Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +4.9% 2) Healthcare Providers +2.1% 3) Semis +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PLBY, BCRX, WRI, CTRN, KYMR, DELL, DASH, GATO, PPD, SYNH, AMD, ZNTL, XLNX, NVDA, BALY, NVCR, OKTA, APAM, TBIO, AHH, FCX, CUE, VMW, PRAH, IMUX, RPAI, PAR, ANF, UNH, USAC, TMO, BDX and PGR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KDP 2) IEF 3) UNH 4) XME 5) AAP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVDA 2) UNH 3) UPS 4) TMO 5) CRWD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -20.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 55.4% of Issues Advancing, 41.0% Declining
• 264 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 88.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,198.0 -43.0 points
• Vix 16.8 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .74 -6.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.7 +128.7%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• China Huarong Showdown Reveals Beijing’s Tougher Stance on Risk.  
• PBOC Liquidity Operation to Offer Clues to China’s Cash Squeeze.
• Asia Stocks Look Mixed After U.S. Slips off Record: Markets Wrap. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  
• U.S. Oil Demand Picks Up Steam as Economic Expansion Quickens.
• CDC’s J&J Panel Ends Without Vote; Japan Measures: Virus Update.
• Powell Says U.S. Entering Faster Growth, Though Virus Spike Remains a Risk.  
• Goldman, JPMorgan Traders Show the Reddit Crowd How It’s Done.  
• First Inverse Bitcoin ETF to Debut for Betting on Crypto Plunge.
• Autonomous Truck Firm TuSimple IPO Said to Raise $1.35 Billion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Coinbase Fetches $85 Billion Value in Trading Debut.
• When CEOs Zoom for Democrats.
• Down With Big Business, Again.
• Where Are All the Rental Cars?
• How Amazon Strong-Arms Partners Using Its Power Across Multiple Businesses.
• Fed Will Begin Reducing Bond Purchases ‘Well Before’ Raising Interest Rates, Powell Says.
• Thermo Fisher Nears Deal to Buy PPD for More Than $15 Billion.
• Biden Administration Proposes Reversing Ban on Federal Funds for Clinics That Refer Abortions.

Fox News:

• Critics accuse Minn. mayor of siding with Daunte Wright, rushing to judge accused police officer.
• Disillusioned Dems in liberal hotbed switching to GOP.
  

CNBC.com: 

• Holders of ‘cult-assets,’ like crypto, are putting pressure on the market, Jim Cramer says.
• The economy is running on a stimulus-fueled caffeine high. What will happen when it wears off?
• Why buying Coinbase may not be for you.
• Here’s who just got rich from the Coinbase debut.
• Ford CEO takes shot at Tesla for using customers to test unfinished tech.
• Jamie Dimon says U.S. consumers are ‘coiled, ready to go’ with $2 trillion more in checking accounts. 
• American Eagle says first-quarter sales to top $1 billion as shoppers buy more jeans and shirts.

MarketWatch.com:    

• Coinbase has fueled ‘a lot of frenzy’ and ‘that never ends well,’ bitcoin bull Novogratz tells MarketWatch.  
• Dell to finally spin off VMware stake.

Zero Hedge:

• Nancy Pelosi's Husband Uses Call Options To Buy Microsoft Ahead Of Big Govt Contract
• Iran’s Much-Troubled Nuclear Program.
• US Stimmy Checks Support Foreign Manufacturing Economies.
• US Intelligence Issues Ominous Warning Over 'Sustained Economic Downturn' And Other Long-Term Threats.
• Corn Prices Rally To Highest Since 2013 On Cold Blast Slowing US Seeding.
• 'Out To Kill A Cop' - Sniper On The Loose In Maryland.
• The New York Times Did A Big 180 In Favor Of Absentee Voting.
• Food Prices Are Rising Aggressively, And Even Corporate Media Admits It's Only Going To Get Worse.
• Despite Fauci Reassurance, CDC Advisory Panel Delays Vote On Un-Pausing J&J Vaccine By 10 Days.
• Is The DOJ Lying About The Ashli Babbitt Case?
• Hong Kong Journalist Who Embarrassed WHO Official Quits After Online Attacks.
• Dollar Dumps Amid COIN Carnage, Archegos Angst, & Ignited Inflation.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• EXCLUSIVE: Pregnant Single Mother Raided By FBI, Detained For a Week After Going Through an Open Door at the US Capitol — Now Faces Over 30 Years in Prison.
• Major Companies Join Several Fake News Outlets to Condemn Voter ID Laws in Full Page WaPo/NYT Ad — Because IDs Are Racist Only When Voting.
• EXCLUSIVE: Mother of Four Who Stopped Capitol Protesters From Breaking Windows Raided, Faces 55 Years in Prison.
• Biden’s Un-American UN Ambassador Trashes US: “White Supremacy is Weaved Into Our Founding Documents and Principles” (VIDEO).
• Guatemala’s President Joins Mexican President and Blames Joe Biden For Border Crisis, ‘Confusing Messages’ (VIDEO).
• China Simulates an Attack of a US Aircraft Carrier While Sending a Record Number of Planes Into Taiwan’s Airspace.
• The Location of the 2020 Election Audit of Maricopa County’s Results Is Now Set – The World is Watching Arizona.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Pulls Down Hollywood Blockbusters For Political Propaganda.
• Kerry Gershaneck: CCP Using Political Warfare to Fight Unseen War On Taiwan, US.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.75 +9.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +4.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.82 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,280.0 +38.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -1.1%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.04%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BAC)/.62
• (BLK)/8.24
• (SCHW)/.75
• (C)/2.18
• (DAL)/-2.75
• (PEP)/1.12
• (PGR)/1.72
• (RAD)/-.55
• (TSM)/5.25
• (TFC)/1.08
• (USB)/.94
• (UNH)/4.37
  

After the Close:

• (AA)/.47
• (JBHT)/1.23
• (MRTN)/.21
• (PPG)/1.55
• (WAL)/1.47
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 19.2 versus 17.4 in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 700K versus 744K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3700K versus 3734K prior.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to rise +5.8% versus a -3.0% decline in Feb.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to rise +5.0% versus a -2.7% decline in Feb.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for March are estimated to rise +6.4% versus a -3.3% decline in Feb.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for April is estimated to fall to 40.9 versus 51.8 in March.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for March is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a -2.2% decline in Feb.
• Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to rise to 75.6% versus 73.8% in Feb.
• Manufacturing Production for March is estimated to rise +3.6% versus a -3.1% decline in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST 

• Business Inventories for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to rise to 84 versus 82 in March.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows from Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China GDP report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Valuation Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,252.0 +77.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.87 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -.79%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.4 +2.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .72 +5.9%

• NYSE Arms .75 -35.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.27 +.22%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 457.26 -.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.01 +.03%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.75 +11.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.0 -2.4%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.29 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.25 -.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.76 +.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 146.0 -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 167.80 USD/Metric Tonne +.27%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.80 -2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 144.70 -1.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
• 94.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 94.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.7% 2) Internet -1.3% 3) Software -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EAR, OSH, AHCO, MUDS, DISCA, NRZ, AEVA, AGC, NVCR, GBOX, VIH, BBBY, LOVE, MSTR, RIOT, INTZ and MARA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DISCK 2) LFMD 3) K 4) BBBY 5) INDA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INTZ 2) NVCR 3) VLDR 4) TROW 5) ATR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +6.5% 2) Energy +3.7% 3) Biotech +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, SBTX, FPI, PLBY, FCX, IRTC, KOD, PRIM, CNST, CCCC, WFC, APO, GLSI, NVAX, ZNTL, AMTI and BXS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TPX 2) STAY 3) BBBY 4) GS 5) FLEX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) JBLU 3) XOM 4) GALT 5) CTRN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume