Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Greek President Told Banks Anxious as Deposits Pulled. Greek President Karolos Papoulias was told by the central bank chief this week that financial institutions are becoming anxious about their prospects as Greeks pull out cash after the inconclusive May 6 elections. Central bank head George Provopoulos told Papoulias that Greeks have withdrawn as much as 700 million euros ($891 million) and the situation could worsen, according to the transcript of the president’s meeting with party leaders on May 14 that was published yesterday. “Provopoulos told me that of course there’s no panic but there’s great fear which can evolve into panic,” he said. Greece’s future in the euro has been thrown into doubt by the political standoff, forcing the president to call for new elections yesterday. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the next vote a referendum on whether Greece exits the euro, a move that would leave lenders to its government, businesses and households unsure of recouping their money. The risk of a run on Greek banks is “a very serious problem,” Yannis Ioannides, professor of economics at Tufts University in Massachusetts, told Bloomberg Television. He said the European Central Bank needs to guarantee deposits held by the region’s lenders to guard against contagion. “That’s the only way to kill a bank run: not words but deeds.”
• Europe Must Face Ugly Reality of Greek Exit from Euro. A Greek exit from the euro area has the potential to be the European Union’s most economically and politically destructive event of a generation. Unfortunately, Europe has reached the point where it must prepare for such an outcome. Whether Greeks want it or not, circumstances could soon force their country to return to the drachma. Europe’s leaders, as Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker hinted, might extend Greece’s deadlines to meet the budget targets required for rescue money, but they won’t provide emergency financing to a government that refuses austerity measures. Without Europe’s help, Greece’s government (whoever ends up leading it) faces a dilemma: Cut spending even more than under the austerity program, or default on its debts and print a new currency to pay its bills.
  
• Germany Demands That ECB Pays Back EFSF Guarantee, FTD Reports. Germany and the European Financial Stability Facility has demanded that the European Central Bank pay back a 35 billion-euro ($45 billion) guarantee to the EFSF, Financial Times Deutschland said in a preview of a story that will run tomorrow, without saying where it got the information. The ECB received the guarantee from the EFSF to cover risks during the Greek government debt swap in March and wants to keep it for as long as 10 months because of outstanding so-called selective default bonds, the newspaper reported.
• Brazil Builders Plunge as PDG Profit Tumble Deepens Slump. MRV Engenharia (MRVE3) & Participacoes and PDG Realty (PDGR3) SA Empreendimentos & Participacoes led a plunge among Brazilian real-estate companies after reporting first-quarter profit that fell more than forecast. MRV lost 15 percent to 9.43 reais at the close in Sao Paulo, the biggest decline on the BM&FBovespa Real Estate Index, which retreated 4 percent. PDG, the country’s largest homebuilder by sales, fell 9.8 percent to 3.67 reais, making it the worst performer this year on the benchmark Bovespa index. PDG and MRV joined Rossi Residencial SA (RSID3), Brookfield Incorporacoes SA (BISA3) and Gafisa SA (GFSA3) in reporting lower profit or net losses last quarter. Homebuilders overextended themselves after 7.5 percent economic growth in 2010 spurred construction, creating a property glut as expansion slowed, said Luiz Roberto Calado, a vice president at the Brazilian Finance Managers Association. “They basically overestimated demand,” Calado, who published a book in 2010 on Brazilian real estate, said by phone from Sao Paulo. “They started buying land and creating lots of projects, but family income just hasn’t risen as much as housing prices. Even with credit, houses and apartments don’t seem affordable anymore.”
• Goldman(GS), Merrill E-Mails Show Naked Shorting, Filing Says. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Merrill Lynch & Co. employees discussed helping naked short-sales by market-maker clients in e-mails the banks sought to keep secret, including one in which a Merrill official told another to ignore compliance rules, Overstock.com Inc. (OSTK) said in a court filing. The online retailer accused Merrill, now part of Bank of America Corp., and Goldman Sachs of manipulating its stock from 2005 to 2007, causing its shares to fall. Clearing operations at the banks intentionally failed to locate and deliver borrowed shares for clients shorting stocks, including two traders who were fined and suspended from the industry, Overstock’s attorneys said in court filings earlier this year.
• JC Penney(JCP) Reports First-Quarter Loss Amid Sales Slump. J.C. Penney Co. (JCP), the department-store chain led by Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) former stores chief, reported a first- quarter loss and said it will discontinue its quarterly dividend after sales fell more than anticipated. The shares declined. The loss of $163 million, or 75 cents a share, compared with profit of $64 million, or 28 cents, a year earlier, the Plano, Texas-based company said today in a statement. Sales slumped 20 percent to $3.15 billion, missing the $3.43 billion average of 16 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The shares fell 13 percent to $29 at 5:53 p.m. in New York. At the close, J.C. Penney had dropped 5.2 percent this year.
• Romney Focuses on U.S. Debt in Attacking Obama for Slow Recovery. Mitt Romney decried the ballooning of the federal debt and said it “threatens what it means to be an American,” as he argued that government deficits are hurting the nation’s economic recovery and President Barack Obama has made the situation worse. “America counted on President Obama to rescue the economy, tame the deficit and help create jobs,” the presumed Republican presidential nominee told supporters today in Des Moines, Iowa. Criticizing the $831 billion stimulus package enacted shortly into Obama’s term and other administration actions, Romney said the president “bailed out the public sector, gave billions of your dollars to companies of his friends and added almost as much debt to the country as all the prior presidents combined.” As a consequence, “we are now enduring the most tepid recovery in modern history,” Romney said.
• China Power Output Shows Deeper Economic Slump: Chart of the Day. China's economic slowdown may be worse than forecast as growth in electricity generation, a leading indicator of gdp, was almost non-existent last month. Power generation rose .7% in April from a year earlier, down from 7.2% in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website. Industrial production in the world's second-largest economy, which accounts for more than 70% of electricity use, rose at the slowest pace in about three years last month. "Power production is one of the coincident indicators of the economy," said Michael Parker, an analyst in Hong Kong at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. "To see the number so sharply down, I think the problem of macro issues comes into question."
• JPMorgan’s Specific Trades Weren’t Monitored, Regulator Says. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s individual trades that led to a $2 billion loss weren’t monitored by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which said it didn’t expect to be notified about the positions. The job of the OCC, which oversees U.S. national banks including JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., is to oversee wider risk- management policies and limits and to alert company management when it sees activities that range far from expectations, said Bryan Hubbard, an OCC spokesman.
• China's Hong Kong Home-Buying Influx Wanes, Midland Says. Mainland Chinese investors accounted for a smaller percentage of Hong Kong’s new home sales for a second quarter as the country’s economy slowed and local buyers returned to the market, according to Midland Holdings Ltd. (1200) Mainland purchasers made up 36.8 percent of all new home sales by value in the first quarter, from 37.9 percent in the previous three months, Hong Kong’s biggest publicly traded realtor said in an e-mail yesterday. The figure reached 53.9 percent in the third quarter last year, Midland said.

