Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• China Huarong Bond Panic Eases After Government Breaks Silence.    
• Rebound of China’s Yuan Is Facing a $68 Billion Roadblock.  
• Won Poised for Rally as Economic Optimism Eclipses Virus Concern.
• China Says It Has No Desire to Replace Dollar With Digital Yuan.  
• U.K. House Prices Hit a Record in Buying Frenzy, Rightmove Says.  
• Mexico Plans Tree Planting, Regional Migration Pitch to Biden.
• Oxford Starts First Study to Reinfect Recovered Covid Patients.  
• Asia Stocks Set to Rise, U.S. Equity Futures Dip: Markets Wrap.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  
• Historic Oil Glut Amassed During the Pandemic Has Almost Gone.
• Covid Economic Scars, Digital Yuan-Dollar, Debt Crunch: Eco Day.  
• U.S. Passes Vaccine Milestone; Aid Goes to Ontario: Virus Update.
• Coinbase Hangover Rattles Crypto Assets With Bitcoin Falling.
• Banks Face Growing Pressure to Phase Out Fossil-Fuel Lending.  
• Facebook to Soon Announce Social Audio Products, Recode Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• WeWork’s New Stock-Listing Plan Has Echoes of Past.
• If Democrats Pack the Court.
• Investment Options for the Unwoke.
• Landmen Who Once Staked Claims for Oil and Gas Now Hunt Wind and Sun.
• Ohio Politics Is Changing Rapidly Beneath a Stable Surface.
• Fatal Tesla Crash in Texas Believed to Be Driverless.
• Cornyn Says Senate GOP Could Be Open to Smaller Infrastructure Bill.
• Stock Rally Broadens in Encouraging Sign for Bull Market.
• Fauci Predicts J&J Vaccine Returning Friday.
• Drugmakers Go on Trial Over Opioid Epidemic.
  

Fox News:

• WATCH: County officials ignore mother pleading for school reopening.

CNBC:  

• White House warns Russia will face consequences if Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in prison.
• Bitcoin tumbles from recent high as cryptocurrencies take weekend hit.

Zero Hedge: 

• The State Of The 'Third Wave' In Europe. 
• "Stunning Divergence": Latest Bank Data Reveals Something Is Terminally Broken In The Financial System.
• Biden Blames Russia For The Exact Same "Interference" That US Corporate Media Is Guilty Of. 
• “It’s Totally Insane. Someone Made A Million On Dogecoin With His Stimulus Check".
• Hedge Funds Are Getting The Hell Out Of New York In Favor Of Florida.
• Obama's Chief Energy Scientist Disputes The Climate-Change Propaganda-Peddlers. 
• Navalny's Team Claims He 'Could Die At Any Moment' As US Warns Russia Of "Consequences".
• In San Francisco, Drug Overdoses Claimed Twice As Many Lives As COVID-19.
• Biden Finally Admits There's A "Crisis" At The Border.
• 'Get More Confrontational': Maxine Waters Crosses State Lines To Incite BLM Protesters.
• Bitcoin Crashes As Much As 15% Amid Unsubstantiated Report Of Money Laundering Crackdown.
• Yet Another Ridiculous Stock Market Bubble... In Three Charts.
• Ever Fewer People Need Ever More Money... Said Nobody, Ever (Except The Federal Reserve).
• Bitcoin puke, Fed's BS and risk.
• The Political Economy Of Fear.
• Canadian Cops Refuse To Enforce Ontario's New 'Police State' COVID-Lockdown Laws.
• "Fentanyl Is Here:" Las Vegas Suffers 200% Surge In Overdose Deaths.
• The Plutocrats Of Wall Street And Silicon Valley Are Scamming America.
• Taco Bell Opens "Digital-Only" Location In Times Square That Serves Alcohol.
• Black Lives Matter Activist Charged With Anti-Asian Hate Crime.

MarketWatch.com:   

• These stocks let you tap into the hot housing market.
  

NewsMax:     

• Ex-DNI Ratcliffe: US Rivals 'Testing, Taking Advantage of' Biden.
• Biden, China Agree to Cooperate on Climate Crisis.
• Poll: Only 38 Percent Back Packing Supreme Court.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Rep. Maxine Waters Protests Past Curfew in Brooklyn Center, Calls for BLM to Get ‘More Confrontational’ if Chauvin is Acquitted.
• CNN Host Chris Cuomo Says White People’s Kids Need to ‘Start Getting Killed’ to Prompt Police Reform.
• HUGE: Non-profit EcoHealth Alliance, Received More than $1 Million in US Grants While Its Head Promoted the Made-Up Wuhan Wet-Market Conspiracy.
• NBA Ratings In Free Fall Since Going Woke Left – Down 45 Percent Since 2012.
• “You’ll Get F**king Clapped, Delgado!” – Peaceful Leftist Protesters Threaten to Murder NYC Police Officer at Protest-Riot (VIDEO).
• Arizona Senate Is Ready for Audit of Maricopa County’s 2020 Election Results to Begin – The Democrats Are In a Panic.
• Pompous Fauci Attacks Jim Jordan, Says Mask Mandates, Endless Lockdowns and Vaccine Passports Have Nothing to do with Restricting Civil Liberties (VIDEO).
• Minnesota National Guard Targeted in Drive By Shooting Hours After Rep. Maxine Waters Told BLM To Be ‘More Confrontational’.
• Biden’s Anti-American UN Ambassador Doubles Down, Compares US’ Founding Fathers to How the Chinese Treat the Uyghurs (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing-Backed Officials and Media Threaten to Shut Down Hong Kong’s ‘Apple Daily’ Newspaper. 
• US, China Agree to Cooperate on Climate, Beijing’s Actions Are Key.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 -7.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.01 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,300.0 -2.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.15 +.98%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%.
• S&P 500 futures -.33%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (KO)/.50
• (MTB)/2.96
• (ONB)/.41

After the Close:

• (CCK)/1.39
• (IBM)/1.62
• (STLD)/1.99
• (UAL)/-6.82
• (ZION)/1.16
  

Economic Releases

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA minutes could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Covid Will Leave Deep Scars in World Economy Even After Recovery.  
• South Africa Moves to Restart J&J; U.S. Cases Rise: Virus Update.  
• Police In Ontario Balk at New Powers Under Virus Emergency Law.  
• TSMC Says Trade Tensions Could Disrupt Supply of Chip Equipment.
• Asia’s Tycoons Pile Into SPACs Just as U.S. Eyes Tighter Rules.
• SPAC Wipeout Is Punishing Followers of Chamath Palihapitiya.  
• ECB Debates How to Get Back to the Future After Virus: Eco Week.
• Tech Stocks Are Mired in Unfamiliar Territory as Market Laggards.
• Stock Market Thrill Ride Is Breaking Bonds’ Grip on Mom and Pop.  
• Chauvin’s Appeal Groundwork is Set With Verdict Yet to Come.
• Bets Against Treasuries Start to Pinch in Tough Week for Bears.
• Big Banks Rake in Record Profits as Stimulus Props Up Consumers.

Wall Street Journal:

• If Democrats Pack the Court.
• Citigroup Refocuses in Asia Amid Consumer Pullback.
• Mexico Steps Up Detentions and Deportations of Migrants.
• California Needs More Affordable Homes. This Union Stands in the Way.
• Media’s Racial Narrative Targets Whites, Harms Blacks.
• These Technologies Could Hold Back Business Travel Indefinitely.
• Roblox Struggles With Sexual Content. It Hopes a Ratings System Will Address the Problem.
• Travel Boom Coming, Expedia CEO Says: ‘Hotels Will Come Screaming Back’.
  

CNBC:

• U.S. agency tells consumers to stop using Peloton’s Tread+ treadmill.
• Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause is making it tougher for many people to get a shot against Covid.
• The new U.S. plan to rival China and end cornering of market in rare earth metals.
• Cost of new and used cars climbs, and limited inventory is expected this spring.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (CHPT), (COIN), (PETQ), (ORLY) and (DIS).

MarketWatch.com:     

• The semiconductor shortage is here to stay, but it will affect chip companies differently.  
• Get ready for stock buybacks to roar back.  
• These stocks are ‘cash cows’ that give you a better way to play the value sector.

Fox News:

• Biden finally admits 'crisis' at the border but it comes with a catch.
• Madman violently throws chemical on NYPD officer during routine traffic stop in horrifying video.

Newsmax:  

• 'America First Caucus' Plans Scrapped After GOP Leaders Push Back.
• Boehner's Pro-Pot, Anti-GOP Agenda Could Net Him $20 Million.
• Dershowitz to Newsmax TV: 'Disaster' to Add More Supreme Court Justices.  
• Biden Says he Will Raise U.S. Cap on Refugee Admissions.

Zero Hedge:

• What's Taboo? Everything Except Greed. 
• Russia Shuts Ukraine's Military Access To Black Sea.
• Iran Obtains 60% Enriched Uranium Overnight In Alarming First.
• Globalists Will Need Another Crisis In America As Their Reset Agenda Fails.
• Thirdworldization: The Slow Burning SHTF Of America.
• Democrats Brace For 'Defund The Police' Movement To Damage Party Into Midterms.
• Record 33% Of Young Americans Living With Parents.
• Apollo Joins Exodus To Florida As New York Tax Hike Drives Out Wealthy.
• CNN Can't Stop Losing: Viewership Down By Half Since Biden Took Office, 60% In Key Demo.
• "I Object..." - Is This The Start Of The Turn Against 'Woke Tyranny'?
• Woke Capital Is Destined To Become A Relic.
• Iconic Retail Investor "Roaring Kitty" Doubles Down On Gamestop, Now Owns 200,000 Shares.
• Iran Says "New Understanding" Reached In Vienna Nuclear Talks.
• Is China Preparing A Gold-Backed Yuan: Beijing Greenlights Purchases Of Billions In Bullion.
• The Interesting Case Of 'The Zaïre'... The Question MMT Cannot Answer.
• Punching Right: Liz Cheney Was Top Never-Trump Peddler Of Debunked 'Russian Bounties' Story.
• 76% Rise In Stocks Since The March Low Is The 3rd Largest Jump In 100 Years... What Happens Next.
• Trannies Rally To Longest Weekly Win-Streak In History, Bonds Best Week Since June.
• Slowly But Surely, The Truth Is Coming Out.
• Trannies Rally To Longest Weekly Win-Streak In History, Bonds Best Week Since June.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden’s Intelligence Community Is Not Focused on China or Antifa But on their Political Opposition – President Trump, Roger Stone, Kash Patel and American Patriots Are First in Line.
• Biden Decides to Raise Gas Prices and Heating Bills and Make America Dependent on Foreign Oil Again – Nobody Voted for This.
• MLB’s Net Favorability With Republicans Tanks To 12% After Bonehead Move.
• Former Border Patrol Agent Gives His Opinion On The Wall And Shocking Details Of Smuggler Tactics.
• CBS News Edits Police Bodycam Footage, Right and Left Edges Trimmed Away to Omit Portion of Video Where 13 yr old Adam Toledo is Seen Holding Firearm.
• “Every Single Day There’s a Mass Shooting in the US, It’s a National Embarrassment!” Biden Pounds His Hand on Podium, Trashes America in Front of Japanese Prime Minister (VIDEO).
• Putin Responds to Biden – Kicks 10 Americans Out of Russia and Blacklists Others – Keeps Blockades on Ukraine Ports In Place.

