Thursday, March 17, 2016

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.40 -3.94%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.84 -.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.75 +.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.32 -1.39%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +22.4%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -18.68%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -40.4% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.18 -2.86%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,894.0 +7.71%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.38 -4.4%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.72 -2.63%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.26 -4.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 304.23 -4.59%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 125.92 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 34.25 +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.81 +1.55%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 104.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.09/Metric Tonne +4.70%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.3 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.20 +4.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.50 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59% +1.0 basis point
  • 38.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 45.9% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -141 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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