Wall Street Journal:

• More Real-Estate Loans Default in Europe. European commercial-real-estate markets are struggling with a sharp increase in problem mortgages just as more European countries slip back into recession. A growing number of landlords, hit with falling rents and occupancies, are defaulting on loans, and it is happening not just in the most-troubled parts of Europe but in big centers like London and Frankfurt. Values already are down nearly 20% since their 2007 peak across Europe, according to CBRE Group Inc. Meantime, billions of euros of commercial mortgages are coming due, but little capital is available for refinancing.
• China Big Four Banks Barely Issue New Yuan Loans In 1H May - Report. China's biggest four banks barely issued any new yuan loans in the first two weeks of May, extending the country's weak credit growth last month, the state-run Shanghai Securities News reported Wednesday, citing an unnamed source. The four banks--Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. 1398.HK -2.08% (601398.SH), China Construction Bank Corp. 0939.HK -2.20% (601939.SH), Bank of China Ltd. 3988.HK -2.35% (601988.SH) and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. 1288.HK -0.60% (601288.SH)--usually account for 30% of new yuan loans issued by China's whole banking system. The rare and unusually dismal performance by the banks is expected to fuel concerns that despite Beijing's efforts to step up credit easing, corporate demand for loans remains too weak to reverse the trend.
• Regulator Laments Role of Largest Mortgage Lenders. The U.S. mortgage industry has become too concentrated in the hands of a few large players, a leading housing regulator said Tuesday, expressing a concern many small lenders are voicing as regulators consider how to overhaul the nation’s mortgage system.
• JPMorgan's(JPM) $2 Billion-Plus Loss Came On Three-Legged Trade. The complex web of trades that saddled J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) with at least $2 billion in losses had three key components, according to people familiar with the bank's strategy. Now, rival traders, seeking to reap gains from J.P. Morgan's losses, are scurrying to guess which parts the bank is unwinding, and how.
• Loeb's Third Point Reveals Apple(AAPL), Google(GOOG), Cisco(CSCO) Stakes. Third Point LLC, the hedge fund that recently won a proxy battle for further control of embattled Internet firm Yahoo Inc., has turned its attention to other large tech firms recently.
• Tom Frost: The Big Danger With Big Banks. Taxpayer safety nets such as the FDIC should be available only to banks that are in the loan business, not those in the investment business.

Barron's:

• Yahoo!(YHOO): Einhorn Dumps It, Stands Pat on (AAPL); Trims (DELL), (MSFT).

MarketWatch:

• Asia Stocks Dive as Greek Political Crisis Deepens. Asia’s stock markets fell sharply Wednesday, with commodity firms among those hardest hit after news that Greece’s political impasse would force new elections in the country. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was among the region’s worst performers Wednesday, tumbling 2.4%, with Sullivan citing the Hong Kong market’s relatively high liquidity. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 wasn’t far behind with a 1.8% drop, as weak commodity prices sent major mining names lower.
• Filings Show 45% of China Companies See Slowdown.
  

Business Insider:

• Elizabeth Warren Is Getting Destroyed More For Calling Herself A Native American.
• 3 Reasons Why You Should Expect France's Wealthy Elite To Move To London.
• Attention Facebook(FB) Investors: This (GM) Ad Cancellation Is Big, Bad News.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Of Whitney Tilson's $345MM In AUM, $104MM Is In Call Options, $24MM Is In Warrants.
• Majority of Neo-Normal Greek Cops Vote Neo-Nazi. In a somewhat stunning revelation, especially after our earlier note on the Golden Dawn leader's 'position' on the issues of the day, GreekReporter notes via the news paper To Vima, that more than half of all police officers in Greece voted for pro-Nazi party Golden Dawn in the elections of May 6th. It's not really for us to judge (well maybe it is) but when some polling stations report Golden Dawn receiving 19-24% of the votes, things are going from the dismal to the horrific (and potentially chaotic) very fast.
• Market Deja Deja Deja... Oh Forget It! (graphs)
  

CNBC:

• Facebook(FB) to Increase IPO Deal Size by 25%: Source.
• High-Speed Trading: Profit - and Danger - in Milliseconds.

IBD:

• Ulta Beauty(ULTA) Wows Customers With Trendy New Brands.
  

NY Times:

• Needy States Use Housing Aid Cash to Plug Budgets. Hundreds of millions of dollars meant to provide a little relief to the nation’s struggling homeowners is being diverted to plug state budget gaps.

Forbes

• Activist Ackman's Pershing Square Still Betting On JC Penney(JCP), Canadian Pacific(CP).

CNN:

• Obama Lists Millions in Assets in 2011. The White House released documents Tuesday that show President Barack Obama and the first family hold assets valued at between $2.6 million and $8.3 million. The disclosure forms, required by the Ethics in Government Act, show the president's largest asset, by far, is U.S. debt in the form of Treasury notes and bills. In total, the president has between $1.6 million and $6.3 million invested in Treasury debt.

USA Today:

• U.S. Energy Independence Is No Longer Just A Pipe Dream.

Reuters:

• Chicago braces for violence at NATO summit. Chicago police, who have a reputation for dealing toughly with protesters, will be prepared for the worst with new riot gear, including "sound cannon", if demonstrators at the NATO summit get out of line this weekend. America's third-largest city and President Barack Obama's hometown has never hosted anything like the meeting starting on Sunday, which will draw representatives from some 50 countries, including leaders of the 28 members of the military alliance.
• PIMCO: Euro zone to 'evolve into smaller' entity. Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world's largest bond fund, sees a high probability that the euro zone "will evolve into a smaller and less imperfect entity." "Simply put, the status quo is no longer an option for Europe over the three- to five-year horizon," PIMCO Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian wrote in a report outlining the Newport Beach, California-based company's medium-term economic outlook. "The higher probability outcome is that the eurozone will evolve into a smaller and less imperfect entity - namely, a closer political union of countries with more similar conditions."
• Sina Corp(SINA) Could See Further Losses Due to Weibo - CEO. Sina Corp could post further losses due to its investment in microblogging platform, Weibo, its Chief Executive Officer Charles Chao said on Wednesday. Sina Corp reported quarterly results that beat Wall Street's targets after advertising revenue shot up 9 percent despite a weak Chinese market, propelling its shares up 7 percent in after hours.

