Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.30%.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -8.8% 2) Oil Tankers -7.0% 3) Steel -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PF, SHLX, AYA, SAGE, KKD, WPXP, MRKT, IMDZ, LL, GIII, SNX, NEOG, HOFT, CIT, AKRX, SUI, NKE, USLV, FRED, FINL, CTAS, FNV, ASEI, RHT, ABX and RHT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWT 2) RHT 3) RCL 4) NKE 5) EWJ

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HFC 2) SCOR 3) PBR 4) ATI 5) LL 

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 

• Mid-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) HMOs +1.0% 2) Utilities +.6% 3) Hospitals +.6% 

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• CPXX, VA, IPHI, FRAN, FIVE, CNC, VRX, HQY, HZNP, AIR and HNT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) BAX 2) CTSH 3) POM 4) RSX 5) LC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) FIVE 2) MRK 3) YUM 4) TGT 5) VA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 25.7% of Issues Advancing, 71.0% Declining
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 45.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.5%
• Vix 14.5 +2.3%
• Total Put/Call .93 -13.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.53 +19.1%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.5 +.75 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.5 +.25 basis point. 
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.85 +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (FRED)/.09
• (GIS)/.62
• (WOR)/.53
• (FUL)/.39
• (KBH)/.11
• (OXM)/1.05 
• (PVH)/1.46 

Economic Releases  
10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for February are estimated to rise to 510K versus 494K in January. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,480,000 barrels versus a +1,317,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,135,400 barrels versus a -747,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -745,000 barrels versus a -1,135,000 barrel decline prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.1% versus a -.1% decline prior. 

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking, Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the (SBUX) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Terrorism Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.62 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.41 -.17%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.21 -.29%

• ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -42.3%

• Total Put/Call 1.06 +9.28%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +27.17% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.34 +3.58%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,299.0 +10.01%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.47 +1.79%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.17 +.91%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.94 +1.09%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 277.48 -.65%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 125.90 -.46%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 33.0 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.85 +.28%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 unch.
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.36/Metric Tonne -.78%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.10 -1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.80 +12.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.50 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% -1.0 basis point
• 46.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 53.6% chance at July 27 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.1%.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.6% 2) Road & Rail -1.1% 3) Agriculture -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• GIII, AGRO, GMED, CAMP, DF, MFRM, CNL, INFN, IMAX, STON, HOT, BIS, POM, SRPT, LPG, CUK, PUK, TOUR, IPAR, DEO, MAR, CTRP, DAL, GGG, AFOP and CAMP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DXJ 2) USB 3) MAR 4) BPT 5) XBI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MFRM 2) CAMP 3) AAL 4) JCI 5) ESRX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume