next month.
Daily Telegraph:
- CVC Capital Partners Ltd., Centaurus Capital Ltd. and Cerberus Capital Management were among firms whose representatives were interrogated by hostile Dutch legislators of all parties at a parliamentary hearing in The Hague yesterday. Dutch politicians demanded laws to restrict the activities of British and US hedge funds and private-equity firms.
Dagens Industri:
- Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ) bid $3.3 billion for OMX AB and the board of the Swedish exchange will meet today to discuss the offer.
Vedomosti:
- Evraz Group SA is in talks to buy Canadian steelmaker Ipsco Inc.(IPS)
- The shares of MedImmune Inc.(MEDI) rose after a report that the company, maker of the FluMist nasal spray vaccine, hired Goldman Sachs Group to explore a possible sale.
- Jones Apparel Group(JNY) may sell its Barneys NY unit for more than $1 billion to a private-equity fund linked to Qatar’s royal family.
- Valero Energy(VLO), the largest gasoline refiner in the US, said it’s McKee oil refinery won’t reach full capacity this year. Low refinery utilization, as a result of “outages,” has been the driving force behind higher gas prices this year. Oil surged 1.84/bbl. on the news.
- California home prices rose last month, with the median price in Southern California setting a record, DataQuick Information Systems said.
- US retailers, led by Wal-Mart Stores(WMT), reported March sales rose 5.9%, the best March since 2004 on strong purchases of holiday gifts and spring clothing.
- The al-Qaeda-linked group that killed 33 people in Algeria yesterday has members in Europe and is targeting France, said French presidential candidate and former Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.
Wall Street Journal:
- Sub-Saharan Africa is starting to experience social and economic development after decades of deprivation and conflict, Paul Wolfowitz, the president of the World Bank, wrote. 17 countries, home to one in three Africans, have achieved annual growth rates of 4% or better in the past decade, with even higher growth in those that were ravaged by years of conflict, Wolfowitz said.
- Global Hyatt Corp. plans a new brand of luxury hotels called Andaz, with the first ones opening in London, NY and LA.
- US pension funds are adopting riskier investment strategies and are moving cash away from domestic stocks and into international shares and hedge funds in an attempt to juice returns. Some pension funds are giving their portfolio managers more freedom to engage in short selling the vary companies their investors may work for.
- A personal computer program that eliminates unwanted trial software, ads and offers can be downloaded at www.pcdecrapifier.com, Walter Mossberg writes.
- CBS Corp.(CBS) is set to announce deals to distribute television and other video programming to Web sites including Microsoft Corp.’s(MSFT) MSN and Time Warner’s(TWX) AOL.
- Ralph Whitworth, a US activist investor, has built a stake of almost 1% in mobile-phone company Sprint Nextel Corp.(S).
NY Times:
- A five-year effort to prosecute voter fraud has turned up little proof that problems exist, citing court records and interviews.
- The US military believes Iran may be supplying weapons and training to both Sunni and Shiite militias in Iraq, citing Major General William B. Caldwell.
Forbes:
- Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim Helu has passed investor Warren Buffett to become the world’s second-richest man.
Financial Times:
- A study ordered by Group of Seven finance ministers and central bank governors about hedge funds will not call for specific steps to boost regulations, citing a draft of a report expected next month.
Daily Telegraph:
- CVC Capital Partners Ltd., Centaurus Capital Ltd. and Cerberus Capital Management were among firms whose representatives were interrogated by hostile Dutch legislators of all parties at a parliamentary hearing in The Hague yesterday. Dutch politicians demanded laws to restrict the activities of British and US hedge funds and private-equity firms.
Dagens Industri:
- Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ) bid $3.3 billion for OMX AB and the board of the Swedish exchange will meet today to discuss the offer.
Vedomosti:
- Evraz Group SA is in talks to buy Canadian steelmaker Ipsco Inc.(IPS)
Jobless Claims, Import Prices Rise
- Initial Jobless Claims rose to 342K versus estimates of 320K and 323K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2527K versus estimates of 2505K and 2489K prior.
- The Import Price Index for March rose 1.7% versus estimates of a .8% gain and a downwardly revised .1% increase in February.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2527K versus estimates of 2505K and 2489K prior.