Financial Times:

• Bankers' Talks On Curbing Rating Agencies. Up to 20 of Europe’s top banks will on Wednesday discuss a plan to foil the dominance of the much criticised big three credit agencies at a private meeting of finance directors in Frankfurt. Some of the banks want to change the culture of information disclosure to the likes of Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch to level the playing field for potential new entrants.
• JPMorgan(JPM) loss exposes derivatives dangers. As JPMorgan reels from a complicated hedging strategy, one that misfired to the tune of at least $2.3bn in losses, derivatives-market participants worried about new rules on trading fear it will be harder to argue for more lenient treatment.
• US Bank CDS Hit Fresh 2012 Highs. Credit default swaps on major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, hit fresh highs for the year on Tuesday as problems in Greece intensified. The cost of default protection on JPMorgan debt rose 8 basis points to 147, the highest level this year.

Telegraph:

• Italy's Banks Shaken as Economic Slump Deepens. As Greece erupts, Italy is moving into the eye of the storm. Its economy is contracting at speeds not seen since the depths of the slump in 2009 as draconian austerity bites, greatly increasing the risk of social revolt and a banking crisis. With the world's third largest debt after the US and Japan at €1.9 trillion (£1.18 trillion), it is big enough to bring the global financial system to its knees. It is also in the front line of contagion as the Greek crisis metastasizes. Yields on 10-year Italian debt jumped 16 points to 5.86pc on Tuesday after Italy's data agency said the country is sliding even into deeper recession, with GDP shrinking 0.8pc in the first quarter. Output is now 6pc below its peak in 2008. Italy has been trapped in perma-slump for a decade, the only major state to suffer a fall in real per capita income since 2000. Rising anger has led to a spate of violent attacks by terrorist groups over recent weeks, all too like the traumatic 'years of lead' in the late 1970s. The government is mulling use of troops to protect targets after anarchists shot the head of Ansaldo Nucleare last week and hurled petrol bombs at tax offices.
• Global Lenders Face 'Killer Losses' on Greek Debt. Foreign holders of €422bn of Greek debt were warned to brace themselves for "killer losses" as coalition talks in Athens collapsed, threatening Greece's future in the eurozone.

The Australian:

• IMF Jets In For Stress Tests On Australia's Big Four Banks. THE big four banks face increasing scrutiny from both the International Monetary Fund and the credit rating agencies as Europe's financial problems drive up offshore funding costs, just as domestic growth stutters. IMF officials arrived in Sydney this week for meetings with ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -2.50% to -1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 192.5 +2.5 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 149.50 -1.0 basis point.
  
• FTSE-100 futures -.75%.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (TGT)/1.00
• (DE)/2.53
• (SPLS)/.30
• (ANF)/.01
• (LTD)/.40
• (JACK)/.31
• (RRGB)/.66
• (CHS)/.30

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for April are estimated to rise to 685K versus 654K in March.
• Building Permits for April are estimated to fall to 730K versus 747K in March.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus unch. in March.
• Capacity Utilization for April is estimated to rise to 79.0% versus 78.6% in March.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,750,000 barrels versus a +3,652,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +150,000 barrels versus a -3,251,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by -100,000 barrels versus a -2,613,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain the prior week.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Minutes of FOMC Meeting
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The France/Germany Bond/Bund Auctions, Fed's Bullard speaking, 1Q Mortgage Delinquencies, 1Q MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (NCR) investor day could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Rising Global Growth Fears, Less Financial Sector Optimism, Technical Selling

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Mixed
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 21.63 -1.10%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +24.68%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.12 -10.40%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.57 +18.64%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 116.95 +1.86%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 288.29 +2.79%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 298.42 +1.64%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 301.63 +4.72%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 38.5 +.5 basis point
  
• TED Spread 38.0 unch.
  
• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.50 -1.5 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 149.0 -3 basis points
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.90/Metric Tonne -.59%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.0 +.4 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 +1 basis point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating a -40 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
  

