Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,019.42 -1.24%

• DJIA 17,511.57 -1.27%

• NASDAQ 4,634.38 -1.48%

• Russell 2000 1,176.65 -.76%

• S&P 500 High Beta 32.39 -2.80%

• Wilshire 5000 21,015.06 -1.17%

• Russell 1000 Growth 946.08 -1.11%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,006.32 -1.29%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 507.61 +.31%

• Solactive US Cyclical 135.80 -2.22%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 979.12 -2.29%

• Transports 8,764.12 -1.06%

• Utilities 640.74 +2.75%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 100.07 +2.13%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.38 -.19%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,174.59 +.18%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 989.44 +.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 230,357 -.27%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -384 -324

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 27.50 +7.51%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 275,480 +2.49%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,627,535 +8.13%

• Total Put/Call .91 -5.21%

• OEX Put/Call .64 -21.95%

• ISE Sentiment 130.0 +71.05%

• NYSE Arms .56 -61.64%

• Volatility(VIX) 20.95 +19.37%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.24 +2.48%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.49 +22.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.06 +6.96%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,463.45 -2.07%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.705 Trillion -.33%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.395 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 46.1 +12.4%

• AAII % Bears 21.5 -22.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 224.24 -.59%

• Crude Oil 48.69 +1.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 135.88 +2.55%

• Natural Gas 3.13 +5.50%

• Heating Oil 166.56 -2.29%

• Gold 1,276.90 +4.37%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 169.02 -4.97%

• Copper 261.70 -5.16%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 310.80 USD/Ton +.80%

• China Iron Ore Spot 68.61 USD/Ton -3.61%

• Lumber 311.90 -2.44%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,204.36 -2.81%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -5.0% -60 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .3062 -5.20%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 124.38 -.77%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.20 -23.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.80 -4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.70 +1.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 48.0% chance of no change, 52.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 1/28

• US Dollar Index 92.52 +.66%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.11 -3.02%

• Yield Curve 135.0 -3.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.84% -10.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.476 Trillion +.37%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.85 -3.78%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 180.0 -1.80%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 26.13 -10.1%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 75.10 +1.70%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 333.29 +.64%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.50 unch.

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 380.52 -1.13%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 536.71 -6.96%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 384.77 +5.27%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.60% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 22.75 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 -4.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 72.99 +4.61% 
• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 749.0 +5.51%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 66.10 -6.63%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 387.55 +2.37%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 90.0 +1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.878 Trillion -1.09%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,029.60 -5.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 298,000 +7,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.66% -7 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 492.0 +49.14%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.4 +1.8 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.80% -80 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.08/gallon -.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 749.0 +5.64%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,059.30 -.13%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 -6.25%

• Rail Freight Carloads 240,947 unch.

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +4.4%

• Utilities +2.7%

• REITs +2.2%

• HMOs +2.1%

• Tobacco +1.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -5.0% 

• Homebuilders -6.4%

• Disk Drives -6.4%

• Oil Tankers -7.5%

• Hospitals -7.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)

• FMI, TLYS, XON, FCE/A, MFLX, CLVS, PSG, MWIV, ALR, NPSP and BBW

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)

• SWN, NEWM, SF, DLTR, RYL, LEN, SCCO, MDC, DHI, PAYC, LGIH, IBKC, BBY, SEMI, THC, CUDA, ACM, TIF, DFRG, SNDK, MDLY, PODD, FIVE, FXCM and KBH

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Commodity Bounce, Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Energy/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.23 -.71%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.23 +.75%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.08 +.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.06 +2.24%

• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +95.24%

• Total Put/Call .92 -9.80%

• NYSE Arms .87 -34.86% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.11 -1.45%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 747.0 +.86%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.68 -1.97%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.13 -2.68%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.84 +2.59%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 387.27 -.58%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 384.77 +1.42%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 22.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 134.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.61/Metric Tonne -.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.20 -4.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.8 -3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.70 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.60 +2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +171 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +59 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukrainian Separatists Attack Airport as Kiev Sends Troops. Pro-Russian militants resumed their assault on Ukrainian government soldiers at Donetsk airport as President Petro Poroshenko sent more troops to the country’s eastern conflict zone. Ukrainian soldiers were holding their positions at the airport, repelling a “full-scale storm” from the separatists, Yuriy Biryukov, a military adviser to Poroshenko, said on his Facebook page today. Separatist leader Oleksandr Zakharchenko said yesterday his forces control 95 percent of the airport, which has become a focal point of the fighting. 

