Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Ford(F) Beats GM in U.S. Sales for First Time Since 1998. Ford Motor Co., buoyed by redesigned cars and a rebound in truck demand, posted a 43 percent jump in U.S. sales in February to beat General Motors Co. in monthly deliveries for the first time since 1998. Ford’s tally was 142,285 compared with 141,951 for GM, the automakers said today. The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker hadn’t topped GM in domestic sales since a strike idled the biggest U.S. automaker almost 12 years ago, and the last time before that was during a 1970 walkout, based on Ford data. “This is huge because it’s the classic rivalry like Pepsi and Coke, the Red Sox and the Yankees,” said John Wolkonowicz, an analyst at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “They’re doing it with the stuff that matters -- quality, products and reputation. It could be a turning point.” Ford exceeded analysts’ projections of a 33 percent advance, based on the average of 5 estimates, for a month in which snowstorms damped U.S. showroom traffic. Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally has been working to cut costs and develop new vehicles and kept Ford out of bankruptcy last year. Ford said sales of its Fusion more than doubled, vaulting past the Focus to claim the top spot among the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker’s cars, and Taurus sales almost doubled. Both sedans were redesigned in the past year. Pickup and sport-utility vehicle deliveries also rose.
  • Derivatives Reform Would Have Dissuaded Greece. Greece would have been dissuaded from using swaps to obscure the country’s deficit if the $605 trillion derivatives industry were properly regulated, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said. “Derivatives reform would have made it more difficult for Greece to hide their embedded loan,” Gensler said in a speech to be delivered today to Women in Housing and Finance, a Washington-based professional society. Derivatives rules proposed in the U.S. would have required Greece to post collateral against its derivatives transactions, “thus canceling out the embedded loan and discouraging the country from entering into such a transaction in the first place,” he said.
  • Pimco's Gross Raises Bet on Sovereign Debt With Abu Dhabi Swaps. Bill Gross, portfolio manager for the Pimco Total Return Fund, raised his bet on foreign- government bonds in the fourth quarter by entering into credit- default swaps on debt from Abu Dhabi and Brazil. Pimco Total Return, the world’s largest mutual fund with almost $210 billion in assets, sold swaps on Abu Dhabi bonds with a face value of $55 million, according to a portfolio report filed Feb. 26 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The tradable insurance contracts mature in December 2014, according to the filing by Pacific Investment Management Co. of Newport Beach, California. The fund had sold credit-default protection on about $472 million of Brazilian government debt as of Dec. 31, the filing shows. That compared with swaps written on $212 million of Brazilian sovereign debt as of Sept. 30, according to an earlier filing.
  • AIG(AIG) Top-Earning Executives May Get Salary Raises This Year. American International Group, the bailed-out insurer, may be allowed by the U.S. paymaster to boost salaries for some of its highest-compensated executives, two people with knowledge of the matter said. “Feinberg realizes that to retain talent, you can’t be as confining as they were last year,” said Jeanne Branthover, a managing director at Boyden Global Executive Search Ltd. in New York. “For AIG to be successful and pay back the government, it’s all about their people.” “AIG owes the taxpayer a huge amount of money and we want to make sure that my compensation practices take into account the need for AIG to thrive,” Feinberg said in a Dec. 11 interview with Bloomberg Television.
  • CF(CF) Bids $4.73 Billion for Terra(TRA) in Challenge to Yara. CF Industries Holdings Inc. offered to buy rival Terra Industries for $4.73 billion, challenging a bid from Yara International ASA and seeking to form the largest U.S. maker of nitrogen-based crop fertilizers. The proposal includes $37.15 in cash and 0.0953 of a CF share for each Terra share, CF said today in a statement. Based on yesterday’s closing prices, the offer is valued at $47.40 a share, representing a 15 percent premium to Terra’s share price.
  • Geithner, Summers Leading Search for Successor to Fed's Kohn. The search to fill vacancies at the Federal Reserve is being led by President Barack Obama's Treasury secretary and chief economic adviser, indicating Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will get support for his policies as he tries to sustain growth while withdrawing monetary stimulus.