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech/Retail sector longs and index hedges
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish as the S&P 500 reverses morning gains and trades near session lows as it tests its early-March lows on rising Eurozone debt angst, high energy prices, rising global growth fears, technical selling and more shorting. On the positive side, Internet, Oil Tanker and Road & Rail shares are rising on the day. The Transports have outperformed throughout the day. Oil is falling -.93% and Gold is down -.8%. Weekly retail sales rose +3.1% this week versus a +2.6% gain the prior week, but they remain sluggish for a recovery. On the negative side, Coal, Energy, Alt Energy, Ag, Semi, Drug, Oil Service, Steel, Construction and Airline shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -1.25%. Cyclical shares are underperforming. Copper is down -1.6% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is gaining +1.1%. Major Asian indices were mostly lower, led down by a -.81% decline in Japan. Major European indices are falling around -1.5%, led lower by a -2.6% decline in Italy. Italy is now down -11.8% ytd and down -22.2% in less than 2 months. As well, Spain is down another -1.6% today. Spain's IBEX is down -21.8% ytd and took out its March 2009 low today. The Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services Index is down -2.0% today and down -22.0% in less than 2 months. The Germany sovereign cds is gaining +1.77% to 95.50 bps, the France sovereign cds is rising .62% to 216.17 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is rising +1.81% to 545.34 bps(all-time high), the Italy sovereign cds is rising +3.78% to 502.66 bps, the Ireland sovereign cds is gaining +4.0% to 655.17 bps, the Brazil sovereign cds is surging +2.4% to 144.01 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is gaining 3.8% to 234.14 bps and the China sovereign cds is gaining +6.4% to 129.83 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is rising +3.3% to 174.32 bps and the Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread is gaining +3.6% to 439.43 bps. US Rail Traffic continues to soften. The Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index continues to trend lower from its late-December peak. Moreover, the Citi US Economic Surprise Index has fallen back to early-Oct. levels. Lumber is -3.0% since its Dec. 29th high despite improving sentiment towards homebuilders and the broad equity rally ytd. Moreover, the weekly MBA Home Purchase Applications Index has been around the same level since May 2010 despite expectations for a strong spring home selling season. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged around -50.0% from its Oct. 14th high and is now down around -30.0% ytd. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -25.0% since Sept. 7th of last year. Shanghai Copper Inventories have risen +488.0% ytd. The recent intensification of the downturn in Eurozone economies raises the odds of further sovereign/bank downgrades. Overall, recent credit gauge deterioration is a big worry with most key sovereign cds breaking out technically. I still believe the level of complacency among US investors regarding the rapidly deteriorating situation in Europe is fairly high. Moreover, the 10Y T-Note continues to trade too well, with the yield only 10 bps from its record low of 1.67%. Copper continues to trade poorly and is breaking down from the range it has been trapped in since Jan. The CRB Commodities Index is now technically in a bear market, having declined -21.5% since May 2nd of last year. Moreover, the euro currency continues to trade poorly and is accelerating its move towards its Jan. low. I do not expect this low to hold over the coming months. It is looking increasingly likely that another intense escalation phase of the European debt crisis has already begun. I currently do not hear any “solutions” to the crisis that will prove anything other than very painful for the region’s economies and thus the global economy over the intermediate-term. While news out of the Eurozone was the main catalyst for today's stock reversal lower, I suspect that recent data out of China played a larger role than perceived. For the recent equity advance to regain traction, I would expect to see further European credit gauge improvement, a further subsiding of hard-landing fears in key emerging markets, a rising 10-year yield, better volume, stable-to-lower energy prices, a US "fiscal cliff" solution and higher-quality stock market leadership. I expect US stocks to trade modestly lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth fears, more shorting, technical selling and less financial sector optimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greek Vote Escalates Crisis as Schaeuble Raises Euro-Exit. Greece’s decision to return to the ballot box in the search for a government unleashed a hazardous new phase in Europe’s debt crisis, with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble calling the vote a referendum on whether the country stays in the euro. Post-election attempts to form a ruling coalition in Athens broke down today after nine days, sending Greeks back to the polls next month with surveys giving the lead to an anti-bailout party that would tear up the conditions attached to 240 billion euros ($307 billion) of aid. “If Greece -- and this is the will of the great majority - - wants to stay in the euro, then they have to accept the conditions,” Schaeuble told reporters at a meeting of European finance ministers in Brussels. “Otherwise it isn’t possible. No responsible candidate can hide that from the electorate.” The euro tumbled to a four-month low, European stocks dropped and investors sought the safety of German bonds amid speculation that Greece would be forced out and pull other countries with it, doing untold damage to the European financial system. The Greek quagmire raised the tension for a meeting in Berlin tonight between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the dominant figure in euro crisis management, and Francois Hollande, who took office as French president today in the first power shift to the Socialists in France since 1981.
• Schaeuble Says Greek Program Unnegotiable, Help Possible. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the adjustment program set up to stabilize Greece’s debt isn’t debatable and is not being negotiated though bilateral measures can be taken to help the country. Euro-region finance ministers meeting in Brussels yesterday didn’t discuss whether the program’s “architecture” can be changed, Schaeuble told reporters after European Union finance ministers met today. “The fundamental question the second program for Greece is about -- namely to spare Greece’s financial system, as a part of the common European monetary union, access to financial markets for some time and at the same time help it to return to financial markets at some point in time on the basis of sustainable growth -- is agreed and not negotiable in its economic parts, and isn’t being negotiated,” he said. “If we can help with additional, bilateral measures, that’s an entirely different question.”
• European Stocks Retreat as Greece Will Hold New Election. European stocks dropped for a second day, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to its lowest level since December, as Greece called a new election after the country’s politicians failed to form a government. Banks (SXXP) posted the biggest contribution to the Stoxx 600’s decline. Julius Baer Group Ltd. (BAER) plunged 6.1 percent, its biggest slide in almost eight months, as revenue from assets under management fell in the first four months of the year. The Stoxx 600 retreated 0.7 percent to 245.76 at the close in London, extending its drop from this year’s peak on March 16 to 9.8 percent.
• Sovereign, Corporate Bond Risk Rises, Credit-Default Swaps Show. The cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and corporate debt rose, reversing an earlier decline, according to BNP Paribas SA. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments climbed 3.5 basis points to 296.5 at 3:39 p.m. in London. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings jumped 14.5 basis points to 730.5. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose 3.5 to 172.5. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers was up seven basis points at 287.5 and the subordinated index was 9.5 higher at 473.5.
• Hungary Default Swaps Gain for 8th Day as Greece Calls Elections. Hungary’s cost of insuring against default on government debt gained for an eighth day and the forint dropped as Greece headed for new elections, raising concern that Europe’s debt crisis will escalate. The country’s five-year credit-default swaps rose 3 basis points to 553 basis points by 5 p.m. in Budapest, the longest rising streak since November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency of Hungary, the European Union’s most indebted eastern member, retreated 0.4 percent to 293.4 per euro. That means a 1.5 percent loss in the past three days, the most in a similar period since March 29. Hungary’s benchmark 10-year bonds dropped, lifting yields 4 basis points to 8.34 percent, the highest since April 24.
• Spanish Bond Slump Risks LCH Margin Increase: Chart of the Day. Spanish government bonds risk incurring higher trading costs at LCH Clearnet Ltd. as their performance relative to Europe's safest assets deteriorates. The difference in yield between Spanish 10-year bonds and a benchmark of AAA rated euro-region sovereign debt is approaching 450 bps for the first time since the shared currency was created. LCH, Europe's biggest clearing house, increased the cost of trading Irish and Portuguese bonds by 15% when yield spreads for those securities climbed to similar levels.
• EU Ministers Reach Deal To Boost Bank Capital. European Union finance ministers agreed on a plan to force banks to hold more capital in a deal that gives the U.K. full powers to implement its so-called Vickers banking agenda. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said at a meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels he won assurances from other nations that the U.K. will be able to follow through on its banking agenda, which will force large retail banks to hold more capital than the minimum international standards. That broke a deadlock reached two weeks ago, when 16 hours of talks left ministers divided on whether countries would need to seek permission when imposing extra loss buffers.
• U.S. Retail Sales Cool After Warm-Weather Spree: Economy. Retail sales rose in April at the slowest pace of the year as Americans took a break from a shopping spree induced by unseasonably warm weather in prior months and an earlier Easter holiday. The 0.1 percent gain followed a 0.7 percent increase in March, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The April advance matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
• Manufacturing in NY Region Rises More Than Forecast. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index increased to 17.1 this month from 6.6 in April. The median estimate in a survey of Bloomberg economists called for an increase to 9.
• Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Climbs. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence rose to 29, the highest since May 2007, a report from the Washington-based group showed today. The gauge exceeded the highest projection in a Bloomberg News survey in which the median estimate was 26. Readings below 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor.