The Epoch Times:

• Sudden Death of Former Shanghai Mayor Draws Attention to Infighting Within Chinese Leadership.
• Canadian Lawmakers Condemn Attack on Hong Kong Epoch Times Printing Press.
• ‘Very Dangerous Time’: Beijing Advancing Timeline to Seize Territory in Asian Region, Says Former Navy Intelligence Officer.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,185.48 +1.3%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,217.0 +1.2%

• NASDAQ 14,054.0 +1.0%

• Russell 2000 2,262.58 +.81%

• S&P 500 High Beta 71.24 +.04%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 314.11 +.87%

• Wilshire 5000 43,752.17 +1.34%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,629.41 +1.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,544.55 +1.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 717.77 +1.4%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,433.80 -1.0%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,030.66 -.03%

• Transports 14,938.34 +.08%

• Utilities 925.9 +3.8%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 70.27 +.43%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 54.30 +1.2%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,394.89 +.11%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 941.02 -.06%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 466,461 +.51%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,186 +468

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -41.8 +3.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 511,725 -3.69%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,340,357 +.57%

• Total Put/Call .76 +2.7%

• OEX Put/Call 2.33 +.4%

• ISE Sentiment 109.0 +21.0 points

• NYSE Arms .74 -28.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,291.0 +84.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -2.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.4 -1.3%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.21 -5.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.95 -5.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,375.35 +1.5%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.454 Trillion -.67%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +4.826 Million

• AAII % Bulls 53.8 -5.5%

• AAII % Bears 24.6 +20.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 193.49 +3.6%

• Crude Oil 63.3 +6.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 204.9 +4.2%

• Natural Gas 2.68 +6.3%

• Heating Oil 189.63 +4.8%

• Gold 1,779.14 +2.0%
• Silver 26.04 +3.1%
  

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 244.0 +2.8% 

• Copper 416.80 +3.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 430.0 USD/Metric Tonne -5.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 172.0 USD/Metric Tonne +4.0%

• Lumber 1,299.0 +12.9%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,169.21 +2.78%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 318.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +8.3% +2.1 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +25.0% -.1 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 12.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +11.74 +19.8%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 124.47 -12.6%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 184.80 +.98%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.20 +4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 141.70 -8.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.80 +11.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 93.9% chance of no change, 6.1% chance of rate hike on 4/28

• US Dollar Index 91.56 -.66%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,708.63 +.46%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 61,875 +5.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.73 -.13%

• Yield Curve 142.0 -7.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.58% -7.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.754 Trillion +1.09%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10.45 -3.3%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.16 -3.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.39 +1.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 202.76 -8.2%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.4 -5.5%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.79 -.18%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 96.65 -16.3%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.12 -.08%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.1 -1.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 354.0 -1.35%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.53 -.56%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 161.40 -9.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 65.0 -2.75 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 72.25 -1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $1.841 Trillion unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,207.40 +3.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 683,000 -6.5%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.7% +10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.04% -9.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 667,700 -3.7%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 53.9 +2.0 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +13.2% +390.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.876/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,323 +11.4%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,853.53 -.24%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 160.70 -7.9%

• Rail Freight Carloads 280,424 -1.9%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%
  

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +4.1%

• Utilities +3.2%
  

• Biotech +3.0%

• Medical Equipment +2.9%

• Healthcare Providers +2.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -.6%
  

• Semis -.8%

• Gaming -3.1%

• Airlines -3.1%

• Alt Energy -6.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)

• LSCC, PPG, NVAX, PGNY, AA, MRNA, HGV, SEMR, LOVE, UFS, REVG, LEVI, AXTA, WAL, ALXN, TTC, SHW, BRP, RH, FND, APLS and OLLI
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• AGC, MWK, EAR, PCRX, CRF, ACLS, CLM, CLPT, BTBT, STIM, PINS and INTZ
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change