  • Qualcomm(QCOM) Says Sales, Profit Will Be at High End of Forecasts.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Greece Set to Outline New Austerity Measures Wednesday. The Greek government is expected to outline Wednesday a new austerity package of about €4 billion ($5.42 billion) in an effort to cut its huge budget deficit by four percentage points this year, government officials said Tuesday. "The new package will most likely be announced on Wednesday. First there will be a cabinet meeting to seal the measures and an announcement will follow," one official said. Another official said Greece's debt management agency is preparing a 10-year bond hoping to raise between €3 billion and €5 billion, taking advantage of the expected positive market reaction after the measures are announced. Petros Christodoulou, head of Greece's debt management agency, said that Greece "does not have to access the market any time soon and this allows us to access it when conditions are favorable." But another senior government official said the bond issuance "will be within days of the announcement of the austerity package." "We need to go to the market very soon with the 10-year note because we risk ending up with no money." he said, adding that the bond "was originally planned for last week". Separately, Greece's civil servants union ADEDY said that it would stage a 24-hour strike on March 16 to protest against the new measures.
  • Democrats Press New York's Paterson to Resign. Democratic Party officials are putting pressure on New York Gov. David A. Paterson to resign from office as additional details emerge about his alleged effort to intervene in a domestic-violence case involving a senior aide. The state Democratic chairman, Jay Jacobs, headed to Albany Tuesday morning to meet with Mr. Paterson and encourage him to step aside, according to a source. Mr. Jacobs declined to comment, as did the Paterson administration. Mr. Paterson suspended his campaign for governor Friday but said he is determined to complete the remaining 10 months of his term. Democrats are urging him to transfer power to his lieutenant governor, Richard Ravitch, whom Mr. Paterson appointed last year.
  • Battle Brews Over Tactic to Win Passage of Health Bill. The White House said Monday the leading tactic to win passage of the health-care bill was nothing extraordinary, rehearsing a key argument in the final public-relations battle over the bill. For their part, Republicans accuse the Democratic majority of trying to ram through legislation using a parliamentary trick that Republicans say was never designed for such a big bill.
MarketWatch:
  • FSA Chair Contemplates CDS Restrictions. Adair Turner, chairman of the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority, said Tuesday that regulators need to consider restrictions on the use of credit-default swaps following the financial crisis.
CNBC:
NY Times:
  • Hedge Funds Heart Pfizer(PFE). It seems that some hedge funds are feeling the love for Pfizer. While Pfizer has seen its glory fade over the last decade, its $68 billion purchase of Wyeth last year gave the company a whole new range of biotechnology drugs and vaccines and has apparently won the admiration of some big-name hedge funds, Reuters reports.
NY Post:
  • Goldman(GS) Profits on Both AIG's(AIG) Collapse, Breakup. For Goldman Sachs, AIG -- and by extension, the American taxpayer -- is a gift that keeps on giving. A year and a half after Goldman pocketed billions of dollars that Uncle Sam funneled into American International Group when it was on the verge of collapse, Lloyd Blankfein's gold-plated investment bank is set to fetch as much as $100 million by selling off pieces of the insurance giant. Goldman is reaping fees from helping AIG unload billion of dollars worth of assets in an attempt to return the roughly $182 billion the insurer borrowed from average folk. Goldman played a key advisory role in the sale of AIG's Asian unit, American International Assurance, to the British firm Prudential for $35 billion, which was announced yesterday. The deal, which represents AIG's largest divestiture since it was bailed out, could result in a $25 million check for Goldman. Citigroup and Blackstone Group also advised AIG on the AIA sale. Sources told The Post that Goldman is also advising AIG, which is headed by CEO Robert Benmosche, on its planned sale of American Life Insurance to MetLife for about $15 billion. The sale may come as early as next week, and could net Goldman another $35 million to $50 million in fees, sources said. Benmosche retired as CEO of MetLife in 2006. Then there are fees that Goldman could collect from related transactions and other plum assignments it has been lobbying for at AIG that could earn the firm millions more.
  • Al's Latest Global-Warming Whopper.
The Business Insider:
Washington Post:
  • Reconciliation on Health Care Would Be an Assault to the Democratic Process by Orrin Hatch. America's Founders gave us a system of governance designed to limit government power and maximize liberty. The legislative branch is different from the executive, and the Senate is different from the House. No single branch has all the power. That can be frustrating for those with ambitious agendas, but everyone benefits by respecting those checks and balances even as we fight over policies. While the House is designed for action, the Senate is designed for deliberation. That is why Senate rules and procedures give a minority of senators the power to slow or even stop legislation. Both parties do it when in the minority, and both find it frustrating when they are in the majority. But such checks are central to the nature of the institution and to the Senate's place in our constitutional system. These rules temper majority power and generate strong incentives to develop mainstream legislation that commands broad, bipartisan support. To impose the will of some Democrats and to circumvent bipartisan opposition, President Obama seems to be encouraging Congress to use the "reconciliation" process, an arcane budget procedure, to ram through the Senate a multitrillion-dollar health-care bill that raises taxes, increases costs and cuts Medicare to fund a new entitlement we can't afford. This is attractive to proponents because it sharply limits debate and amendments to a mere 20 hours and would allow passage with only 51 votes (as opposed to the 60 needed to overcome a procedural hurdle). But the Constitution intends the opposite process, especially for a bill that would affect one-sixth of the American economy. This use of reconciliation to jam through this legislation, against the will of the American people, would be unprecedented in scope. And the havoc wrought would threaten our system of checks and balances, corrode the legislative process, degrade our system of government and damage the prospects of bipartisanship. Less than a year ago, the longest-serving member of the Senate, West Virginia Democrat Robert Byrd, said, "I was one of the authors of the legislation that created the budget 'reconciliation' process in 1974, and I am certain that putting health-care reform . . . legislation on a freight train through Congress is an outrage that must be resisted." Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, also a Democrat, said last March, "I don't believe reconciliation was ever intended for the purpose of writing this kind of substantive reform legislation." They are both right. Reconciliation was designed to balance the federal budget. Both parties have used the process, but only when the bills in question stuck close to dealing with the budget. In instances in which other substantive legislation was included, the legislation had significant bipartisan support.
Vanity Fair:
  • Larry Fink's $12 Trillion Shadow. Though few Americans know his name, Larry Fink may be the most powerful man in the post-bailout economy. His giant BlackRock(BLK) money-management firm controls or monitors more than $12 trillion worldwide—including the balance sheets of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the toxic A.I.G. and Bear Stearns assets taken over by the U.S. government last year. How did Fink rebound from a humiliating failure to become the financial fulcrum of Washington and Wall Street? Through a series of interviews, the author probes his role in the crisis, his unique risk-assessment system, and the growing concern he inspires.
Point Carbon:
  • Japan may delay measures to limit emissions as it consults with business lobbies, citing Environmental Minister Sakihito Ozawa.
Rasmussen:
  • Confidence In Economy's Future Is At Lowest Point of Obama's Presidency. Views of the country's short- and long-term economic future are gloomier these days than they have been at any time since President Obama took office in January of last year. Forty-two percent (42%) of American adults now expect the U.S. economy to be weaker in one year’s time, up three points from January and the highest level found in 14 months of regular tracking on the question, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Thirty-six percent (36%) believe the economy will be stronger in a year, down two points from last month. That’s the lowest level of confidence measured since tracking began in January 2009.
Politico:
  • Harold Ford: Democrats are 'Scared'. Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. said Tuesday that Democrats are “scared” heading into this fall’s election and that he decided not to run for the Senate from New York because he feared his party would lose the seat after a tough primary. “The fall is going to be a tough, tough fall for whatever Democrat emerges,” Ford said during an appearance on MSNBC's “Morning Joe,” his first announcing Monday night that he is not running. “It would have been a tough brutal fight.”
Reuters:
  • China Top 4 Banks Had 294 Bln Yuan in New Loans in February. China's four-biggest state-owned banks issued net new loans in February of about 294 billion yuan, down about 39% from January, citing banking sources.
  • U.S. Monitoring Banks' Sovereign Risk Exposures. "You can be sure that regulators are looking at this very closely," Dugan, whose agency regulates the largest U.S. banks, said in an interview with Reuters Insider."When there's any issue like this that is newly emergent and presents new kinds of risk, there are steps that we take to assess and monitor what is going on." Last week Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said U.S. regulators are probing how Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs (GS) helped Greece arrange derivatives deals that critics say were used to disguise the size of its budget deficits. Regarding regulatory reform, Dugan said that banks will likely change their business models to focus less on risky trading, even if Congress does not take up the so-called "Volcker rule" that would ban banks from proprietary trading and owning or sponsoring a hedge fund.
Telegraph:
Guardian:
  • Greece Puts Bond Sale on Hold. Greece has put its planned bond sale on hold amid expectations that further support from European countries will cut the premium investors demand to lend money to the troubled country. "Normally they would test the market but now nothing has been fed [into the market] it's all on hold," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer of London & Capital, a sovereign bond investor. Greek officials insist, however, that Greece does "not have to access the market any time soon". Petros Christodoulou, head of the country's public debt management office, told the Guardian: "This allows us to access it when conditions are favourable for the benefit of the Hellenic republic and our investors." Greece had planned to raise €5bn, as it needs to refinance €20bn before the end of May, but changed its mind after reports of German resistance to any potential bailout. The Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, is to meet Germany's Angela Merkel on Friday, hoping to gain more support from Europe's largest economy. "It's likely they will wait until after the Merkel meeting," said Elisabeth Afseth, a credit analyst at Evolution Securities. "It might be a bit suspicious if they came tomorrow saying they were raising money, just before a big announcement."
Kathimerini:
  • Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou will meet with a Standard & Poor's Ratings Services team today in Athens.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-Cap Value (+.59%)

Sector Underperformers:
Education (-.65%), Airlines (-.62%) and Retail (-.12%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
NTRI, SPLS, DDS, AIG, SYKE, UNFI, TECD, DEER, TSTC, FSYS, PUK, TRW, VCO, TNS, GEO and ABM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) TRA 2) FRE 3) KR 4) NTRI 5) XRX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Mid-Cap Growth (+.75%)

Sector Outperformers:
Coal (+3.04%), Banks (+1.48%) and Medical Equipment (+1.27%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
SQNM, DNDN, ROSE, QCOM, CRZO, BMO, WFC, SU, ARUN, BONT, BID, RDN, HIG, JAS, DBRN, RADS, PWRD, ROVI, PRSC, ITMN, ACXM, RICK, YUII, RINO, ASML, SNIC, CAAS, GMCR, ROSE, TLVT, DIOD, IBKC, HVT, TRA, CTB, DPZ, MDR, FDP, KFY and AZO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1)
CF 2) CMCSK 3) CCL 4) ANF 5) OC


Trading Links

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • EU Sets Clock Ticking on Greece as Merkel Talks Near. The European Union set the clock ticking on Greece’s attempts to cut the bloc’s largest budget deficit. As Prime Minister George Papaconstantinou prepares to meet Germany’s Angela Merkel on March 5, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said today Greece must reveal new measures “in the coming days” to allay officials’ concerns that the current austerity plan falls short. Merkel and other EU leaders want Greece to do more so they can justify any aid package to taxpayers and political opponents who say that the country shouldn’t be bailed out after living beyond its means. Failure to satisfy Rehn’s demand before the Berlin talks may dash hopes of a German-led lifeline, spurring investors to reverse today’s rally in Greek bonds. Papandreou will address his governing Pasok party tomorrow and the cabinet will meet on March 3 to discuss further “decisions on the economy,” an e-mail from the government said. Papandreou’s efforts to give the EU what it wants are being complicated by strikes, a deteriorating economic outlook and higher borrowing costs. Options include another increase in the fuel levy, raising sales tax and a luxury tax on cars and yachts. It could also raise duties on alcohol and tobacco products again and abolish the “14th wage”, a payment received twice a year that’s equivalent to one month’s wage. “It appears that the Greek government has reasonably broad support across the political spectrum and with the population as a whole,” Mackie said. “Too much pressure from the rest of the EU could change this and introduce a political crisis, the consequence of which would be hard to gauge.” The government has already raised the retirement age and frozen salary increases for public-sector workers.