- The Import Price Index for March rose 1.7% versus estimates of a .8% gain and a downwardly revised .1% increase in February.
BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, influenced by the Easter holiday and school spring recess, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving-average of claims rose to 323,250 versus 316,250 the prior week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at 1.9%. I continue to believe the job market will remain very healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increase.
Prices of goods imported into the US rose last month, led by a surge in the costs of crude oil and natural gas, Bloomberg reported. The average price of a barrel of crude oil traded on the NY Merc rose to $62 on March 1 from $57.30 on February 1. Excluding energy, import prices only rose .2% in March. Prices for imported capital goods declined .1% versus a .2% decline in February. I expect import prices to decelerate from current levels over the intermediate-term as energy prices fall from current levels.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Cable-television network MSNBC, bowing to pressure from advertisers including General Motors(GM) and Sprint Nextel(S), said it will no longer simulcast Don Imus’s radio show.
- The Senate fell short of a veto-proof margin in approving legislation today to lift the ban on federal funding for new embryonic stem-cell research.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazils state-controlled oil company, may purchase tankers from Brazilian shipyards to export ethanol as the company moves to quadruple foreign sales of the biofuel.
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) said a power failure idled four units yesterday at its refinery in Baytown, Texas, the largest in the US. The incident was the sixth “malfunction” this year at the plant. Refinery “outages” have resulted in falling gasoline supplies which is boosting prices and gasoline crack spreads to record levels for this time of the year.
- Valero Energy(VLO), the largest US refiner, said emergency flaring was required yesterday at its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, possibly because a level control valve “malfunctioned.” Agency data indicates it was the plant’s eighth “malfunction” this year.
- The value of mergers and acquisitions in the defense and aerospace industry last year was $33 billion, the highest level since 2000, citing PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
- The Fed’s Moskow said high inflation is a greater risk than slow economic growth for the US economy. Moscow also said the fixed rate mortgage market appears fine and that it is very unlikely subprime problems will curb consumer spending.
- The economies of China and India may cool as interest rates rise in the world’s two fastest growing major economies, the International Monetary Fund said.
- Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds at the fastest pace in five months in the first week of the fiscal year, attracted by higher yields overseas.
Nikkei:
- The Bank of Japan may say that consumer prices will rise .3% during the current fiscal year, or slower than the .5% it projected in a report last October.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (AMAG) and (DNA).
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CBSH)/.76
- (CPWM)/.85
- (FAST)/.35
- (IFIN)/.51
- (JOSB)/1.25
- (KKD)/.05
- (LRCX)/1.08
- (MTG)/1.70
- (PIR)/-.28
- (PII)/.29
- (RAD)/.03
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 320K versus 321K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2505K versus 2492K prior.
- The Import Price Index for March is estimated to rise .8% versus a .2% gain in February.
Bloomberg:
- Cable-television network MSNBC, bowing to pressure from advertisers including General Motors(GM) and Sprint Nextel(S), said it will no longer simulcast Don Imus’s radio show.
- The Senate fell short of a veto-proof margin in approving legislation today to lift the ban on federal funding for new embryonic stem-cell research.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR), Brazils state-controlled oil company, may purchase tankers from Brazilian shipyards to export ethanol as the company moves to quadruple foreign sales of the biofuel.
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) said a power failure idled four units yesterday at its refinery in Baytown, Texas, the largest in the US. The incident was the sixth “malfunction” this year at the plant. Refinery “outages” have resulted in falling gasoline supplies which is boosting prices and gasoline crack spreads to record levels for this time of the year.
- Valero Energy(VLO), the largest US refiner, said emergency flaring was required yesterday at its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, possibly because a level control valve “malfunctioned.” Agency data indicates it was the plant’s eighth “malfunction” this year.
- The value of mergers and acquisitions in the defense and aerospace industry last year was $33 billion, the highest level since 2000, citing PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
- The Fed’s Moskow said high inflation is a greater risk than slow economic growth for the US economy. Moscow also said the fixed rate mortgage market appears fine and that it is very unlikely subprime problems will curb consumer spending.
