Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
Bloomberg:
- Shadow Lending for Chinese Home Down Payments Prompts Crackdown. The lending platform of his real estate agency, E-House China Holdings Ltd., is one of China’s hundreds of P2P lenders allowing home buyers to seek down-payment loans online. Total P2P borrowing for home deposits reached 924 million yuan in January, more than three times the level of last July, according to Shanghai-based data provider Yingcan Group. Lending for property down payments, a phenomenon all but unheard of a year ago, has now prompted plans by the government to halt such borrowing. The response underscores the stakes as shadow-banking leverage creeps into China’s housing market -- a development similar to the margin financing that fueled last year’s stock market bubble, but with potentially more damaging consequences. “Down-payment financing would definitely cause risks to the financial system, similar to the subprime crisis in the U.S.," said Hu Xingdou, an economics professor at the Beijing Institute of Technology. "China has learned a lesson from the U.S. subprime crisis. The Chinese government understands that they have to solve problems like housing and overcapacity. At the same time, they can’t bring further risks to the financial system, as the banks already have a lot of bad debt.”
- China's P2P Property Lending Growth Six Times Faster Than Banks. Peer-to-peer lending for property in China grew more than six times faster than loans extended through banks last year as borrowers took advantage of a less-regulated financing market to take part in the nation’s real estate boom. Property-related loans handled by the online platforms climbed 163 percent to 115.5 billion yuan ($18 billion) in 2015, according to Shanghai-based researcher Yingcan Group. That’s faster than the 21 percent increase in outstanding mortgages held by the country’s banks during the same period, central bank data showed.
- Abenomics Seen Stalling With Toyota Pushback Against Raise. To understand what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is up against in trying to spring Japan from the deflationary trap stunting its economy, consider the pushback by its most prominent industrialist Akio Toyoda at the wage negotiating table this month. Toyota Motor Corp. had told its union last week that it would be difficult to increase monthly base wages even by 1,000 yen ($9) -- about the price of a bowl of ramen noodles -- because global conditions were harsh, its workers were already relatively well-paid and there’s been little inflation in Japan, according to people familiar with the negotiations and a labor group newsletter reviewed by Bloomberg News. “The virtuous economic cycle that Abe has sought isn’t working well,” said Hiroaki Muto, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center Co. in Tokyo. “With Japan’s economic outlook dimming, company management can’t be aggressive about wage hikes that increase fixed costs.”
- Kuroda Says Minus 0.5% Rate Is Theoretically Possible for Japan. The Bank of Japan has quite a lot of room to cut its key interest rate further and theoretically it could go to minus 0.5 percent, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in parliament Wednesday. While the BOJ kept policy unchanged on Tuesday, Kuroda underscored in a press conference a readiness to move on any of three fronts: a reduction in the present minus 0.1 percent rate, an acceleration in boosting the monetary base or an expansion in purchases of riskier assets. Questioned by a lawmaker in parliament Wednesday, he agreed that it would be theoretically possible to lower the rate to minus 0.5 percent.
- South Korea Unemployment Rate Jumps to Six-Year High at 4.1%. South Korea’s unemployment rate rose to a six-year high last month as more college graduates failed to land jobs amid slowing economic growth. Distortions from the lunar new year holiday were also a seasonal factor behind the rise. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate climbed to 4.1 percent in February, the highest since February 2010, Statistics Korea said on Wednesday. The agency said the youth unemployment rate for those ages 15-29 was 12.5 percent, the highest on record, with college graduates rushing to join the workforce after graduation.
- Risk of Dollar Rally Seen on Fed Outcome as Rate Rise Odds Climb. Risks are skewed toward a rally in the dollar, National Australia Bank Ltd. and Commonwealth Bank of Australia said, as the currency fails to keep up with increasing speculation the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates again by June. A gauge of the dollar has slumped 3.7 percent since rising to its highest level in data starting from 2004 in January. That’s even as the probability of a rate increase by the Fed’s June 14-15 meeting rose to 54 percent in futures markets, from as low as 2 percent on Feb. 11. The two-year Treasury note yield has climbed about 31 basis points in that time. Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues have an opportunity to clarify where they stand on the outlook for policy when a two-day meeting wraps up today. “The rates market has increasingly come to the view that it’s been overly complacent, and yet the dollar is still pretty much flat on its back,” said Ray Attrill, co-head of currency strategy at NAB in Sydney. “If whatever the Fed says overnight at least underpins the grind higher we’ve seen in U.S. yields, then I’m on the lookout for that being reflected in a somewhat stronger dollar.”
- Asian Stocks Drop Before Fed on Commodity Selloff, Stronger Yen. Asian stocks fell before a Federal Reserve policy decision as a selloff in commodities weighed on material shares and a stronger yen hit Japanese exporters. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4 percent to 126.42 as of 9 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index lost 0.7 percent after the yen gained 0.6 percent against the dollar Tuesday, as global stocks retreated with crude and emerging-market assets.
- March 15 Primaries: Live Coverage. Kasich Wins Ohio, Trump Takes Florida.
- Valeant(VRX) Jolts Investors Again Over Earnings Goals, Debt. Shares of the drug maker plunged more than 51% after it said it is pulling back from its strategy. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., having struggled for months to reclaim investor favor, Tuesday offered a financial outlook worse than many feared, prompting an exodus from the stock that cut the market value of the company in half. Shares of the drug maker plunged more than 51% after it said it is pulling back from its strategy, won’t meet its previous earnings goals and may default on its debt, deepening further a...
- 2016 Election Coverage: Live Blog.
- Fox News projects: Kasich, Clinton win Ohio primaries. (video) The Republican presidential race was rocked Tuesday night as John Kasich followed through and won his home state of Ohio, Fox News projects — while Marco Rubio bowed out after losing to Donald Trump in Florida. Fox News also can project that Hillary Clinton will defeat Bernie Sanders’ in Ohio’s Democratic primary. This is in addition to the former secretary of state’s projected wins in North Carolina and Florida, completing her sweep of the Southern state contests. For Kasich, his Ohio win was his first of the campaign and will deliver him all of the Buckeye State’s 66 delegates.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
8:30 am EST
Zero Hedge:
- Kuroda U-Turn & PBOC Devaluation Send Yen, Yuan Tumbling In Early Asia Trading. (graph)
- China Freight Index Collapses To Fresh Record Low. (graph)
- These Are The Energy Bonds Most Likely To Default In The Next Six Months.
- JPMorgan(JPM) Corners LME Aluminum Market, Leading To Strange "Price Anomalies".
- "Cheerleader" Fed Loses Credibility: Big Funds No Longer Trust The 'Dot Plot'. (graph)
- Oil Pops After Lower-Than-Expected Crude Build. (graph)
- US Recession Data Signals It's A Very Short Road To Capital Controls.
- Margin Debt Flashes Red As The Fed Cometh. (graph)
- The Biggest Threat To The S&P In The Next Month: "Only Buyer Keeping This Market Alive" Stops Buying. (graph)
- S&P Loses Key Technical Support As Bears Battered Brazil & Black-Gold. (graph)
- HARRY DENT: 'The greatest crash of your life is just ahead'.
- 'Crazy Megyn!': Donald Trump goes off on Megyn Kelly and Fox News in tweetstorm as results pour in.
- 'Do not give into fear': Watch Marco Rubio's concession speech. (video)
- All those startups that promised to spoil you rotten are starting to fail.
- Chipotle says its sales still stink, stock falls 5%.
- Corporate America's profit outlook keeps getting worse. (graph)
- More and more companies are massaging their earnings.
- This interactive map of China’s power in the South China Sea is a wake-up call to us all.
- Rubio’s Exit Is the First Step to Cruz Beating Trump, One on One. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from March 3 to 6 shows the same dynamic: In the four-way contest, Trump led with 30 percent, followed by Cruz at 27 percent, Kasich at 22 percent and Rubio at 20 percent. With Kasich and Rubio removed, the contest again flips, with Cruz besting Trump 57 percent to 40 percent. In other words, while Trump gains 10 points, Cruz gains a stunning 30 points with a Rubio and Kasich withdrawal. In the wake of the Rubio withdrawal, the road map is clear: If Kasich truly worries over the possibility of Trump winning the nomination, he should withdraw now, and let Cruz take on Trump one-on-one.
- EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil stocks, currency slump on Lula cabinet nod.
- Oracle(ORCL) profit beats expectations, boosts share buyback by $10 billion. Oracle Corp reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit as its cloud business gained traction, and said it was boosting its stock buyback program by $10 billion. The company's shares rose about 4 percent in extended trading.
- US inflation rears its ugly head as global cycle nears danger zone. The trigger for the next global recession is at last coming into view after a series of loud distractions and false alarms. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's gauge of "sticky-price" inflation in the US soared to a post-Lehman peak of 3pc in February. This index is a 'pure' measure of core inflation - the underlying story once the noise is stripped out.
- Asian equity indices are -.50% +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.0 +1.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 67.0 +2.0 basis points.
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.22 -.03%.
- S&P 500 futures +.08%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ATU)/.21
- (CTRP)/.06
- (FDX)/2.35
- (GES)/.59
- (MLHR)/.39
- (JNL)/.59
- (SLW)/.13
- (WSM)/1.58
8:30 am EST
- Housing Starts for February are estimated to rise to 1150K versus 1099K in January.
- Building Permits for February are estimated to fall to 1200K versus 1202K in Janaury.
- The CPI MoM for February is estimated to fall -.2% versus unch. in January.
- The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in January.
- Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for February.
9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for February is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.9% gain in January.
- Capacity Utilization for February is estimated to fall to 76.9% versus 77.1% in January.
- Manufacturing Production for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in January.
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +3,181,820 barrels versus a +3,880,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,472,730 barrels versus a -4,526,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -554,550 barrels versus a -1,119,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.04% versus a +.8% gain prior.
- The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate between .25-.5%.
- None of note
- The Fed's Yellen speaking, BoJ Minutes, UK Jobless Claims, Australia Employment report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (SCOR) investor day and the (EXPE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
No comments:
Post a Comment