Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver -2.33% 2) Homebuilders -1.0% 3) Gaming -.72%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- MGI, ATLS, ARP, LII, RUSHA, APL, TRP, ACTG, CMG, CNSI, ATHN, CPHD, LULU, GLOG, MAC, ABX, TNC, CBF, GPOR, GDOT, UMPQ and GLNG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) KMI 2) MBI 3) FITB 4) KRE 5) DXJ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DISCA 2) GM 3) WLT 4) YHOO 5) JBL
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +1.05% 2) Education +.88% 3) Disk Drives +.87%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- WB, SRPT, AZN, PNK, SCSS, CYTK, MXWL, INSM, NEM and IPXL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) SMH 2) SCSS 3) SRPT 4) VNDA 5) LYB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) SRPT 2) NEM 3) STI 4) CDNS 5) AAPL
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Says Russia Preparing Grounds for Invasion. At
least three people were killed in a clash in Slovyansk in eastern
Ukraine, the nation’s Interior Ministry said, as a top security official
accused Russia of exploiting the violence to prepare grounds for an
invasion. Three “activists” were shot to death while on duty at a
roadblock in an attack early today that also left three other people
injured, the ministry said in a posting on its website. It said the
assailants took “wounded and killed along with them,” without providing
details. Ukraine’s Security Service said saboteurs
carried out the assault.
- Ukraine Separatists Hold Ground as U.S. Eyes Sanctions. Shootouts
in eastern Ukraine over the weekend led to calls for more U.S. economic
sanctions against Russia, as a diplomatic accord aimed at defusing the
crisis showed little sign of taking hold. Ukrainian and Russian officials
traded accusations over responsibility for tensions that escalated since
last week’s signing of an agreement in Geneva that sought disarmament
of all illegal groups and vacating of all seized buildings.
- Japan’s Trade Deficit Widens as Export Growth Weakens: Economy. Japan’s weakest export growth in a year spurred a wider-than-forecast trade deficit in March, adding to challenges for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in steering the economy through the aftermath of an April 1 sales-tax rise. The shortfall of 1.45 trillion yen ($14.1 billion) reported by the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo today compared with a 1.08 trillion yen median estimate of 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Shipments overseas rose 1.8 percent, while imports jumped 18.1 percent from a year earlier. A spending spree ahead of the tax rise boosted demand for foreign goods, and a surge in energy costs due to the yen’s
slide and nuclear shutdowns helped make the deficit the biggest
ever for March. Sliding consumer confidence indicates domestic
demand may weaken, while slowing export growth suggests external
demand may fail to provide much support for an economy set to
contract this quarter.
- Kuroda Inflation Focus Risking
Money-Market Health: Japan Credit. Money market watchers say Bank of
Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda risks crippling the foundation of the
nation's financial system to achieve his inflation target. The
outstanding balance of interbank lending in the so-called call market
tumbled 17% this year to 14.1 trillion yen on April ll, the least since
January 2003 when the central bank was conducting its first round of
easing through bond purchases. The decline in trading makes the money
market vulnerable to shocks in times of crisis by increasing volatility,
according to UBS AG. BOJ purchases have already eroded debt market
trading, with 10-year government bonds untraded on April 14 for the
first time in 13 years.
- Yen Drops on Trade Data as Japan Stocks Rise; Gold Slides.
Japan’s yen slipped as the country posted a wider-than-estimated trade
deficit, while stocks rose in Tokyo. Gold fell and wheat retreated. The
yen weakened 0.2 percent versus the dollar as of 12:43 a.m. in Tokyo,
sliding against all major peers as exports increased just 1.8 percent in
March when economists had projected a 6.5 percent jump. The Nikkei 225
Stock Average added
0.5 percent after surging the most since November last week.
- Asian Stocks Swing Between Gains, Losses as Telecoms Rise.
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as health-care stocks
declined while mobile carriers led the advance. Several markets across
the region are shut today for a holiday. SoftBank Corp. added 1.6
percent, pacing gains among Japanese phone companies. Consumer-loan
providers Acom Co. (8572) and Aiful Corp. each jumped at least 12
percent after the Nikkei newspaper reported that the ruling party is
considering loosening lending restrictions. Ono Pharmaceutical Co. fell
1.8 percent to lead losses among health-care stocks. LG Innotek Co.
(011070), which supplies parts used in Apple Inc.’s iPhone and iPad,
dropped 3 percent as it retreated from a three-year high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent to 139.03 as of 12:41 p.m. in Tokyo after rising as much as 0.1 percent.
- Obamacare Triggers Jump in U.S. Consumers’ Health-Care Spending.
While it’s been rising fairly steadily since 2000, the share of
consumer budgets dedicated to medical care climbed to a record 17.1
percent in February from 16.9 percent in December. About 59 percent of
employees say Obamacare could increase insurance costs, according to
a PwC U.S. survey of 2,100 employed adults released April 8. About
one-third of 700 companies have increased deductibles or other
cost-sharing, and 48 percent are considering similar moves, according to
a survey by New York-based consulting firm Mercer LLC. “The effect on consumption is already so substantial, we ignore it at our own peril,” Low wrote in a March 28 note to clients. Sales
could slow at stores such as Wal-Mart and Target Corp., Low said, as
middle-income households spend more on copays and deductibles.
Low-earners will be less affected as they benefit from Medicaid
expansion and tax credits, he said. Retailers could see effects mounting through 2016 as more people
enroll in insurance and more companies ask employees to shoulder higher
costs, said Lance Roberts, a partner at STA Wealth Management in
Houston. “When you have an increase in costs, combined with a
lack of wage increases, the consumer has to make decisions about where
they spend their money,” Roberts said. “Less money to spend means less
money for retail.”
- BofA(BAC), NYSE, Brokerages Sued Over High-Frequency Trading. Bank
of America Corp. and the New York Stock Exchange were among dozens of
exchanges, brokerages and traders sued over high-frequency trading by
the city of Providence, Rhode Island, over claims they rigged securities
markets to divert billions of dollars from buyers and sellers of
shares.
- SEC Said to Weigh Shining Light on Brokers’ Stock Routing. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is weighing a requirement
that brokers tell investors exactly where their stock trades go to be
executed, a proposal that may address complaints that the decisions are
sometimes made without the client’s best interests at heart. The
proposal could give investors more insight into whether they are
getting the best price when they buy and sell large numbers of shares,
according to three people familiar with the matter. Brokers
entrusted with orders in the U.S. stock market can choose from dozens of
exchanges and private venues. Some money managers such as T. Rowe Price
Group Inc. (TROW) have told regulators that incentives offered by
exchanges for attracting orders can put a broker’s financial interest at
odds with the
customer’s.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
- China new home prices rise 7.7% on year in March. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 7.7 percent in
March from a year earlier, easing from the previous month's 8.7 percent
rise, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.
Business Insider:
Wall Street All-Stars:
CNN:
- The rise of leveraged loans.
Collateralized loan obligations are not inherently bad investments. But
demand for yield has led to a reduction in the quality of loans behind
them, and the result may be rather ugly.
NY Times:
- Health Care Spending’s Recent Surge Stirs Unease.
A surge of insurance enrollment related to rising employment and
President Obama’s health care law has likely meant a surge of spending
on health care, leaving policy experts wondering whether the government
and private businesses can
control spending as the economy gets stronger and millions more
Americans gain coverage. “Following
several years of decline, 2013 was striking for the increased use by
patients of all parts of the U.S. health care system,” Murray Aitken,
executive director of the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, said
in a statement.
- Banks Cling to Bundles Holding Risk.
The Volcker Rule doesn’t go into effect until 2015, but that hasn’t
stopped big bankers and their supporters in Washington from trying to
undermine it. The
latest fight involves another complex Wall Street creation, a financial
instrument known as a collateralized loan obligation. Big banks want to
be allowed to own them but regulators say such holdings can be
hazardous and may allow the banks to evade the Volcker Rule’s
prohibition on risky trading.