- The economies of China and India may cool as interest rates rise in the world’s two fastest growing major economies, the International Monetary Fund said.
- Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds at the fastest pace in five months in the first week of the fiscal year, attracted by higher yields overseas.
Nikkei:
- The Bank of Japan may say that consumer prices will rise .3% during the current fiscal year, or slower than the .5% it projected in a report last October.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (AMAG) and (DNA).
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CBSH)/.76
- (CPWM)/.85
- (FAST)/.35
- (IFIN)/.51
- (JOSB)/1.25
- (KKD)/.05
- (LRCX)/1.08
- (MTG)/1.70
- (PIR)/-.28
- (PII)/.29
- (RAD)/.03
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 320K versus 321K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2505K versus 2492K prior.
- The Import Price Index for March is estimated to rise .8% versus a .2% gain in February.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by automaker and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Lower After FOMC Minutes and Rise in Gas Prices
Indices
S&P 500 1,438.87 -.66%
DJIA 12,484.62 -.71%
NASDAQ 2,459.31 -.74%
Russell 2000 808.24 -.77%
Wilshire 5000 14,538.44 -.64%
Russell 1000 Growth 567.24 -.67%
Russell 1000 Value 831.59 -.63%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 708.38 -.69%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 970.02 -.42%
Morgan Stanley Technology 568.99 -.86%
Transports 4,970.02 -.49%
Utilities 513.17 -.42%
MSCI Emerging Markets 120.99 +.09%
Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .99 -9.17%
NYSE Arms 1.03 +5.05%
Volatility(VIX) 13.49 +6.39%
ISE Sentiment 136.0 +10.57%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.04 +.24%
Reformulated Gasoline 215.50 +1.53%
Natural Gas 7.81 -.80%
Heating Oil 187.28 +.90%
Gold 682.0 +.07%
Base Metals 273.57 -.02%
Copper 357.50 +1.39%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.73% +1 basis point
US Dollar 82.64 -.07%
CRB Index 316.58 +.04%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +.53%
Hospitals +.50%
Engineering & Construction +.33%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -1.41%
Homebuilders -1.61%
REITs -1.65%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (GS), (IFIN), (C), (LEH), (BK), (MEL), (STT), (NT), (ET), (SCHW) and (MER) Buy.
- Rated (PNC), (NCC), (USB), (KEY), (FITB) and (TCB).
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- NovaStar Financial(NFI), a subprime home lender, announced it’s formally exploring “a range of strategic alternatives,” including a possible sale. The shares are soaring 17% after-hours.
- Three former Duke Univ. lacrosse players were cleared of sexually assaulting a stripper, ending a racially charged case that North Carolina’s top lawman said was pushed along by an “unchecked” prosecutor.
- Comcast Corp.(CMCSA) agreed to buy online movie-ticket seller fandango.
- Genentech Inc.(DNA) said first-quarter profit rose 68%, driven by sales of its cancer drugs Avastin and Rituxin. The stock is slightly higher after-hours.
- Research In Motion’s(RIMM) fourth-quarter profit soared after the company introduced new BlackBerry e-mail devices and took customers from rivals. The company also said a SEC informal probe had been converted to formal. The shares fell 6.8% after-hours.
- General Motors(GM) has pulled its ads from radio host Don Imus’s morning show after his remarks about the Rutgers University women’s basketball team.
- US Democratic Senator Charles Schumer and other members of a key banking committee said the federal government should spend “hundreds of millions of dollars” to bail out subprime mortgage borrowers facing foreclosure.
- Kraft Foods(KFT) may generate as much as $2 billion in free cash flow a year that could be used to acquire companies, a Davenport analyst said.
- American Eagle Outfitters(AEO) said March same-store-sales soared 20.0% versus estimates of a 10.9% gain. The shares rose 4% after-hours.
- Advanced Magnetics(AMAG) reported positive results from two additional human studies of its intravenous iron replacement therapy. The shares surged 13% after-hours.
Nikkei English News:
- Sony Corp.(SNE) will become the first company to mass-produce organic electroluminescent televisions when it begins making them later this year. Sony will start making about 1,000 of the 11-inch panels a month as soon as this year. The televisions emit light when an electrical charge is passed through them, and are thinner, lighter and have a better picture quality than existing liquid-crystal displays.
AFP:
- The European Union will consider the creation of a “strategic reserve” of border guards to prevent the flow of illegal immigrants, citing EU parliament lawmaker Gerard Deprez.
S&P 500 1,438.87 -.66%
DJIA 12,484.62 -.71%
NASDAQ 2,459.31 -.74%
Russell 2000 808.24 -.77%
Wilshire 5000 14,538.44 -.64%
Russell 1000 Growth 567.24 -.67%
Russell 1000 Value 831.59 -.63%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 708.38 -.69%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 970.02 -.42%
Morgan Stanley Technology 568.99 -.86%
Transports 4,970.02 -.49%
Utilities 513.17 -.42%
MSCI Emerging Markets 120.99 +.09%
Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .99 -9.17%
NYSE Arms 1.03 +5.05%
Volatility(VIX) 13.49 +6.39%
ISE Sentiment 136.0 +10.57%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.04 +.24%
Reformulated Gasoline 215.50 +1.53%
Natural Gas 7.81 -.80%
Heating Oil 187.28 +.90%
Gold 682.0 +.07%
Base Metals 273.57 -.02%
Copper 357.50 +1.39%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.73% +1 basis point
US Dollar 82.64 -.07%
CRB Index 316.58 +.04%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +.53%
Hospitals +.50%
Engineering & Construction +.33%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -1.41%
Homebuilders -1.61%
REITs -1.65%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (GS), (IFIN), (C), (LEH), (BK), (MEL), (STT), (NT), (ET), (SCHW) and (MER) Buy.
- Rated (PNC), (NCC), (USB), (KEY), (FITB) and (TCB).
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- NovaStar Financial(NFI), a subprime home lender, announced it’s formally exploring “a range of strategic alternatives,” including a possible sale. The shares are soaring 17% after-hours.
- Three former Duke Univ. lacrosse players were cleared of sexually assaulting a stripper, ending a racially charged case that North Carolina’s top lawman said was pushed along by an “unchecked” prosecutor.
- Comcast Corp.(CMCSA) agreed to buy online movie-ticket seller fandango.
- Genentech Inc.(DNA) said first-quarter profit rose 68%, driven by sales of its cancer drugs Avastin and Rituxin. The stock is slightly higher after-hours.
- Research In Motion’s(RIMM) fourth-quarter profit soared after the company introduced new BlackBerry e-mail devices and took customers from rivals. The company also said a SEC informal probe had been converted to formal. The shares fell 6.8% after-hours.
- General Motors(GM) has pulled its ads from radio host Don Imus’s morning show after his remarks about the Rutgers University women’s basketball team.
- US Democratic Senator Charles Schumer and other members of a key banking committee said the federal government should spend “hundreds of millions of dollars” to bail out subprime mortgage borrowers facing foreclosure.
- Kraft Foods(KFT) may generate as much as $2 billion in free cash flow a year that could be used to acquire companies, a Davenport analyst said.
- American Eagle Outfitters(AEO) said March same-store-sales soared 20.0% versus estimates of a 10.9% gain. The shares rose 4% after-hours.
- Advanced Magnetics(AMAG) reported positive results from two additional human studies of its intravenous iron replacement therapy. The shares surged 13% after-hours.
Nikkei English News:
- Sony Corp.(SNE) will become the first company to mass-produce organic electroluminescent televisions when it begins making them later this year. Sony will start making about 1,000 of the 11-inch panels a month as soon as this year. The televisions emit light when an electrical charge is passed through them, and are thinner, lighter and have a better picture quality than existing liquid-crystal displays.
AFP:
- The European Union will consider the creation of a “strategic reserve” of border guards to prevent the flow of illegal immigrants, citing EU parliament lawmaker Gerard Deprez.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Telecom longs and Computer longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, almost every sector declined and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were slightly above average into the close. Today's overall market action was bearish. I suspect today's weakness was more related to the continuing rise in gas prices rather than the FOMC comments, which were not unexpected. The 10-year yield and U.S. dollar had just slight reactions to the minutes. It looks like more near-term market choppiness is likely before what I suspect will be another push higher in the major averages.
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