• FXCM Said in Talks With Jefferies for $200 Million Rescue. Jefferies Group is in talks to give FXCM Inc. (FXCM) a cash infusion of about $200 million, people with knowledge of the matter said, extending a lifeline to the currency brokerage hobbled by the Swiss central bank’s decision to let the franc trade freely against the euro. FXCM warned Thursday that client losses due to the Swiss National Bank’s action threatened the broker’s compliance with capital rules. The largest U.S. retail foreign-exchange broker, which handled $1.4 trillion of trades for individuals last quarter, said it was owed $225 million by clients.

• Short Sellers Now Taking Aim at Emerging-Market Bonds. The combination of plunging commodity prices and a soaring dollar is drawing short sellers to emerging-market debt. The two trends are battering the finances of many developing nations, squeezing export revenue and forcing them to rustle up more local currency to repay foreign debt denominated in dollars. Growing numbers of short sellers are betting this squeeze will keep driving down emerging-market bonds: Short interest on the $4.1 billion iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF has almost tripled since November to 21 percent of shares outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Markit Group Ltd. The fund has lost 2.2 percent since the end of October as developing-nation sovereign yields increased an average 0.45 percentage point. “Widening credit spreads in general and the continued plunge in oil prices are inducing people to want to take more short positions in EMB,” Peter Lannigan, a Stamford, Connecticut-based emerging markets strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC, said in a telephone interview this week. “Investors have traditionally looked at emerging markets as a commodity play.” 

• UBS’s Richest Clients Seen Flocking to Dollars After Swiss Franc Shock. (video) UBS Group AG (UBSG), the largest Swiss bank, said its wealthiest clients will be attracted to U.S. dollars after Switzerland roiled markets by scrapping the franc’s cap. Private-banking customers are concerned a stronger franc will hurt Switzerland’s economy and the businesses they own, Simon Smiles, Zurich-based chief investment officer for ultra-high-net-worth individuals at UBS, said on Friday in an interview. Clients worldwide have yet to decide on whether to change currency allocations, he said. The bank cut its growth forecast for Switzerland and predicts the country will slip into deflation this year.

• ECB Weighing QE Through National Central Banks, Spiegel Says. The plan, which tries to avoid a transfer of risk between member states, envisages purchases in line with the ECB’s capital key, with a limit of 20 percent to 25 percent on each country’s debt, Spiegel said in an article published today, without saying where it got the information. Greece will be excluded from the program because its bonds don’t fulfill the necessary quality criteria, the magazine said.

• Deutsche Bank, Barclays Seen Losing Millions Amid Swiss Rout. Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc (BARC), two of the world’s largest currency dealers, were among the first banks to suffer losses after the Swiss central bank’s surprise decision to abandon a cap on the franc, people with knowledge of the matter said. Deutsche Bank lost $150 million on Thursday amid an unexpected surge in the Swiss franc, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the figure hasn’t been made public. Barclays’s losses were less than $100 million, another person said. The losses are still being calculated, and may spread to other asset classes, including equities, one of the people said. 

• The Swiss Just Made Things Worse for the Euro. The euro is shaping to be the biggest casualty of Switzerland’s decision to scrap its currency cap. Soon after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly ended its three-year policy of keeping the franc weaker than 1.20 per euro, bearish bets on Europe’s common currency soared. While setting a record low versus the franc yesterday, the euro also plunged 3.5 percent against a basket of 10 developed-nation peers, the most since its 1999 debut, and reached an 11-year low against the dollar today.

• Europe Stocks Rise to Highest Since 2008 as Energy Shares Climb. European stocks rose to their highest level since 2008 as gains by oil producers outweighed a slump in Swiss shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 1.1 percent to 352.4 at the close of trading, after earlier losing as much as 0.9 percent.

• Oil Heads for Longest Weekly Losing Streak Since 1986. Oil advanced, paring an eighth weekly decline, as the International Energy Agency lowered forecasts for supplies from outside OPEC and said prices could recover. West Texas Intermediate crude rose as much as 4.7 percent in New York. The U.S. benchmark crude grade is heading for a loss of 0.6 percent this week, capping the longest run of weekly declines since March 1986. Non-OPEC oil producers will boost output this year at a slower rate than previously forecast, aiding a recovery in crude prices, the IEA said in its monthly market report.

• Citigroup(C) Said to Lose More Than $150 Million on Currency Swings. Citigroup Inc., the world’s biggest currencies dealer, lost more than $150 million after the Swiss central bank decided to let the franc trade freely against the euro, according to a person briefed on the matter. The losses occurred on the New York-based bank’s trading desks and aren’t tied to its relationships with FXCM Inc. and other retail trading platforms, said the person, who asked for anonymity because the information hasn’t been disclosed publicly. 

• Venture Funding of U.S. Startups Last Year Was Most Since 2000. The money spigots for U.S. startups opened last year to their widest since the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000. Venture capitalists pumped $48.3 billion into U.S. startups in 2014, according to data today from the National Venture Capital Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers, the most since investors piled $105 billion into closely held companies in 2000. The 2014 total was up 61 percent from $30 billion in 2013 and was more than double the $20.4 billion invested in 2009.

MarketWatch.com:

• Broker reassurances about Swiss exposure may be a red flag for the rest of us. 

• Jim Chanos downbeat on Exxon(XOM), Caterpillar(CAT), Intel(INTC).

Fox News:

• Police in Belgium, France, and Germany make arrests in latest anti-terror raids. (video)
  Dozens of terror suspects were arrested in Belgium, France, and Germany early Friday, a day after Belgian authorities said that they halted a plot to attack police officers by mere hours.
  Eric Van der Sypt, a Belgian federal magistrate, told a news conference Friday in Brussels that 13 people had been detained in Belgium in connection with the plot, with another two arrested in neighboring France. He added that a dozen searches had led to the discovery of four military-style weapons including Kalashnikov assault rifles.

CNBC:

• China shadow banking chills stimulus hopes. "A surge in shadow bank credit – entrusted loans, trust loans, banker's acceptances, corporate bonds and non-financial enterprises' domestic equity – was responsible for December's considerably larger than expected increase in aggregate financing," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING in a note on Friday, noting that shadow bank credit exceeded new yuan-denominated loans for the first time in 2014.

• Market cools for million-dollar homes. Sales of homes for $1 million or more fell 20 percent in the fourth quarter compared with those in the third quarter and posted their worst year-on-year growth since 2011, according to the CNBC Luxury Real-Estate Report, conducted by Redfin, a real-estate brokerage and research firm.

ZeroHedge:

• What Really Happened At The SNB Yesterday: One Person's Take.

• US Oil Rig Count Collapses To Over 4 Year Low (as Production Hits Record High). (graph)

• Greek Debt Will Not Be Included In Bond-Buying Plan; ECB's Knot Warns QE "Distorts Markets"

• Swiss Stocks Slump For Worst Week Since Lehman, Bond Yields Negative To 12 Years. (graph)

• EURUSD Tumbles Below 1.15, Near 12-Year Lows. (graph)

• "Some Folks Were Lying?" Medicaid Chief Tavenner 'Steps Down' After Obamacare "Error".

• Goldman(GS) Tumbles On Worst FICC Revenue Since Lehman, Average Employee Comp Drops To 2012 Levels. (graph)

• Consumer Prices Tumble Most In 6 Years, Core Inflation Misses. (graph)

• Industrial Production Drops By Most In 11 Months (After Biggest Surge Since 2010). (graph)

• Gold Hits $1270 - 4 Month Highs. (graph)

• Despite Dismal Retail Sales, US Consumer Are The Most Exuberant In 10 Years. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Foreign-Exchange Brokers Are Going Bankrupt In The Swiss Franc's Surge.

• The Head Of Russia's Largest Private Oil Company Thinks Oil Could Go To $25.

Reuters:

• ECB's Coeure says QE must be big to be efficient -paper. Any programme of quantitative easing must be big to be efficient, European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said on Friday in a newspaper interview. "For it to be efficient, it has to be big," Coeure told the Irish Times newspaper. "How big is big enough? This has to be an informed decision based on what we know are the transmission channels."

Financial Times: 

• ECB set to bow to German pressure over QE. The European Central Bank is set to unveil a programme of mass bond buying next week to save the eurozone from deflation, but has bowed to German pressure to ensure that its taxpayers are not liable for any losses incurred on other countries’ debt.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.49%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gaming -.61% 2) Airlines -.46% 3) I-Banks -.32%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• IBKR, PCP, CMGE, CS, AAVL, LQ, BJRI, BIS, CVGW, NORD, OMG, NMBL, CAF, ALGN, TDY, DFS, RGC, GEF, SWIR, LFC, TNDM, SCOR, AJG, TGT and PNR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) SCHW 3) C 4) FSLR 5) IYR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PCP 2) BBY 3) GE 4) C 5) ALV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.77%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.82% 2) Oil Service +2.96% 3) Energy +1.96%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DEPO, HZNP, GG, ATVI, ABX, BP, SLB, TSRA, DEPO and KITE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VMW 2) ZQK 3) MYL 4) PG 5) MAT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LNT 2) SUNE 3) GWR 4) FAST 5) APC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Casualties From Swiss Shock Spread From New York to New Zealand. Casualties mounted from the Swiss currency shock as a U.S. online brokerage said client debts threatened to push it out of compliance with capital rules and a New Zealand-based dealer went out of business. FXCM Inc., a New York-based company that offers foreign exchange trading services over the Internet, said clients suffered significant losses when the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon the franc’s cap against the euro roiled global markets. Global Brokers NZ Ltd. said the impact on its business is forcing it to shut down. “Due to unprecedented volatility in EUR/CHF pair after the Swiss National Bank announcement this morning, clients experienced significant losses, FXCM said in a statement dated Jan. 15. That ‘‘generated negative equity balances owed to FXCM of approximately $225 million.’’

• SNB Officials Eating Words Risk Lasting Investor Indigestion. Switzerland’s central bank officials have just eaten their words, risking lingering indigestion in financial markets. Just three days after Swiss National Bank (SNBN) Vice President Jean-Pierre Danthine called the franc cap a “pillar” of monetary policy, the SNB yesterday dropped the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 per euro. The shock abandonment of the SNB’s primary policy of the past three years may now leave investors warier of taking officials’ words at face value, according to economists including Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin AG in Zurich. By scrapping one tool, the franc cap, SNB President Thomas Jordan risks blunting the effects of another. “The SNB’s credibility has suffered a bit,” said Junius, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund. “Statements will get read in the future with a bit more caution. Verbal interventions will hardly work any more.” 

• Russia Seen Keeping Option of Capital Controls If Outflows Mount. Russian capital outflows probably doubled last year and the government may resort to currency restrictions if the pace doesn’t ease in 2015, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Capital controls are likely if private money leaves at a $240 billion annualized rate in 2015, or $60 billion this quarter, according to the median estimate of 14 economists. Outflows more than tripled to $48 billion in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, pushing last year’s total to $133.3 billion, according to the survey. That’s the most since in 2008 and compares with $61 billion in 2013. Russia last had inflows in 2007, according to central bank data.

• Ukraine Faces Default Specter as Russia Puts Neighbor on Notice. The economic pressure being applied by Russia is threatening to push Ukraine to the brink of default, putting the burden on the U.S. and its allies to keep the war-ravaged nation afloat. The risk of Russia calling a $3 billion bond payment, which Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev this week said will “soon” be decided, is pushing the government in Kiev toward debt-restructuring talks with other creditors, according to economists from London to New York. Such a request by the Kremlin would trigger a sovereign default for Ukraine, said Regis Chatellier, a strategist at Societe Generale SA (GLE) in London. 

• This is Asia's 'Undisputed Loser' From Oil and Fiscal Cuts are Looming. The plunge in oil prices that spurred a currency crisis in Russia and endangered Venezuela’s leadership is also roiling markets in Malaysia, a net oil exporter in Southeast Asia. Economists say it’s not time to panic, yet. For one thing, Malaysia’s oil and gas products account for about 22 percent of its exports, compared with more than 70 percent for Russia’s energy. For another, Prime Minister Najib Razak is buying some fiscal breathing room by abolishing decades-old energy subsidies and introducing a 6 percent goods and services tax in April, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. That would allow Najib to keep close to his budget goals even as declining investor confidence pushed the currency this week to its lowest level since April 2009 and boosted the cost of insuring the nation’s debt.

• Asian Stocks Slide With U.S. Futures, Bonds Climb on SNB. Asian shares dropped with U.S. index futures as the market turmoil sparked by Switzerland abandoning the franc’s cap extended into a second day. Sovereign bonds rallied and gold traded near a four-month high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1 percent by 12:15 p.m. in Tokyo, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slid 0.7 percent following a five-day drop. The franc was near parity with the euro after trading at 1.20096 per euro immediately before the Swiss National Bank announcement. Yields (GACGB10) on 10-year Australian and Japanese debt declined to records. Copper is heading for its biggest weekly loss in three years, while oil is set for the longest weekly losing streak since 1986.

