Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Falling Oil, Short-Covering, Diminishing Credit Angst, Less Financial Sector Pessimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Gaming longs, Retail longs and Commodity shorts. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges, added to my (AAPL) long and covered some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is about average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling 2.86% and is still above-average at 22.39. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 151.0 and the total put/call is around average at .91. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day and is currently 1.22. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising .68% today to 83.56 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is -1.0% today at 137.0 basis points. The TED spread is falling 6.94% to 1.28. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, has dropped 24 basis points in 11 days to 2.40% on the fall in commodities. Considering the earnings disappointments yesterday after the close, today’s action is even more bullish. Financials continue to trade very well, notwithstanding recent gains, as evidenced by Wachovia’s(WB) 10% jump on its poor report. The (XLF) is 3.04% higher on the day. The (XLF) is up 23.7% in 7 days. Oil continues to trade poorly and now the US dollar appears to be beginning another surge. The Transport Index is soaring 3.3% on crude’s decline and is now back above its 50-day moving average. Moreover, the S&P Goldman Ag Spot Price Index is falling another 1.0% today and is now slightly below its 200-day moving-average. The last time this index broke down through this technical level in a convincing way was June 2004. I continue to see much more upside for the broad US stock market if in fact the commodity bubble is finally bursting. Apple(AAPL) is falling 5% today after investors were disappointed with its guidance. I suspect today will mark an excellent entry point for both short and long-term investors in the shares. I still see significant upside in Apple from current levels. Weekly retail sales rose 2.7% this week. This is the best level since September 2007, despite record gas prices and the diminishing effects of the stimulus checks. Retail sales should move back above long-term average levels over the intermediate-term as gas prices fall. Nikkei futures indicate an +100 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +50 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, diminishing credit market angst, short-covering, bargain-hunting and less financial sector pessimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The cost of protecting U.S. corporate bonds from default fell as crude oil prices dropped to a more than six-week low and Wachovia Corp. slashed its stock dividend and said it may sell assets to shore up capital. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, a benchmark gauge of credit risk tied to the bonds of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada, fell 3 basis points to 136.5 basis points as of 11:38 a.m. in New York, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group.
- Crude oil fell more than $4 a barrel, dropping to a six week low, on forecasts a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will miss oil fields and refineries and a .68% surge in the US dollar.
- Corn fell below $6 a bushel for the first time in seven weeks on speculation falling energy costs will diminish the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. ``Crude oil is driving speculators and investors to dump all commodity positions,'' said Chad Henderson, a market analyst for Prime Agricultural Consultants Inc. in Brookfield, Wisconsin. ``Grains are following crude oil.''
- Wachovia Corp.(WB) Chief Executive Officer Robert Steel plans to cut $2 billion of expenses by the end of next year and sell parts of the fourth-biggest U.S. bank after posting a record quarterly loss, slashing the dividend 87 percent and eliminating 6,350 jobs.
- United Airlines parent UAL Corp(UAUA) rose the most since leaving bankruptcy two years ago after saying it will cut 7,000 jobs and free up cash under a new credit-card agreement with JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM).
- Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's largest maker of luxury autos, plans to offer battery- powered Mini cars in the U.S. by mid-2009 to meet demand for fuel-efficient vehicles. ``There will be electric Minis driven by real customers a year from now,'' Jim McDowell, chief of the Mini brand in North America, said at an event today in Birmingham, Michigan.
- Caterpillar Inc.(CAT), the world's largest maker of earthmoving equipment, said second-quarter profit climbed 34 percent, exceeding analysts' estimates, on demand for backhoes and mining tools in China and the Middle East.
- General Electric Co.(GE), turning to sovereign wealth as it exits U.S. consumer financing, formed an $8 billion venture with Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Development Co. to profit from commercial investments in the Middle East and Africa. State-owned Mubadala also said it wants to become a top 10 holder in Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE, whose shares have lost about a quarter of their value since April 11.
- Quest Diagnostics(DGX) Inc., the largest U.S. provider of medical tests, rose the most in three months in New York trading after reporting second-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates.
- United Parcel Service Inc.(UPS), the world's largest package-delivery company, said second-quarter profit fell 21 percent as fuel costs rose and the cooling economy damped domestic shipments. Revenue rose 6.7 percent to $13 billion, Atlanta-based UPS said today in a statement. ``Although things remain very uncertain, the sky is not falling,'' said Dan Ortwerth, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis.
- The US dollar rose the most against the euro in more than two weeks as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson voiced support for the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president said interest rates should be raised.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Charles Plosser said the central bank should raise interest rates ``sooner rather than later'' to lower inflation and prevent price expectations from getting out of control.

