Thursday, March 24, 2016

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +5.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.76 +.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.74 +.34%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.55 +.33%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 +28.57%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +1.94%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -46.3% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.29 +2.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,447.0 +8.04%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.76 +4.25%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.21 +.24%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.17 +.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 297.50 +2.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.41 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.0 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 33.50 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.16 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 103.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.37/Metric Tonne -2.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.70 -7.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.90 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.40 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% -2.0 basis points
  • 39.3% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 50.2% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -167 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -83 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +49 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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