• The Cruel Oil-Market Math Conspiring Against ETF Bulls. The $2.3 billion that has poured into funds that track oil since December would seem like a logical enough investment. After crude dropped about 50 percent to a five-year low, the thinking goes, prices are due for a rebound. There’s just one problem. And it’s a big problem. 

• Oil Heads for Longest Weekly Losing Streak Since 1986 Amid Glut. Oil headed for the longest run of weekly declines since March 1986 as OPEC forecast weaker demand for its crude, adding to signs that a global supply glut that spurred last year’s price collapse may persist. Futures swung between gains and losses in New York and are set for an eighth weekly drop. Demand for oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will average 28.8 million barrels a day, the lowest in 12 years, the group said in a report on Jan. 15. Venezuela, one of OPEC’s 12 members, is seeking to coordinate a plan to calm prices, according to President Nicolas Maduro.

• Copper Poised for Biggest Weekly Fall in Three Years After Rout. Copper headed for the biggest weekly drop in more than three years after a rout driven by lower energy costs and fears that demand will weaken in China, the world’s largest metals user. The metal fell 7.8 percent this week after tumbling to the lowest since 2009. Copper is the worst performing metal so far this year on the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which tumbled to the lowest in 12 years this week amid the World Bank cutting its forecast for global growth, citing economic slowdown in Europe and China. Industrial production in the U.S., the second-biggest consumer, fell 0.1 percent in December from the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey before data due Friday. 

• Judge Puts BP's(BP) Top Fine at $13.7 Billion for Gulf Oil Disaster; U.S. Sought $18 Billion. BP Plc (BP) faces a maximum fine of $13.7 billion after a U.S. judge ruled that the company dumped 3.2 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 -- about a quarter less than the U.S. had calculated. The government’s 4.2 million barrel estimate of the spill size was rejected today by U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier, decreasing the potential maximum fine from $18 billion. BP estimated the flow at 2.45 million barrels. The maximum possible fine would still be the largest U.S. pollution penalty.

• Schlumberger Records Charge, Cuts Jobs After Oil Collapse. Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), the world’s biggest oilfield-services company, took a $1.77 billion charge in the fourth quarter as it prepares for an “uncertain environment” after the collapse in oil prices. Net income dropped to $302 million, or 23 cents a share, from $1.66 billion, or $1.26, a year earlier, Houston- and Paris-based Schlumberger said in a statement today. The company will cut about 9,000 jobs, 7.1 percent of its workforce, as it anticipates lower spending by customers in 2015. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Belgium Antiterror Raid Leaves Two Suspects Dead. Move Disrupts Imminent Terrorist Plot, Belgian Authorities Say. Belgian police killed two people in a firefight on Thursday evening, disrupting what authorities called an imminent terrorist plot just a week after Islamist extremists set Europe on edge with massacres in Paris.

• Satellite Images Show Boko Haram Massacre in Nigeria. (pic) Amnesty International Says Aerial Photos Reveal Scale of Destruction From This Month’s Attacks.

• How Spending Sapped the Global Recovery. The Obama-Lew lobby is urging Europe to ramp up stimulus spending. Emerging markets would beg to differ.

Fox News: 

• Obama takes heat for terror approach, Gitmo releases as threat spreads. (video) The Obama administration drew fire Thursday from a growing list of frustrated lawmakers over the release of more Guantanamo detainees -- this time Yemeni terrorists to the volatile Arabian Peninsula -- as concerns mount over the spreading threat of Islamic terrorism, and the administration's refusal to publicly call out Islam's radical elements. The Department of Defense announced Wednesday that five Yemeni terror suspects held at Guantanamo Bay were released -- with four of the five heading for Oman, Yemen's neighbor. The release comes despite knowledge that one of the two assassins who carried out the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris traveled to Yemen in 2011, and met with the radical American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki.

CNBC:

• Why oil is in more trouble than you think. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• The Greek Bank Runs Have Begun: Two Greek Banks Request Emergency Liquidity Assistance.

• Swissnado Stuns Stocks, Bonds & Bullion Bid. (graph)

• Another Turkish Shocker: "Netanyahu And The French Terrorists Are The Same", PM Says.

• US Macro Data Surprises Are The Worst In Over 10 Years, Post-Thanksgiving. (graph)

• Ukraine President Signs Mobilization Decree: 50,000 To Be Drafted.

