Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Terrorism Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +1.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.62 +.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.41 -.17%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.21 -.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -42.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +9.28%
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 +27.17
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.34 +3.58%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,299.0 +10.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.47 +1.79%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.17 +.91%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.94 +1.09%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 277.48 -.65%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 125.90 -.46%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 33.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.85 +.28%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .30% unch.
  • Yield Curve 105.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.36/Metric Tonne -.78%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.10 -1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.80 +12.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.50 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% -1.0 basis point
  • 46.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 53.6% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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