Wall Street Journal:

• Boehner Wants Cuts to Offset Debt-Ceiling Increase. House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) will demand Tuesday that any increase in the government's borrowing limit be accompanied by spending cuts and other budget changes of greater size, according to excerpts of his prepared remarks. His comments, to be delivered in the afternoon at a Washington "fiscal summit" organized by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, mark one of the first salvos delivered by Republican leaders this year on the fiscal scramble that is expected to take place after the November elections.
• Justice Department Opens JPMorgan(JPM) Inquiry. The Justice Department has opened an inquiry into J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s $2 billion-plus trading loss, according to a person familiar with the matter.
• Lagarde: Outcome of Greece Euro Exit Could be 'Quite Messy'. The consequences of Greece leaving the euro zone would be difficult to assess, but the situation could easily degenerate into turmoil, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. "The spillover effects, the chain of consequences that could result from that [Greek euro exit] are very difficult to assess," Christine Lagarde told news station France24 in an interview. "We can certainly assume that it would be quite messy."
• Greek Depositors Withdrew $898 Million From Banks Monday. Greek depositors withdrew €700 million ($898 million) from local banks Monday, the country's president said, as he warned that the situation facing Greece's lenders was very difficult.

MarketWatch:

• Mexico, Brazil Stocks Fall; Real Hits 3-Year Low. Major Latin American stock markets fell Tuesday, with benchmark indexes in Mexico and Brazil extending recent losses and touching their lowest levels in at least three months.

CNBC.com:

• Whale Watch: Why Copying Big Investors Is 'Dangerous'.
• As Investors Fawn Over Facebook(FB), Poll Finds User Distrust, Apathy.

Zero Hedge:

• A Greek Affair To Remember And Mr. Hollande's Opus.
• Euro-Dumpfest Continues as LTRO Banks Implode.
• Santelli Explains Why A Broke California "Likes" A Hot Facebook(FB) IPO.
• Complete April and YTD Hedge Fund Performance Summary.
  

NY Post:

• Obama's Gay Marriage Decision Helped Raise $21M for Presidential Run In Just Days

Reuters:

• Hedge Funds Eye Further Profits From JPMorgan(JPM) Losses. Hedge funds are holding out for further gains from their bets against JPMorgan's massive position in U.S. credit derivatives, racking up tidy profits from a lucrative trade that could cost the U.S. bank more than $3 billion. Managers - some of them ex-employees of the biggest U.S. bank - started betting in credit derivative markets, including on an index of credit default swaps against its constituents, during the first quarter, believing JPMorgan's huge positions had created dislocations in the market which would disappear over time. Some of those funds are sticking with their positions just as the bank tries to unwind its trades, industry insiders say.
• ECB and Banks Brace for "Blockupy" Protest Chaos. The European Central Bank plans to hold its mid-month policy meeting early, move staff out of its headquarters and shift a farewell event for one of its board members out of town, all to avoid clashes with anti-capitalist 'Blockupy' protesters. 'Blockupy' activists angry at the way the financial crisis is affecting ordinary people are set to demonstrate in central Frankfurt from Wednesday to Saturday and have made the ECB and its building their central target.
• Copper at 4-Month Low as EU Concerns Mount. Copper hit a four-month low on Tuesday, shrugging off upbeat German growth data, as other EU economies contracted, the euro fell and concerns over slower growth in China and a political stalemate in Greece kept prices in check. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $7,760, from a close of $7,775 on Monday. Earlier, the metal used in power and construction hit a session low of $7,732 a metric ton (1.1023 tons), its lowest since January 12.
• Home Depot(HD) Sales Miss Wall St Estimates. Home Depot Inc posted quarterly sales that fell short of Wall Street's heightened expectations on Tuesday after demand slowed in April following a jump in home improvement projects spurred by an unusually warm winter.

Financial Times:

• The State of the Eurozone, Credit Edition. Have you been wondering how Greece’s “new” bonds are doing? As in, the ones that were given to all those debtholders when they finally agreed — or were voted into by collective action clauses — the restructuring in March. Well, here they are:

Telegraph:

• This is How the Euro Ends - Not With a Whimper But a Bang. With Greece unable to form a government and therefore now set on new elections, how's this going to pan out? Very badly, is the almost certain answer.
• Appetiser cost of Greek exit is €155bn for Germany, France: trillions for meat course. Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if Greece is pushed out of the euro.

Independent.ie:

• Largest Banks in America Cut Exposure to Ireland by Up to $1Bn. SOME of the largest banks in the world have cut their exposure to Ireland by almost a billion dollars since the start of the year, as big investors move away from this country. Latest filings in the US show Goldman Sachs and Bank of America cut the amounts they have invested in Irish-related securities by at least $800m (€622m) between the end of last year and March 31; while JP Morgan's Irish investments are now so small they are bundled in with Greece and Portugal.

The Australian:

• China Growth 'has slowed to a walk'. TROUBLE is looming. Even in the few days since last week's federal budget, some of its basic assumptions, particularly about Chinese growth, are looking shaky. Heavy-hitting economists in Beijing are now worrying that China's growth has already slowed to a walking pace at best, well beyond the Chinese government's intention to calm down earlier runaway expansion. "It has been a nice ride for Australia, a fantastic ride," says Patrick Chovanec, associate professor at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua, one of China's top universities. "I wouldn't blame anyone for riding that wave. But it's starting to putter out. Australia has been growing out of China's bubble, and it wasn't sustainable . . . we're starting to see what that looks like." A growing number of economists are stating that the 8.1 per cent year-on-year growth China's National Bureau of Statistics announced for the first quarter of this year was suspiciously rosy, even by the generally unreliable standards often ascribed to those statistics. The reason for widespread questioning about the 8.1 per cent to 7.4 per cent growth figure is the unusually wide range of other data that points to a much slower pace. These include electricity output rising just 0.7 per cent last month, when imports grew only 0.3 per cent, real estate sales were down 16 per cent, and new property construction was down 4.2 per cent. The Bank of China, the third-biggest of the state-owned "pillar" banks by assets, announced that its new loans fell 17 per cent in the first quarter, year-on-year. Deposits in Chinese banks as a whole fell by 0.5 per cent last month, according to the central bank. The People's Bank of China's announcement last weekend of a cut of half a percentage point in the reserve ratio requirement is unlikely, in such circumstances, to achieve its aim of freeing up further funding for banks to lend out. The tight controls over margins are driving lenders away now that alternatives are emerging. And if deposits keep falling, reserve ratios will have to keep falling too, just to maintain the amount of money available for lending out. Industrial production rose just 0.35 per cent in April from March, after increasing 1.22 per cent from February. And value-added industrial output rose 9.3 per cent in April from a year earlier, slowing sharply from a 11.9 per cent year-on-year increase in March. Retail sales increased 14.1 per cent in April from a year earlier, compared with a 15.2 per cent rise in March. UK risk-analysis firm Business Monitor International has forecast air-freight tonnage to increase by 4.4 per cent in China this year, Port of Shanghai throughput to rise by just 2.3 per cent, national road freight by 3.6 per cent and rail freight by 3.7 per cent. According to US cables revealed via Wikileaks, Li Keqiang, who is to become Premier said he used three core statistics to track the performance of the Chinese economy, rather than the bald growth figure: electricity consumption, rail-cargo volume and bank lending. Aggregating these three from the performance in the year so far, it is hard to see how China can reach anywhere near the 8.5 per cent overall growth the federal government's budget anticipates. "When you look at the trend lines, they are down: for instance, real estate, which accounts for a lot of the demand for steel and has especially benefited Australia, which has been perfectly positioned to feed China's investment boom of the past three years." Real estate comprises a quarter of China's fixed-asset investments, and half its GDP growth. But its sales are down this year and starts are either flat or down. The apparently contradictory 24 per cent lift in investment in real estate has come, he says, from "developers rushing to complete projects, to get into the market, cash out and pay off debts". Completions are up 33 per cent. Only 14 per cent of Chinese consumers say they are interested in buying property, the lowest rate since 1999, because they see that prices falling. Despite the common international perception, he says, "there are not many levers they can pull, and all of them come at a cost". China could pump money back in to reflate the asset bubble, he says, but the quality and value of the resulting infrastructure would be questionable. "There has always been a strong incentive for officials to overstate growth," he says. "But if growth is lower than the official figures, why have commodity prices stayed reasonably high?" One answer, he suspects, is the additional stock-piling of non-food commodities. He says 90 per cent of the copper held in warehouses in Shanghai is used for financing -- and if prices come down, there will be margin calls, and China will temporarily become a copper exporter. He says a slowdown is certainly under way in China, and reducing the reserve requirement -- as the country's central bank did on Saturday -- will not help much. "It is the loan quota that has been the real binding constraint, but that is now shifting so that demand (or the lack of it) is the new restraint on the economy."

China Daily:

• Chines State Councilor Dai Bingguo said China "won't be bullied" by a "small nation" like the Philippines.

Shanghai Daily:

• Shanghai's Growth Slows Again. SHANGHAI'S economic growth weakened further in April as exports, imports and fixed-asset investment all declined. The weak performance also nibbled away at industrial production growth in the first four months, the Shanghai Statistics Bureau said yesterday. With less inflationary pressure around the country, Shanghai, in particular, needs stimulus to boost its growth, analysts said. Exports fell 5.6 percent from a year earlier to US$16.3 billion last month, and imports were down 1.6 percent to US$18.2 billion. It was the first time since October 2009 that Shanghai had reported declines in both exports and imports, the bureau said. Fixed-asset investment in the first four months lost 0.4 percent to 122.3 billion yuan (US$19.4 billion), led by a cut of 25.8 percent in urban infrastructure construction investment. Industrial production also slumped 0.2 percent to 1.01 trillion yuan during the four months, compared with 0.7 percent expansion in the first quarter. "Shanghai's economic growth is weakening faster than feared," said Li Maoyu, a Changjiang Securities Co analyst.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.43%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -5.03% 2) Oil Service -1.63% 3) Gold & Silver -1.33%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CHK, LFL, ANGI, BMA, FIO, EPAM, DB, ACAT, VTUS, PHMD, FRAN, WCRX, HMIN, JAZZ, FOSL, AUXL, PETD, LUFK, AKO/A, EWO, KNM, AL, GORO, VAL, CHKR, ANR and AVP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) CX 3) LOW 4) EWG 5) EWY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BBY 2) PRU 3) CHK 4) JPM 5) AVP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.13%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Internet +.93% 2) Disk Drives +.91% 3) Oil Tankers +.56%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OPNT, TJX, DKS, P, ACXM, IOC, GRPN, SVVC, GSVC, AMLN, MAKO, A and LEN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UUP 2) SYY 3) GRPN 4) P 5) AMLN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OPNT 2) JBL 3) A 4) ZNGA 5) HD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• UniCredit, Intesa Among 26 Italian Banks Cut by Moody’s. UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) were among 26 Italian banks that had their credit ratings cut one to four levels by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited weakened earnings and the country’s economic outlook. UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank, had its long-term debt rating lowered one step to A3, Moody’s said in a spreadsheet on its website yesterday. Milan-based Intesa, the nation’s second- largest lender, also was downgraded to A3 from A2. “Italian banks are particularly vulnerable to adverse operating conditions, which are likely to cause further asset quality deterioration, earnings pressure, and restricted market funding access,” Moody’s said in a statement. “These risks are exacerbated by investor concerns over the sustainability of the Italian government’s debt burden, which has contributed to the difficult wholesale funding conditions faced by Italian banks.”
• Greek President Pitches New Government Plan to Break Stalemate. Greek President Karolos Papoulias will attempt to persuade divided party leaders today to accept his proposal for a government of prominent non-politicians to steer the country and avert new elections as doubts mount that Greece can avoid an exit from the euro area. Papoulias will meet with all leaders of parties represented in parliament except for an ultra-nationalist party today at 2 p.m. in Athens, said Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of Pasok, the third-biggest party. Venizelos, who did not provide further details of the president's plan, spoke after meeting with Papoulias and the leaders of two other parties yesterday. "Pasok is taking a responsible stance," Venizelos said in comments televised live on state-run NET TV. "We support a government of prominent figures as a necessary solution." The new plan threatens to extend the political gridlock that has left the country without a government for more than a week since the inconclusive May 6 elections. Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis, who attended yesterday's meeting, said he was opposed to the new plan and will attend today to press for his unity-government proposal, which has already been rejected by the second-biggest party, Syriza.
• Money Market Stresses Rise Fastest in Six Months: Credit Markets. Stress in global credit markets is climbing at the fastest pace in six months as speculation Greece may exit Europe's common currency sparks anxiety that the region's leaders can't stem their sovereign-debt crisis. Interest-rate swap spreads, which gauge fear in debt markets, and a measure of corporate credit risk in the U.S. climbed to four-month highs yesterday. A gauge of banks' reluctance to lend to each other reached the most since February.
• Euro Chiefs May Offer Leniency to Greece. European governments hinted at giving Greece extra time to meet budget-cut targets, as long as the financially stricken country’s feuding politicians put together a ruling coalition committed to austerity. Calling talk of a Greek pullout from the euro “nonsense” and “propaganda,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said only a “fully functioning” Greek government would be entitled to tinker with the conditions attached to 240 billion euros ($308 billion) of rescue aid. “The government would have to stand by the program,” Juncker told reporters after chairing a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels late yesterday. “If there are dramatic changes in circumstances, we wouldn’t close ourselves off to a debate over extending the deadlines.”
• Huether Says Greece May Be Forced to Exit Euro, Bild Reports. Michael Huether, the German economist and head of the IW economic institute, said eurozone governments may have to force Greece to exit the common currency unless the country adheres to its austerity promises, Bild-Zeitung reported. Greece may shun such a step because of the “dramatic consequences” for the country, the newspaper cited Huether as saying in a preview of an interview in tomorrow’s edition.
• Appaloosa’s Tepper Bets on Technology With Apple(AAPL), Google(GOOG) Buys. Appaloosa Management LP, the hedge fund run by David Allan Tepper, bet on technology in the first quarter with purchases of Apple (AAPL) Inc., Google Inc. (GOOG) and an exchange-traded fund that mimics the Nasdaq 100 Index. The hedge fund, based in Chatham, New Jersey, bought 503,000 shares of Apple valued at $337 million, 162,000 shares of Google valued at $104 million and 18.9 million shares of the PowerShares QQQ Trust, valued at $1.27 billion, according to a filing today with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
• Dimon on New York Fed Board Renews Concern About Conflict. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon’s position as a director on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s board renewed concern that the central bank is too close to the institutions it oversees.
• JPMorgan(JPM) Said to Weigh Bonus Clawbacks After Loss. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the biggest U.S. bank, will consider reclaiming incentive pay from employees including former Chief Investment Officer Ina Drew after her unit had a $2 billion trading loss, said two senior executives. The lender can cancel stock awards or demand they be repaid if an employee “engages in conduct that causes material financial or reputational harm,” JPMorgan said in its annual proxy statement. The company will claw back pay if it’s appropriate, said one of the executives, who asked not to be identified because no decisions have been made.
• China Foreign Investment Falls 0.7% in Sixth Monthly Drop. Foreign direct investment in China fell for a sixth month in April, as faltering global growth and renewed turmoil in financial markets dented company spending in Asia’s biggest economy. Inbound investment dropped 0.7 percent from a year earlier to $8.4 billion, the Ministry of Commerce said today in Beijing. That compares with a 6.1 percent drop in March and extends the longest stretch of declines since the global financial crisis.
• Amylin(AMLN) Said to Attract Interest From Pfizer, AstraZeneca. Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN) has lured suitors such as Pfizer Inc. (PFE), AstraZeneca Plc and Sanofi, which signed confidentiality agreements on the drugmaker’s sale process, said people familiar with the matter.
• Rubber Plunges to a Four-Month Low on Greek Impasse. Rubber plunged to a four-month low as the political impasse in Greece raised speculation the nation may leave the euro, deepening an economic slump in the region and weakening demand for the commodity used in tires. October-delivery rubber slumped as much as 5.1 percent to 265 yen a kilogram ($3,317 a metric ton), the lowest level for a most-active contract since Jan. 6, before trading at 268 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 10:15 a.m. local time. Prices have trimmed this year’s advance to 1.7 percent.

