Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.2% 2) Energy +2.0% 3) Pharma +.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRIS, SNDX, CVI, LQDT, FUBO, NLOK, UPST, HLI, PSTH and BSY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EWJ 2) SOXS 3) ALL 4) NLOK 5) CRIS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FUBO 2) NLOK 3) BCRX 4) LEXX 5) MESA

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -11.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
  • 24.7% of Issues Advancing, 71.3% Declining
  • 51 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 86.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,862.0 -40.0 points
  • Vix 24.0 +10.0%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -7.1%
  • TRIN/Arms .66 -1.5%

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:               
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:       
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.75 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.52 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,857.0 -53.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.88 +.14%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.4%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (LITE)/1.40
  • (TSEM)/.31
  • (WEN)/.14
  • (WWW)/.38
After the Close:
  • (DOX)/1.13
  • (BOOT)/.43
  • (JACK)/1.25
  • (PAAS)/.50
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in March.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in March.
  • Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY for April.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,142,000 barrels versus a -7,990,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +152,630 barrels versus a +737,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,545,630 barrels versus a -2,896,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.16% versus a +1.1% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Deficit for April is estimated at -$207.9B versus -$738.0B in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Clarida speaking, UK GDP report, German Inflation data report, 10Y T-note outlook, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Citi Car of teh Future Symposium could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Inflation Worries, Rising Mid-East Tensions, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Abvove Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.5 +9.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,958.0 -110.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.50 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 +1.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +13.5%
  • NYSE Arms .49 -51.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 +1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.79 +.92%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.93 +2.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.66 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.77 +1.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.36 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 -1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.52 -.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 144.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 220.95 USD/Metric Tonne +3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.4 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 165.60 +4.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.80 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 -1.0 basis point
  • 91.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 91.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -11 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -91 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my commodity/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -4.1% 2) Shipping -2.4% 3) Computer Hardware -2.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BSY, ABNB, BFAM, RETA, SDGR, CSQ, ACTC, NSTG, MGNI, HTGC, IR, LXP, CCS, CRL, CUE, IBP, FND, KOD, LB, LPX, AFRM, BGFV, BTX, PCT, NSA, BCC, KREF, PXD, LGIH, ORGO, HZO, OXY, RCKT, ARCT, MUDS, PLBY, PAR, NVAX, HBI, REAL, RXT and REKR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IEF 2) JCI 3) HPQ 4) COMM 5) AGNC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) REAL 2) RMNI 3) SPCE 4) VRM 5) LYB
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Digital Health +1.2% 2) Steel +1.2% 3) Internet +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DDD, SWAV, FOE, UFS, RBLX, PLUG, ELY, EVBG, LQDT, NLOK, AVNS, FSLY, PRTS, TFSL, PLTR, AZPN, ORMP, EFC, SUM, ROKU and BEAM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SOXS 2) IGT 3) PUMP 4) JCI 5) COMM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SWAV 2) RBLX 3) IGT 4) PLTR 5) ATVI