  • Russia, Canada Keep Data, 'Climategate' School Says. Canada and Russia are among nations that won’t allow the U.K. university at the center of the “climategate” leaked-e-mail dispute to release their temperature data, researchers at the school said. Seven of 59 nations asked to allow the University of East Anglia to release weather station data have declined, according to testimony given to a U.K. parliamentary committee today by Phil Jones, director of the school’s Climatic Research Unit, and UEA Vice Chancellor Edward Acton. The data is of interest because it’s used by the school and the Met Office, the government’s forecaster to produce one of the three main global average temperature datasets used by the United Nations to show the Earth is warming. Skeptics of climate change have been pushing for the data to be published to allow them to reproduce the series themselves. “Several of these countries impose conditions saying ‘no, you can’t pass it on’,” Acton told the U.K. Parliament’s multi- party Science and Technology Committee in London today. “Canada and Poland are among those countries saying ‘no you can’t.’ Also Sweden. And Russia is reluctant.” Jones, the author of many of the leaked e-mails, stepped aside from his post in December, pending completion of an investigation. In one e-mail, he spoke of deleting files rather than handing data to skeptics.
  • American Funds Rank Highest for Wealth Creation, Janus Lowest. American Funds, the biggest active manager of stock and bond mutual funds, created the most wealth for investors in the past decade, while Janus Capital Group Inc. destroyed the most, Morningstar Inc. said today. American, owned by Los Angeles-based Capital Group Cos., added $191 billion in net wealth for clients from 2000 through 2009, according to a Morningstar study of the 50 largest U.S. asset managers. Denver’s Janus wiped out $58.4 billion, the Chicago-based research firm said.
  • Bristol-Myers(BMY) Transplant Drug Wins U.S. Panel Backing. Bristol Myers Squibb Co.’s experimental drug belatacept should be allowed on the market, a committee of U.S. regulatory advisers recommended. The outside panel voted 13-5 today that the Food and Drug Administration approve the drug for the prevention of kidney transplant rejection because the benefits of the medicine outweigh the risks when compared with the older generic drug cyclosporine.
  • SEC Should Adopt Wall Street-Like Bonus System, Markopolos Says. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission should emulate Wall Street’s “eat what you kill” ethos and pay investigators bonuses for uncovering frauds, Harry Markopolos said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. “You need to change the culture,” said Markopolos, the former money manager who tried for years to alert the agency to Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme. “Right now it’s a 40-hour work week. You need to put them on Wall Street’s compensation system. You need to pay them a higher base comp, and you need to incentivize them.”
  • Volcker Defends 'Volcker Rule," Optimistic on Chances. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, a top adviser to President Barack Obama, defended his proposal to restrict proprietary trading at U.S. banks, saying such financial institutions shouldn’t operate as they do now, according to the chief executive officer of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. “He made quite a convincing case that if there is no implication to the financial crisis, and in fact U.S. investment banks and commercial banks are able to continue as though nothing happened, then we’ve missed a terrible opportunity to fix a broken system,” said Jonathan Slone, chairman and CEO of CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. Obama’s plan to limit the size and trading activities of financial firms, known as the “Volcker Rule,” has been met with criticism from lawmakers and some in banking, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s(GS) E. Gerald Corrigan. The proposal would bar commercial banks from engaging in trading solely for their own profit and from sponsoring hedge funds or private-equity funds. “What he made very clear was that what he’s not looking to do is break up existing banks,” Slone said after Volcker spoke at the CLSA AsiaUSA Investor Forum. “What he’s looking to do is separate deposit-taking institutions from taking on risk that could create situations where the government is going to have to bail things out.” “He seemed optimistic that the ‘Volcker Rule’ was still very much in play,” said Slone, who appeared on stage with Volcker and chaired the session, which was not open to reporters.
  • Qualcomm(QCOM) Plans $3 Billion Buyback, Boosts Dividend.
  • Bank of America's(BAC) Moynihan Plans to Vote for Barney Frank in November. Bank of America Corp.(BAC) Chief Executive Officer Brian Moyihan said he plans to vote for U.S. Representative Barney Frank in November, praising the House Financial Services Committee chairman for balancing concerns of lenders and consumers. “He knows the issues that the industry is facing, he knows the issues consumers are facing and he has an amazing ability to see how those fit together,” Moynihan said in an interview yesterday on the New England Cable Network.
  • OSI(OSIP) Board Rejects Astellas's $3.5 Billion Hostile Bid. OSI Pharmaceuticals Inc. rejected a $52-a-share hostile takeover bid from Astellas Pharma Inc. as investors anticipated a higher offer and possible bidding war. OSI “is not interested in undertaking a sale” at that price, the Melville, New York-based company said yesterday in response to the $3.5 billion cash offer from Astellas, Japan’s second-largest drugmaker. If successful, the tender offer starting today would help Astellas gain treatments for cancer, a key growth area the Tokyo-based company has identified to cope with falling sales of its biggest drug Prograf. The takeover attempt follows Astellas’ failed $1.1 billion offer last year for CV Therapeutics Inc.(CVTX) and analysts say it may face a rival bid from Roche Holding AG, OSI’s partner for the Tarceva cancer drug.
  • British Pound Extends Drop Amid Political, Financial Concerns. The pound dropped for a sixth day versus the dollar amid concerns that political uncertainties will hamper efforts to reduce the U.K.’s debt. The British currency weakened against all 16 of its most- active counterparts after polls showed Britain may have its first minority government since 1974 and ahead of a report forecast to show that a recovery in consumer confidence stalled in February. “Concerns over politics and the debt situation in the U.K. are growing,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, manager of foreign- exchange margin trading at Ueda Harlow Ltd. in Tokyo. “If forthcoming data confirms the deterioration in sentiment, the pound may extend its decline.” The dollar rose for a second day against the yen after Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosse told the Wall Street Journal that the central bank should back away from its pledge to keep interest rates low for an “extended period.” “I don’t like that language,” Plosser said in an interview with the newspaper, referring to the “extended period” wording. “What is troubling about the words is that it ties our hands, or people believe that it ties our hands.”
  • Australia Raises Benchmark Interest Rate by Quarter Point to 4%.
  • GM to Recall 1.3 Million Cars to Fix Power Steering. General Motors Co. plans to recall 1.3 million Chevrolet and Pontiac vehicles in North America to fix power steering systems, after the U.S. started an investigation spurred by consumer complaints.
Wall Street Journal:
  • After Quake, Focus Turns to Reconstruction.
  • Q&A: Philly Fed's Plosser Takes On 'Extended Period' Language.
  • Regulators' Reforms' Fall Flat. The financial system is still broken. Too bad Washington is fixing the wrong things. Last week the Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled what appeared its strongest reforms yet: a rule limiting short-selling of stocks after they had already fallen 10% during the trading day. The rule was lauded as a triumph for SEC chief Mary Schapiro, who in passing it against the wishes of two Republican commissioners, said that falling stock prices, "accompanied by the fear of unconstrained short selling, can destabilize our markets and undermine investor confidence." On Wall Street, which fought against these and other reform measures, the rule was dismissed as comically ineffective, a kind of regulatory vaporware that would do little to stop stock declines. "It's crazy and bad," said one big market player. It also reminds just how fitful reform efforts have become nearly two years since the demise of Bear Stearns.
  • Bearish Bets on Greece: Short-Lived? The short bet against Greece might not be around for long. The increasing possibility that European nations will come to the rescue of Greece is upending what had been a highly successful trade—betting that Greece would struggle or be unable to pay off its debt. The two main winning bets were buying credit default swaps, which rise as the risk of default increases, and shorting Greek bonds, which fall in value when the borrower is in trouble. In both cases, investors made big profits in recent months. Now, with a bailout plan for Greece emerging, some investors are moving out of those now money-losing trades. A key factor hurting these trades is that if a plan goes through, there would be little doubt Greece could pay off the bonds it has issued that mature in April and May. "You've already had a scramble to close out the short positions," said Gary Jenkins, head of fixed-income research at Evolution Securities in London. European officials, meanwhile, have unnerved some investors in recent days with calls for tighter regulation of the sovereign credit-default-swap markets. German market regulator BaFin is preparing a report for Germany's Finance Ministry on speculation in Greek debt, an agency spokesman said Monday. BaFin analysts are searching public trading data for signs of speculation in the trading of Greek credit default swaps. "It is important to know if speculators are betting against Greek national debt," said BaFin spokesman Ben Fischer. Given the cross-border nature of such trading, many politicians believe any regulation would have to be global in scope to be effective. Germany has been pushing other major economic powers, including the U.S., to endorse a regulatory framework for sovereign CDS trading. Berlin already has the support of most European countries. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said in a Sunday radio interview that the derivatives should be "at least very rigorously regulated" or even "forbidden." The fear of regulatory intervention may also be sparking a decrease in the price of the credit insurance. Hedge funds might have bought protection against Greek default in what would be a short position. Now, to avoid detection by regulators, hedge funds are selling credit insurance to cancel out the short position, a London banker said. To be sure, a bailout of Greece could end up a short-term solution. Within months, the country could end up struggling to cover its maturing debt.