Wall Street Journal:
- GM(GM) Teams With Dozens Of Utilities on Plug-In Cars. Collaboration Seeks To Smooth the Path For Electric Vehicles.
- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is moving forward with an investigation in which it has accused fallen hedge fund Amaranth Advisors of manipulating the natural-gas markets, the agency said Thursday.

NY Times:
- Videoconferencing Gains Favor as Travel Costs Rise.
- Product Placement Finds a New Home on TV News Set.

USA Today:
- Iraqi insurgents have nearly ceased their once constant attacks on US convoys, allowing shipments for reconstruction projects to reach their highest levels since the start of the war.

MacDailyNews:
- RUMOR: Apple’s(AAPL) secret product is ‘MacBook touch’.

La Stampa:
- Europe’s economic recovery may take longer than the ECB forecasts and could come after the fourth quarter, citing an interview with board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

Interfax:
- The pace of Russia’s economic growth could be slowed by high inflation, citing Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. Producer-price growth accelerated to 28.1% in June, a 3 ½ year high, the statistics service said yesterday. The annual inflation rate stood at 15.1% in June, the most since December 2002.

Estado de Sao Paulo:
- Republican presidential nominee John McCain said closer ties between the US and Brazil would offset the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. McCain said he would support Brazil’s entry into the Group of Eight and his proposed “League of Democracies.” He also vowed to cut subsidies to US sugar producers and lower tariffs on Brazilian ethanol if elected.

Arab Times:
- Kuwaiti lawmakers Mohammed al-Obaid urged the government to take serious measures to curb “alarming” price rises in food and other commodities.

Jordan Times:
- Jordan’s inflation rate for the year is unlikely to fall below 14%, citing a report by First Strategieh Consulting. Inflation will slow down the economy and negatively impact employment and standards of living, citing Tayseer Smadi, the report’s author. Jordanian inflation accelerated to an annual 16.6% in June as the prices of food, housing, clothing and services increased following the government’s lifting of fuel subsidies, according to the government’s Dept. of Statistics.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Mid-cap Growth -1.19%

Sector Underperformers:

Coal irlind (-7.59%), Semis (-4.50%) and Energy (-2.70%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

MICC, TXN, VOD, HES, TIE, GMXR, GDP, CSIQ, ARTC, SNDK, SIMO, NPBC, ALV, TLP, AMX and BSX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) SPF 2) LUV 3) NSM 4) ITMN 5) BTU

Home Prices Fall Less Than Expected

- The House Price Index for May fell .3% versus estimates of a .8% decline and a .8% decline in April.

BOTTOM LINE: US home prices fell a less-than-expected 4.8% in May from a year earlier, Bloomberg reported. The monthly house price index is down 4.9% from its peak in April 2007, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said. The West South Central region, which includes Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana saw prices rise .5%. The US median existing home price is still 52.0% higher over the last 8 years. Home prices are likely already near their bottom, but will remain in a range over the intermediate-term.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (+.02%)

Sector Outperformers:

HMOs (+9.27%), Airlines (+9.04%) and I-Banks (+2.71%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PAS, CNC, UNH, ICLR, BIIB, KO, PCAR, HMC, TXT, TLK, QLGC, WNR, HOC, VLTR, FDRY, OMCL, WGOV, RBCAA, AMLN, FWRD, PMTI, CHTT, LNCR, ALXN, SWSI, GENZ, TTES, GILD, PICO, RYAAY, PCAR, BXG, RGA, DGX, PSD, AXE, CSL and PKG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) TAP 2) BRCD 3) TXN 4) SPF 5) MPEL

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