Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Quarter-End Window-Dressing, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.49 -2.49%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.19 +.10%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.40 -1.72%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.72 -.44%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 +3.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 +14.14%
  • NYSE Arms .63 -54.56% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.63 -3.54%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,472.0 +2.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.02 -5.30%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.63 -1.16%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 55.40 -2.64%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 283.40 -2.51%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.59 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 40.5 +6.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.19 +.64%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 107.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $54.18/Metric Tonne -1.69%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -33.60 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.20 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65% +3.0 basis points
  • 22.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 32.9% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +197 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +114 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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