  • New Momentum for Iran Sanctions. The new head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran isn't cooperating with U.N. inspectors, and Russia appeared to move closer to supporting sanctions, adding momentum to efforts at the U.N. Security Council to pressure Tehran to rein in its nuclear program.
  • Deal Near on Banking Rules. Key senators were close to a deal on legislation to overhaul financial regulations, people familiar with the matter said, bringing the U.S. a step closer to sweeping changes to the way banks interact with consumers and the markets alike. Top senators from each party were near a breakthrough agreement to create a new consumer-protection division within the Federal Reserve. This has been a contentious point due to heavy criticism of the Fed's past handling of its consumer-protection powers. Senators Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and Bob Corker (R. Tenn.) were conferring with other members of their parties last night in an effort to sell that agreement to them, Senate aides said. The two senators have also reached a deal that would let the federal government break up large, failing financial companies.
  • Goldman(GS) Lists New 'Risk': Bad Press. Company Sees Negative Media Coverage as a Potential Threat to Its Business; Aggressive Responses. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added something new to the laundry list of financial risks it faces: unflattering attention. In its annual report, the New York company said "adverse publicity" could have "a negative impact on our reputation and on the morale and performance of our employees, which could adversely affect our businesses and results of operations." The unusual disclosure in a 12-page section of "risk factors" ranging from rocky financial markets to natural disasters is the latest sign of Goldman's whipping-boy status among rivals, lawmakers and angry Americans because of the firm's giant profits. "Goldman has become one giant pinata to whack," said Charles M. Elson, director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware, adding that he couldn't recall a previous instance where a company cited bad publicity as a risk to its business. "It's reflective of the rather bizarre political climate in which we operate."
BusinessWeek:
CNBC:
CNNMoney:
  • Al Gore Gets 10,387 More Apple(AAPL) Options. Al Gore took his lumps at Apple's (AAPL) shareholders meeting Thursday. Sitting in the front row with the other outside directors, he had to bite his tongue as two pro-environment proposals were voted down and a gadfly named Shelton Ehrlich took the mic to call him a "laughingstock." "The glaciers have not melted," Ehrlich said, referring to Gore's frequent warnings about the effects of global warming. "If his advice he gives to Apple is as faulty as his views on the environment then he doesn't need to be re-elected." (link) But Gore is amply rewarded for serving on Apple's board. Last year he received in cash and stock options the equivalent of $436,372. The 10,000 options he was granted in 2008 are now worth nearly $750,000. And according to an SEC filing published Friday, he has just received another 9,397 options — more than any other director — in addition to 990 restricted shares. Net value of last week's haul, including those restricted shares: more than $227,000 at Apple's closing price of $204.62.
NPR:
  • Warren Buffett: Health Care Bill Needs Redo Focused On Costs. Warren Buffet, the oracle of Omaha, suggested President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats go back to the drawing board on health-care overhaul legislation and work with Republicans to come up with new legislation that deals with the "cost, cost, cost," that he calls a "tapeworm eating at American competitiveness." In comments made during a lengthy CNBC appearance where he talked about the economy and financial markets, he criticized the Democratic legislation as not doing enough to slow the cost increases that are making health care an ever larger share of the U.S. economy and making American companies less competitive globally. While he didn't say the Democrats should "scrap" the bill in response to a question to that effect from interviewer Becky Quick, he clearly suggested as much. Buffet's comments are likely to draw wide notice since Obama was fond of dropping the mega-billionaire's name as one of his informal advisers earlier in his presidency. Buffet's position certainly doesn't help the president as he tries to push his plan through Congress in coming weeks. Meanwhile, Republicans wasted little time seizing on Buffet's comments. House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner's office posted the clip of Buffet on CNBC along with a transcript to its website and e-mailed it far and wide. Here's the transcript:

Politico:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
  • Climate Expert Admits 'Awful E-Mails'. The scientist at the centre of the “climategate” scandal has made his strongest admission yet of errors in sending e-mails that were subsequently seized on as evidence of malpractice. “I have obviously written some very awful e-mails,” Phil Jones, director of the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia, told a parliamentary select committee on Monday. Prof Jones was the author of hundreds of the e-mails hacked from UEA servers last November, some of which show him and some other scientists refusing to release information and apparently manipulating data. The furore surrounding the e-mails has been heightened by a scandal involving the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change. It said earlier this year that the IPCC erroneously stated in its landmark 2007 report that Himalayan glaciers were likely to melt by 2035. Sceptics cite the two incidents as evidence of a lack of credibility of climate science.