• 2 FX Brokers Suffer "Significant Losses" After SNB Surprise, "In Breach Of Regulatory Capital Requirements".

• Why Our Central Planners Are Breeding Failure.

Business Insider:

• Chinese President Xi Jinping Just Took His War On Corruption To A Whole New Level.

• This Chart Makes It Look Like It's All Over In Venezuela.

• Al Sharpton Calls For Emergency Meeting To Address 'Appalling' All-White Oscar Nominees. "The movie industry is like the Rocky Mountains, the higher you get, the whiter it gets," Sharpton quipped in a statement released later in the afternoon.

• Trust Is The Lynchpin Of The Capital Markets — The Swiss National Bank Just Broke It.

• Macau's Casinos Just Took Another Huge Hit.

• Intel's(INTC) Mobile Group Lost More Than $4 Billion Last Year.

Reuters:

• Greece euro exit would be 'extremely dangerous' - ECB's Nowotny. A Greek exit from the euro zone would be an "extremely dangerous" move for the country and a danger for the rest of Europe as well, European Central Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny said. Greek leftist opposition party Syriza holds a steady lead over ruling conservatives with little over a week of campaigning left for Prime Antonis Samaras to try to close the gap before a snap election on Jan. 25. Financial markets are nervous a Syriza victory could trigger a standoff with EU/IMF lenders that results in Greece leaving the euro zone.

• Intel(INTC) forecasts disappointing revenue; shares fall. Chipmaker Intel Corp forecast revenue and gross margins for this quarter that disappointed investors, sending its shares down 2.7 percent in extended trading. 

• U.S.-based stock funds post $4.1 bln outflows in week -Lipper.

• Target's(TGT) exit from Canada to pressure commercial property market. Target Corp's abrupt decision to withdraw from Canada is troubling news for many mall owners, as the most obvious potential buyer of property assets - Wal-Mart - is expected to cherry-pick from Target's 133 locations. 

• Hedge funds, speculators face big losses on Swiss franc rally. Currency speculators and global macro hedge funds with large short positions in the Swiss franc are staring massive losses in the face after the Swiss National Bank shocked markets on Thursday by removing a three-year-old cap on the currency.

AFP:

• Ukraine warns of Russian military build-up. Ukraine on Thursday renewed accusations of a Russian military build up on its border and approved fresh troop mobilisations as a wave of violence threatened all-out conflict in the country's war-torn east. A national day of mourning was held for 13 people killed on Tuesday when a rocket exploded near a commuter bus travelling towards the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, the worst loss of civilian life since a September truce that only partially halted the violence.

Financial Times:

• Exporters fear Swiss franc ‘tsunami’. The Swiss federation of trade unions said the move would put “massive” pressure on jobs and wages among exporters, while Nick Hayek, chief executive of Swatch Group, one of Switzerland’s leading manufacturers, said: “Jordan is not only the name of the SNB president, but also of a river . . . and today’s SNB action is a tsunami — for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country.” 

• China funds bring Chaos to metals markets. Shanghai Chaos Investment Co is one of a coterie of funds exercising a growing impact on global metals markets, where the price of everything from aluminium drinks cans to lead batteries is set.

FAZ:

• Merkel Says Russia Sanctions to Remain in Force. German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly opposes lifting sanctions against Russia, citing interview. Sanctions aren't an end in themselves and can only be lifted if the reasons for them have been eliminated. The annexation of Crimea and events in eastern Ukraine are flagrant violations of international law "shared values". Tells German critics of sanctions it must be clear you have to react when a common understanding of territorial integrity is no longer respected. Political isolation of Moscow will continue and she doesn't count on President Vladimir Putin's participation in the G-7 summit in Bavaria in June.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.50% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +4.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 75.0 -.75 basis point .

• S&P 500 futures -.75%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (SCHW)/.24

• (CMA)/.77

• (GS)/4.32

• (PNC)/1.73

• (STI)/.81

• (WIT)/8.78

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The CPI for December is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.3% decline in November.

• The CPI Ex Food and Energy for December is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in November. 

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production for December is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +1.3% gain in November.

• Capacity Utilization for December is estimated to fall to 79.9% versus 80.1% in November.

• Manufacturing Production for December is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.1% gain in November. 

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for January is estimated to rise to 94.1 versus 93.6 in December.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for November.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Eurzone Final CPI and the (CAMP) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.