Indices
- Russell 2000 1,189.50 +.09%
- S&P 500 High Beta 33.22 +.42%
- Wilshire 5000 20,558.10 -.08%
- Russell 1000 Growth 910.50 +.28%
- Russell 1000 Value 992.94 -.45%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 459.49 -1.36%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,593.82 -.09%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 957.57 +.29%
- Transports 8,175.52 -.36%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 106.52 -3.6%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 43.18 -.50%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,174.77 -.02%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 961.52 -.15%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 228,353 +.39%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 159 -569
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 39.39 -21.22%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 458,969 +.40%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,720,856 -.05%
- Total Put/Call .83 +7.79%
- OEX Put/Call 3.50 +253.54%
- ISE Sentiment 141.0 +63.95%
- Volatility(VIX) 11.26 +3.78%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.83 +2.98%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.38 -1.10%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 5.86 -1.84%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,436.68 unch.
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.556 Trillion +.20%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.193 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 37.2 +5.8%
- AAII % Bears 21.1 -12.6%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 309.88 -.98%
- Heating Oil 299.76 -1.80%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 197.01 +1.71%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 357.0 USD/Ton unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 94.90 USD/Ton +3.04%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,472.18 -1.0%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.4% -10.0 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1242 -4.4%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 124.94 +.10%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.70 -13.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.10 +2.2 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 44.0% chance of no change, 56.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/30
- US Dollar Index 80.04 -.36%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.54 -.26%
- Yield Curve 207.0 -8.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.53% -8.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.326 Trillion unch.
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.97 -2.83%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 160.0 +3.23%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 28.67 -1.78%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 73.35 -1.60%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 188.44 -3.32%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.23 +2.97%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 329.65 +.90%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 173.99 -8.11%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 312.94 +.54%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26% -1.0 basis points
- TED Spread 21.50 +1.25 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 -2.0 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 -1.0 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 57.68 +2.73%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 65.52 +10.41%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 235.79 +.03%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 83.0 -1.0 basis point
- M1 Money Supply $2.831 Trillion -.11%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,054.80 +1.20%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 314,250 +2,500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.0% +10 basis points
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.14% -3 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 348.10 -1.0%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.1 unch.
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.40% unch.
- Nationwide Gas $3.68/gallon +.03/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 824.0 -8.85%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,092.11 -.99%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +20.0%
- Rail Freight Carloads 272,553 +.85%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)
- VRTX, AERI, SQBG, XONE, IRM, VCYT, TEG, TNC, KMX, SBGI, MEI, HBI, BKS, TWOU, PSG, APOG, GTN, CARA, IXYS, TAM, VHC, AMBA, SGNT, CONE and TREE
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)
- GIS, GMC, KND, TSCO, DRI, OC, SEAS, REGN, XXIA, EXL, BBBY, TPH, TRGP, VLO, HFC, SCS, DGI, SWHC and WWWW
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 11.73 +.86%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.43 -.07%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 5.87 -1.34%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.19 -.32%
- ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +3.10%
- Total Put/Call .85 -7.61%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.62 +1.46%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.59 +3.87%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 29.05 +2.43%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.56 -.29%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 235.81 +2.04%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 312.94 +.98%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 +.25 basis point
- TED Spread 21.50 +.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 207.0 +1.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $94.90/Metric Tonne -.42%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.70 -.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.10 -2.8 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Top Cleric Tells Iraq Leaders to Pick Premier by Next Week. Iraq’s top Shiite religious leader escalated pressure on politicians to agree on a new government that can prevent a fracturing of the country, as the
military pressed its assault on militants who have seized major cities. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, in remarks relayed to
worshipers at Friday prayers in the holy city of Karbala, said that
picking a prime minister, president and speaker when the legislature
meets July 1 will lead to the “desired solution” to the crisis.
- EU Tells Russia to Stop Ukraine Rebels or Face New Costs. The
European Union gave Russia three
days to stop a separatist rebellion in Ukraine or face deeper sanctions
as the government in Kiev prepared to extend a cease-fire originally due
to expire tonight. EU leaders meeting in Brussels demanded that the
separatists, whom Ukraine and its allies say are backed by Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s government, return border checkpoints,
release hostages and start talks to implement a peace plan drawn up by
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko by June 30. Failure to do so will result in “further significant restrictive measures” against Russia,
the leaders said in a statement. The U.S. reinforced the EU demands.
White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the conditions “are very
specific steps that the Russians can take by Monday” or face more
economic costs.
- Ukraine to Extend Cease-Fire as President Signs EU Pact. Ukraine will extend a cease-fire in its fight against separatist
rebels today after President Petro Poroshenko signed a European Union
accord rejected by his predecessor that sent the country spiraling into
crisis. The government in Kiev will prolong the week-long truce,
which it says has been repeatedly flouted by pro-Russian separatists,
by 72 hours from an original plan to end it at 10 p.m. tonight, two
European government officials said. The officials asked not to be named
because the discussions were private and hadn’t finished. The extension
will let talks continue on the release of hostages held by separatists
in Ukraine’s eastern border regions, one official said.
- China Builds Its Own Manhattan -- Except It's a Ghost Town. “Investing here won’t be better than throwing money into the water,”
Zhang Zhihe, 60, said during a visit to the area last week from
neighboring Hebei province to look at potential commercial-property
investments. “There will be no way out -- it will be very difficult to
find the next buyer.” The deserted area underscores the challenge
facing China’s leaders in dealing with the fallout from a record
credit-fueled investment spree while sustaining growth and jobs in the
world’s second-biggest economy. A Tianjin local-government financing
vehicle connected to the developments said revenue fell 68 percent in
2013 to an amount that’s less than one-third of debt due this year.
- High-Yield Bond Sales Set to Exceed $100 Billion in Europe.
Sales of junk bonds in Europe are poised to surpass $100 billion for
the first time as companies seek to take advantage of record low funding
costs and investor
demand for higher-yielding securities. Western European companies issued
$99 billion of
speculative-grade debt this year, up from $56 billion in the
first half of 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Issuance has already surpassed last year’s record $96 billion,
the data show. Investors are buying riskier securities after almost six
years of suppressed benchmark interest rates eroded yields. Bond
investors are shrugging off warnings from central bankers
including Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Bundesbank
board member Andreas Dombret that they’ve become too complacent
and are making markets vulnerable to a swift reversal.
- EU Leaders Snub Cameron and Pick Juncker for Top EU Post. European
Union leaders swept aside
U.K. opposition and nominated Jean-Claude Juncker to the EU’s top job,
further fraying ties with Britain before its planned referendum on
membership of the bloc. Government heads proposed Juncker, a
59-year-old former Luxembourg prime minister, as European Commission
president after he ran for the post as the candidate of Europe’s
Christian Democratic parties in EU-wide elections. U.K. Prime Minister
David Cameron was out-voted by his fellow leaders, the first
time such a decision wasn’t taken unanimously.
- Euro-Area Economic Confidence Unexpectedly Fell in June.
An index of executive and consumer sentiment fell to 102 from a
revised 102.6 in May, the European Commission in Brussels said today.
The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 27 economists was for
an increase to 103.
- German Inflation Above Forecasts Signals Euro Area Price Pickup.
German inflation (GRCP2HYY) exceeded economists’ estimates this month,
signaling that the annual rate of consumer-price gains in the euro area
may rise from the lowest level in four years. Inflation, calculated
using a harmonized European Union method, accelerated to 1 percent in
June from 0.6 percent in May, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden
said today. Economists predicted the rate would increase to 0.7
percent, according to the median of 23 estimates in a Bloomberg News
survey. Prices rose 0.4 percent on the month, twice as much as
forecast.
- Bulgarian Lenders Under Attack, Central Bank Chief Warns. The Bulgarian central bank warned
the financial industry is under organized attack by anonymous e-mails, texts and rumors, threatening the Balkan nation’s
security, and urged police to find those responsible. Central bank Governor Ivan Iskrov said that First
Investment Bank AD is the target of an “epidemic of rumors and
libelous public statements.” He asked prosecutors, the Interior
Ministry and the State Agency for National Security to
investigate. The Sofix index fell as much as 2.55 percent, its
fourth consecutive decline, while First Investment, the third-biggest lender by assets, tumbled 23 percent.
- European Stocks Are Little Changed as Mediaset Gains.
European stocks were little changed, with the benchmark index posting
its the biggest weekly loss since early April, as investors weighed data
that showed U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in June. Mediaset (MS)
SpA gained 4 percent after Exane BNP Paribas upgraded its recommendation
on the stock. Ophir Energy Plc fell 5.4 percent after UBS AG downgraded
the shares. Imagination
Technologies Group Plc dropped 5.8 percent after Intel Corp.
sold a 9.3 percent stake in the U.K. designer of chip technology
for devices.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added less than 0.1 percent to
341.97 at the close.
Fox News:
- Sources: US letting Benghazi suspects off hook, recent arrest ‘small potatoes’. According to multiple sources on the ground, including some with direct
knowledge of the operations to identify and hunt the Benghazi suspects,
intelligence that could have been acted upon at times has been ignored
or put on hold. Further, they say, the recent capture of Ahmed Abu
Khattala -- now on a ship bound for the U.S., expected to arrive this
weekend -- was an easy one.
CNBC:
- Hillary reportedly called Obama 'incompetent and feckless'. The book, "Blood Feud" by Edward Klein, claims Clinton's comments
took place at a May 2013 dinner with college friends in Westchester, the New York Post reported. "When her friends asked Hillary to tell them what she thought — really thought — about the president she had served for
four draining years, she lit into Obama with a passion that surprised
them all," Klein wrote, according to the Post.
ZeroHedge:
Washington Post:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
The Economic Times:
- ISIL staged "mass executions" in Iraq's Tikrit: Rights group.
Photograph
and satellite imagery indicate that Islamic State in Iraq and the
Levant (ISIL) insurgents have carried out mass executions in the
northern Iraqi city of Tikrit, Human Rights Watch reported on Friday.
ISIL, radical Islamists who want to re-create a mediaeval-style
caliphate straddling Iraq and Syria, has stormed largely unopposed
across much of northern Iraq, taking cities including Mosul and Tikrit,
seizing border posts with Syria and advancing to within some 100 km (62
mil ..
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Oil Tankers -1.12% 2) Steel -1.04% 3) Gaming -.77%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- ROCK, DG, GLRI, DD, IRM, CBSO, TSCO, FCN, FDO, TEDU, FLS, EAT, REGN, LRN, PBF, TWTR, PM, TOUR, AERI, SODA, VMW, TAHO, VRSN, WMGI and SKM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) HCA 2) TWX 3) LOW 4) DD 5) TGT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DD 2) HPQ 3) NSC 4) PM 5) VRSN
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Hospitals +.79% 2) Oil Service +.69% 3) Networking +.59%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- AMED, MTW, KNDI, OLED, GMCR and PRGS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) BDSI 2) ACAS 3) EXPE 4) AGNC 5) ABBV
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) GPRO 2) KBH 3) NKE 4) AAPL 5) DDD
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Kerry Finds U.S. Vision a Hard Sell Amid Mideast Turmoil. Secretary
of State John Kerry’s Mideast trip this week has been a lesson in the
limits of U.S. power and the difficulty of telling friend from foe in a
land where alliances can shift as readily as desert sands. Shortly
after Kerry tried to promote cooperation among Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite
politicians in Baghdad, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who’s long
enjoyed American support, rejected calls to step
aside and clear a path toward a more inclusive government. A day before
he met Kerry, the president of Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region,
Massoud Barzani, told CNN that the time may have come for the region to
break with Baghdad and pursue independence. In their talks, Barzani was
noncommittal in response to Kerry’s urging that he desist, according to a
U.S. official who spoke anonymously because the discussions were
private. The U.S. has “very little leverage” with key figures in
Iraq, including Maliki, said Faysal Itani, a resident fellow at the
Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East in
Washington. “It is not just a question of credibility, it’s a question
of commitment.” The lack of leverage was evident elsewhere, as well. Less than 24 hours after Kerry appealed to Egyptian President
Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to relax his crackdown on civil liberties, an
Egyptian court sentenced three Al Jazeera English journalists to at
least seven years in prison for endangering national security by
reporting on the Muslim Brotherhood. Then El-Sisi rebuffed U.S. calls to
pardon the journalists.
- Shanghai Developer Said to Suspend Project on Funding Shortage. A closely held Shanghai developer is
said to have suspended construction at a property project due to
a lack of funds, two government officials familiar with the
matter said. Construction at Shanghai Yuehe Real Estate Co.’s mixed-use
project, including residential, office and retail space, in the
city was halted this month and the project was frozen by a
court, according to the people, who asked not to be identified
because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly about the
matter. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000), a medium-sized
Chinese bank, loaned about 240 million yuan ($39 million) to the
220,000 square meter (2.4 million square foot) development in
suburban Jiading district, they said.
- Italian Debt Swells to Rival Germany as Bonds Rally: Euro Credit. As
Italy’s borrowing costs fall to new lows, its debt is rising to the
most ever. The country owed 5 percent more in April compared with a year
earlier, with debt reaching 2.15 trillion euros ($2.9 trillion), Bank of Italy figures show. That
matches the outstanding borrowing of Germany, the largest economy in
Europe and the most of any country on the continent, at the end of last
year, according statistics office Eurostat.
- Asian Stocks Swing as Fed Official Says Rates May Rise.
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional
benchmark index trading near a six-year high, as a Federal Reserve
official said the U.S. may raise interest rates by March. Oracle Corp.
Japan declined 4.2 percent, leading losses among information technology
shares. Ono Pharmaceutical Co. jumped 5.7 percent in Tokyo, leading
health-care shares higher, on a report its melanoma drug will be
approved. Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea’s largest exporter of
consumer
electronics, was the biggest drag on the regional index, falling 1.1
percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) was little changed at 145.49 as
of 9:53 a.m. in Tokyo after dropping as much as 0.2 percent.
- Obama’s Economic Rebound Doesn’t Boost Democratic Allies. Sluggish improvement in living standards among Democrats’ core voters
threatens to hurt the party’s candidates in this year’s congressional
elections. Median household income among all Americans is still
lower than before the recession, which ended five years ago, according
to economic consultant Sentier Research. Key Democratic constituents --
blacks, Hispanics, single women and young people -- have been especially
hard-hit, and analysts say that could make them less energized about
going to the polls. The economic reality is “dampening
enthusiasm among some of the voter groups Democrats need most,” said
Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
- Nike Profit Tops Estimates as North American Sales Gain.
Nike Inc. (NKE), the world’s largest sporting-goods maker, posted
fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates as running and
basketball gear drove sales in North America. Net income in the quarter
ended May 31 rose 5.4 percent to $698 million, or 78 cents a share, from
$662 million, or 73
cents, a year ago, the Beaverton, Oregon-based company said
today in a statement. The average of 26 analysts’ estimates
compiled by Bloomberg was 75 cents.
Nike is benefiting from consumers increasingly buying
athletic apparel and gear for everyday wear, not just when
working out or playing sports.
Wall Street Journal:
- Iraq's Christian Minority Feels Militant Threat. Shrinking Baghdad Flock Prays Behind Blast Wall; Town of Holy Sites Flees Mortars. Surrounded by a blast wall topped with razor-sharp concertina wire,
Our Lady of Salvation Church in downtown Baghdad resembles a fortress
more than a sanctuary. Despite the fortifications, however, those who
worship there are feeling more vulnerable than ever. An appeal
for help in guarding the Syriac Catholic Church this month brought no
volunteers. A ragtag trio of armed men protects the churchyard. At Mass,
guards patted down worshipers and checked their belongings for
concealed weapons and explosives. Only a...
- Credit-Card Lenders Pursue Riskier Borrowers. Cards Issued to Subprime Borrowers Rose 39% in First Quarter.
Credit-card lenders are courting riskier borrowers more aggressively
than they have since the financial crisis in a bid to jolt revenue in a
period of sluggish growth and tight regulation. Banks and other lenders
issued 3.7 million credit cards to so-called subprime borrowers during
the first quarter, a 39% jump from a year earlier and the most...
Fox News:
CNBC:
- GM(GM) recalls 29,019 Chevy Cruze vehicles: DJ. General Motors on Thursday afternoon recalled 29,019 2013-14 Chevrolet
Cruze vehicles because of an airbag issue, Dow Jones reported. The move
comes one day after the company asked North American dealers to stop
selling the cars.
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
Pensions & Investments:
- Under the hood of hedge fund leverage.
One of the key differentiators between hedge funds and other investment
vehicles is the use of leverage. Leverage can be your best friend one
day, and your worst enemy the next.
Reuters:
- DuPont(DD) cuts profit forecast on slow sales in farm business. Chemicals maker
DuPont (DD.N) cut its operating profit forecast for the second quarter
and the full year, saying sales in its agriculture and performance
chemicals units increased at a slower pace than it had expected. The company's shares fell about 4 percent in extended trading.
Telegraph:
- The "Junckernaut" is driving Britain to inevitable separation. Britain’s marital breakdown with much of the rest of the European Union
is fast moving beyond the point of no return, with all other member
states bar Hungary expected publicly to snub David Cameron at the Ypes
summit by appointing Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European
Commission.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 -.75 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 73.75 +.5 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
9:55 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for June is estimated to rise to 82.0 versus a prior estimate of 81.2.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The UK gdp report could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