  • Lack of Fiscal Credibility Hurts Sterling. Sterling has been weak and jittery recently, falling below $1.50 yesterday. Even with the euro weakening amid the sovereign debt tsunami about to engulf Greece - barring a rescue - the pound has dropped against the single currency. There are good reasons for the weakness and volatility of sterling. Among industrial countries, Britain's economic fundamentals are uniquely awful. As regards public debt and deficits, Britain's true fiscal circumstances are about as bad as Greece's reported situation, once we allow for the understatement of UK public debt through the off-balance-sheet accounting tricks of the past decade (the private finance initiative, unfunded pensions, student loans and other Enron-like constructs). The fiscal weakness of the UK is largely government-inflicted, rather than a result of the financial crisis and global contraction. During the long boom preceding the crisis, fiscal policy was relentlessly pro-cyclical, with public spending rising steadily as a share of gross domestic product. The size of the bank bail-out reflected failures of UK regulation that permitted the financial system's balance sheet to pass 400 per cent of GDP.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • Chinese provincial governments may be allowed to sell bonds as concerns mount about local fundraising through existing vehicles. The State Council is drafting rules for local-government debt and financing. While local-government financing "platforms" have been important in boosting domestic demand, problems include the excessively rapid growth of debt, rising repayment risks and irregular financing, the newspaper reported.
China Daily:
  • Urban-Rural Income Gap Widest Since Opening Up. BEIJING: China recorded its widest rural-urban income gap last year since the country launched its reform and opening-up policy in 1978. Think tank researchers warned the gap will continue to widen in the coming years if effective measures to narrow the difference are not implemented soon. The urban per capita net income stood at 17,175 yuan ($2,525) last year, in contrast to 5,153 yuan in the countryside, with the urban-to-rural income ratio being 3.33:1, according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.
EastDay.com:
  • New Home Sales in Shanghai Dive 54%. New home sales in Shanghai plunged more than 50 percent in February, its second consecutive month of decline, as sluggish sentiment continued to prevail among buyers while average prices remained almost flat despite record low transaction volume. Sales of new homes, excluding those designated for relocated residents under urban redevelopment plans, plunged 54 percent last month from January to 320,000 square meters, the lowest monthly volume registered by Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co since it began to track the local market in 2005. The February drop followed a monthly tumble of 51 percent in January when about 700,000 square meters of new homes were sold across the city. "Policies implemented by the government to curb speculation in the overheated real estate market, traditional slack momentum during the Spring Festival as well as growing wait-and-see sentiment among buyers dragged the city's monthly volume to a record low although they didn't impact the housing prices," said Lu Qilin, a researcher at Uwin.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (NGLS), target raised to $31.50.
Raymond James:
  • Upgraded (APSG) to Outperform, target $23.50.
  • Upgraded (BXS) to Outperform, target $23.
  • Upgraded (BRY) to Outperform, target $37.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%
Morning Preview
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (TECD)/1.00
  • (AZO)/2.35
  • (CPRT)/.40
  • (HOV)/-.28
  • (KCP)/.21
  • (DPZ)/.25
  • (SPLS)/.38
  • (PAY)/.23
Economic Releases
5:00 pm EST
  • Total vehicle sales for February are estimated to fall to 10.4M versus 10.82M in January.
Upcoming Splits
  • (ARO) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, weekly retail sales reports, BoC rate decision, API energy inventory report, RBC Healthcare Conference, ABC consumer confidence reading, (A) annual meeting, (CHS) analyst day, (EEP) analyst meeting, (SD) analyst meeting, (APC) investor conference, (BP) conference call, (TSCO) investment meeting, (WBSN) analyst breifing, BMO Metals & Mining Conference, Citi Property Conference and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Telecom/Media Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.