AP:
- GM waited years to recall 335,000 Saturn Ions for power steering failures, documents show. General Motors waited years to recall nearly 335,000 Saturn Ions for
power steering failures despite getting thousands of consumer complaints
and more than 30,000 warranty repair claims, according to government
documents released Saturday.The National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, the government's auto safety watchdog, also didn't seek a
recall of the compact car from the 2004 through 2007 model years even
though it opened an investigation more than two years ago and found 12
crashes and two injuries caused by the problem.
Telegraph:
WirtschaftsWoche:
- Ifo's
Sinn Says Crisis Countries Need to Exit Euro Region. Big writedown for
state, bank debt needed in some crisis countries, Hans-Werner Sinn,
president of Munich-based Ifo economic institute, says in interview.
Euro region needs to be redesigned with rules that work better, some
members would then have to leave currency union. Rescue measures such as
ESM and ECB's govt bond purchases lead to crisis countries getting
deeper into debt. Minimum wage threatens Germany's competitiveness, he
said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Bullish commentary on (HD), (GOOG), (RTN), (SRPT), (WFT), (MYCC), (VIVO) and (RHT).
- Bearish commentary on (CMG), (TWTR), (NFLX), (AMZN) and (FB).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.50 +1.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 88.25 +.5 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for March.
10:00 am EST
- The Leading Index for March is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.5% gain in February.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The (GME) Investor Day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (audio).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on
yen weakness, short-covering, technical buying and earnings optimism.
My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and
the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- Russell 2000 1,137.90 +.91%
- S&P 500 High Beta 30.93 +2.59%
- Wilshire 5000 19,554.50 +1.60%
- Russell 1000 Growth 861.34 +1.54%
- Russell 1000 Value 948.55 +1.78%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 448.37 +1.55%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,516.45 +2.15%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 916.12 +1.30%
- Transports 7,634.42 +2.73%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 109.02 -.62%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 41.69 -.97%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,155.35 -1.45%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 972.88 -.22%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 214,360 +1.23%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 187 +269
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.43 -22.33%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 399,787 n/a
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,655,472 n/a
- Total Put/Call .84 -16.83%
- ISE Sentiment 93.0 +19.23%
- Volatility(VIX) 13.36 -15.92%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.46 +.88%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.65 -2.49%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.42 +.60%
- Smart Money Flow Index 10,918.85 +.82%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.577 Trillion -1.34%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$2.076 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 27.22 -4.4%
- AAII % Bears 34.25 +.4%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 305.47 +1.55%
- Heating Oil 300.82 +2.40%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 190.78 +.46%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Ton +3.5%
- China Iron Ore Spot 116.50 USD/Ton -2.18%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,547.78 +.54%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.9% +60 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1429 +7.69%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.71 +.07%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.1 -14.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.70 -2.6 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30
- US Dollar Index 79.87 +.46%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.63 +.27%
- Yield Curve 233.0 +6 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.72% +10 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.241 Trillion +.95%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.13 -4.83%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 133.0 +2.63%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 34.91 -3.01%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 88.08 -.34%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 263.60 +3.2%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.76 -.84%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 240.34 +7.89%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 354.40 +.87%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21% +7.0 basis points
- TED Spread 20.5 +1.5 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +1.0 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.5 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 67.76 -1.58%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 79.95 -3.29%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 277.14 -.83%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 83.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $2.754 Trillion +.78%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,044.50 +.60%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 312,000 -4,250
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.27% -7 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 366.10 +4.3%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.10 +2.8 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.6% -10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.66/gallon +.04/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 930 -9.62%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,070.97 +.27%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
- Rail Freight Carloads 264,382 +1.26%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)
- AKBA, ZIGO, CHDX, RGEN, ATHL and CNMD
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)
- HMSY, ZBRA, BCO, PBY, MDBX, TZOO and CNSI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change