Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Metals & Mining/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.21 -9.68%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.99 +.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.92 +1.97%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.79 -1.97%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +37.93%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +4.49%
  • NYSE Arms 1.50 +51.58
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.53 -2.53%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,765.0 +1.93%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.08 +1.85%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.47 +.73%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.36 -2.45%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 322.50 -2.71%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 125.73 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 30.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 +3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.61 +.54%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 106.0 +6.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.57/Metric Tonne +1.30%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.60 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.20 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% +7.0 basis points
  • 9.6% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 37.4% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -110 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -95 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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