Wall Street Journal:

• Spain's Bank Crisis Hits Aerospace. A Spanish manufacturer of critical components for major aircraft makers including Airbus, Boeing Co. and Embraer is slowing production and struggling to pay its bills. Alestis Aerospace SL is facing a cash crunch because of Spain's banking crisis, a powerful illustration of how Europe's financial upheaval is hurting its industrial economy and risks disrupting some of the world's most successful jetliner programs. Seville-based Alestis earlier this month was placed under court administration, the Spanish equivalent of U.S. bankruptcy protection.
• Iran Exile Group Nears U.S. Rebirth. The Obama administration is moving to remove an Iranian opposition group from the State Department's terrorism list, say officials briefed on the talks, in an action that could further poison Washington's relations with Tehran at a time of renewed diplomatic efforts to curtail Iran's nuclear program. The exile organization, the Mujahedin-e Khalq, or MeK, was originally named as a terrorist entity 15 years ago for its alleged role in assassinating U.S. citizens in the years before the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran and for allying with Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein against Tehran.
• Brown Warns Californians: Taxes or Cuts. California Gov. Jerry Brown laid out a revised budget plan that relies on deeper spending cuts and higher taxes to bridge a projected state deficit that has widened to $15.7 billion from $9.2 billion since January. The Democratic governor said Monday he had no choice but to cut even deeper into social services to help close a budget gap that has shot up due to lower-than-expected tax revenue and delays and court-ordered impediments to spending cuts.
• JPMorgan(JPM) Moves to Protect Dimon. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. closed ranks around Chief Executive James Dimon ahead of a shareholder meeting and announced the departure of a senior executive at the center of a trading blunder that has cost the bank more than $2 billion in losses.
• The Union Pension Bomb. Imagine the panic if investors discovered that many of the nation's biggest public companies had hidden liabilities so large as to make them worth a fraction of their value. That's something akin to the shock created by the recent Credit Suisse report on multi-employer pension plans.

Business Insider:

• This Former CIA Officer Reveals Everything You Want To Know About Being An American Spy. "I would hazard to guess there are more foreign intelligence officers inside the U.S. working against U.S. interests now than even at the height of the Cold War,"said Crumpton.
• GREEK MINISTER: An Exit From The Eurozone Could Trigger Civil War.

Zero Hedge:

• JPM Chase(JPM) Chairman, Jamie Dimon, The Whale Man, And Glass-Steagall.
• It's An Interconnected World After All.
• Deja Deja Deja Etc. As S&P 500 Closes Below 50DMA First Time Since November.

CNBC:

• Groupon(GRPN) Beats Expectations on Domestic Growth, Lower Costs. Investors who snapped up Groupon shares on Friday certainly snagged a deal. After reporting earnings after the bell Monday, the online deals service's shares climbed, gaining some 33 percent since Friday’s close. The after-hours action extended today’s rally—Groupon's stock soared 18 percent as 14.7 million shares traded hands—the heaviest trading of the stock since its IPO on November 4.
• Facebook(FB) Raises IPO Price Range to $34-38 per Share.
• Where Are the Investors? Turnover in Major Asian Markets Plunges. Trading, measured by the turnover in Hong Kong and Singapore equities, fell in the first four months of the year on concerns over Europe’s debt crisis and as investors seek alternative investments to stocks after recent corporate scandals and the 2008 global financial crisis.
• Coty Withdraws Takeover Bid for Avon(AVP). Coty said on Monday it is withdrawing its $10.7 billion takeover bid for Avon Products, saying the world's largest cosmetics direct seller had missed its deadline to start talks.

NY Times:

• Red Flags Said to Go Unheeded by Chase Bosses. In the years leading up to JPMorgan Chase’s $2 billion trading loss, risk managers and some senior investment bankers raised concerns that the bank was making increasingly large investments involving complex trades that were hard to understand. But even as the size of the bets climbed steadily, these former employees say, their concerns about the dangers were ignored or dismissed.

LA Times:

• Disk Network(DISH) Ad-Skipping Feature Auto Hop Irks Network TV Execs. An NBC executive called the satellite broadcaster's new offering enabling customers to block commercials from certain recorded shows 'an attack on our ecosystem' while a Fox executive described Dish's decision to offer the feature 'a strange thing to do.'

CBS News:

• Poll: Romney 46%, Obama 43%. Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 38%.

Reuters:

• Fed Examining Other Risks Being Taken by JPMorgan.(JPM). The Federal Reserve is examining whether JPMorgan Chase & Co is taking risks elsewhere in the bank similar to the botched trading strategy that could cost the bank more than $2 billion, a Fed spokeswoman said on Monday. The central bank is also reviewing whether the trading losses have any broader implications for how JPMorgan manages its risk, the spokeswoman said.
• Maybe Europe Should Abandon Euro - Canada's Flaherty. If European countries are not prepared to bail out fellow euro zone members, maybe they should just abandon the whole concept of a common currency, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Monday in some of his most direct remarks on the issue. "This is a time of crisis in the euro zone. The whole future of the euro zone is up for grabs, and this is very important for many of the euro zone member countries, given the history of Europe in the last 100 years or so," Flaherty told CTV television. "So they have to show courage. They have to do the right thing, use some of their taxpayers' money to bail out some of the weaker members of the euro zone - or start moving away from the euro zone and just say this was an experiment that has not worked."
• Agilent(A) profit beats; forecasts strong revenue. Electronics testing equipment maker Agilent Technologies Inc posted a better-than-expected profit as orders rose in its core business, and forecast third-quarter revenue above estimates.

Financial Times:

• Faith Fades in Eurozone Firewall. Fears that the eurozone’s firewall will prove insufficient to shield Spain and other embattled countries against the effects of a possible disorderly Greek exit from the currency union hit European financial markets on Monday.

Telegraph:

• Brace, Brace. Dark Times Ahead as Greece Heads for the Exit. European policymakers are about to commit another major blunder in their handling of the eurozone debt crisis, and this time it could well be fatal. Mistakenly, they have convinced themselves that it won't much matter if Greece leaves, and indeed that it might even help resolve the wider crisis to get rid of this persistent thorn in the flesh. Bring it on, they mutter callously; it will be a lot worse for them than for us. On one level, this is just bravado. It's an attempt to put as nonchalant a face as possible on the now apparently inevitable. But they also seem to believe in their validity of their own analysis – that they have indeed used the past two years well, and are now fully prepared for a Greek exit. Believe it if you will. The ineptitude to date of the eurozone's crisis response strongly suggests a different conclusion – both that the likely contagion from an exit has been hugely underestimated, and that by prompting a wider breakup, thereby tipping Europe into depression, it may end up as bad for everyone else as it is for Greece.

Die Welt:

• IG Metall, Germany's main labor union for manufacturing workers, plans to ask its members in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg to vote on unlimited strikes unless there is progress in wages talks. The union, which is demanding a 6.5% pay raise, will start the voting process on May 16 unless talks scheduled for tomorrow reach a breakthrough, citing an interview with union leader Joerg Hofmann.

Financial Times Deutschland:

• Germany's financial regulator Bafin wants to boost the number of Germans serving at European regulatory agencies, citing an interview with Bafin chief Elke Koenig.

South China Morning Post:

• Chinese Railway Ministry's Massive Debt Tipped To Get A Lot Worse, Dagong Says. Rising costs to hurt profitability, credit rating agency says, citing a report on the ministry's first issue of short-term bonds in 2012. The Ministry will issue 20b yuan of 1-yr bonds to fund construction, buy rolling stock, citing the prospectus. Ministry total debt was 2.4t yuan on March 31 vs. 1.3t at the end of 2009.

People's Daily:

• Problems associated with "unbalanced", "uncoordinated" and "unsustainable" development in China remain "apparent," Zhou Yongkang, a member of the nation's Politburo Standing Committee, said in a speech from May 9th published today. China will be at the "beginning stages" of socialism for a long period of time, Zhou said. Many factors currently exist that affect social stability, he said.

21st Century Business Herald:

• China Investment Corp. has asked the U.S. Federal Reserve to give it status as a sovereign wealth fund and not a bank holding company to be exempted from the Volcker rule, citing people familiar with the matter. The exemption would allow the fund to avoid the compulsory sale of some of its U.S. assets, particularly private equity investments and hedge fund investments, the report says.

China Securities Journal:

• Shanghai Tightens Home Purchase Restrictions. Single residents with Shanghai registration, so-called hukou, are no longer allowed to buy a second home, citing the city's real estate trading centers. Shanghai previously said local families with hukou, including single persons, could buy a second home.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 190.0 +7.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 150.50 +5.0 basis points.
  
• FTSE-100 futures -.40%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (HD)/.65
• (DKS)/.38
• (SKS)/.18
• (TJX)/.54
• (JCP)/-.08
• (RAH)/.85

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Consumer Price Index for April is estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in March.
• The CPI Ex Food & Energy for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in March.
• Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated to rise to 9.0 versus a reading of 6.56 in April.
• Advance Retail Sales for April are estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.8% gain in March.
• Retail Sales Less Autos for April are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.8% gain in March.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas for April are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in March.

9:00 am EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March are estimated to rise to $32.5B versus $10.1B in February.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for March are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +6% gain in February.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated to rise to 26.0 versus 25.0 in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Hollande/Merkel meeting in Berlin, Greek bond redemption, Italian GDP, weekly retail sales reports, (BA) investor conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, BofA Merrill Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, Oppenheimer Industrials Conference and the JPMorgan Homebuilding Conference could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.