Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,434.32 +.9%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 35,169.76 +.7%

• NASDAQ 14,819.43 +1.0%

• Russell 2000 2,259.71 +1.1%

• S&P 500 High Beta 74.35 +2.2%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 334.70 +3.5%

• Wilshire 5000 46,020.39 +.9%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,846.18 +.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,588.37 +.91%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 735.45 -.45%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,411.02 +.40%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,253.19 +1.9%

• Transports 14,471.54 +.12%

• Utilities 931.35 +2.6%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.9 +4.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 51.87 +.63%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,446.33 +.13%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 931.54 +.04%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 479,455 +.03%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 400 -259

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -37.1 +7.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 449,764 +.23%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,326,985 +3.7%

• Total Put/Call .90 +4.9%

• OEX Put/Call 2.76 +32.5%

• ISE Sentiment 115.0 +19.0 points

• NYSE Arms .82 -57.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,828.0 +231.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 5.66 +.7% 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.6 -8.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.7 -5.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.0 +.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.9 +1.0%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,043.70 -.55%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.501 Trillion -.03%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -3.361 Million

• AAII % Bulls 36.1 -.3%

• AAII % Bears 31.7 +31.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 214.87 -1.6%

• Crude Oil 68.55 -7.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 227.88 -2.5%

• Natural Gas 4.17 +6.5%

• Heating Oil 209.90 -4.4%

• Gold 1,764.29 -2.9%
• Silver 24.36 -4.8%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 470.79 -1.3%

• Copper 434.50 -2.95%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 470.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 162.6 USD/Metric Tonne -8.7%

• Lumber 550.0 -13.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,283.10 +1.43%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 550.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +6.0% -.1 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.9% -2.2 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +8.29 -7.8%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 145.66 +19.9%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 210.38 +.93%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.4 +10.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -14.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.9 -8.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 9/22

• US Dollar Index 92.79 +.78%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,734.86 +.29%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 42,908 +3.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.87 -.44%
  

• Yield Curve 103.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.29% +6.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.196 Trillion +.17%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9.33 unch.

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 123.82 +5.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.86 -1.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 182.31 +3.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.24 -3.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.59 -.01%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.22 +.21%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 37.80 +.46%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35% -6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 8.0 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.93 -.88%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 335.0 +4.8%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.09 -2.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 164.51 +.01%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 75.0 +3.5 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.5 -.25 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.2 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,137.6 -.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 394,000 unch.
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% -.3 percentage point
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.77% -3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 734,300 -1.7%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 53.3 +.1 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +15.5% +.5 percentage point

• Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,376 +2.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,006.82 +2.62%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 18.0 +2.9%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 142.50 -7.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,565 +.16%
• US Covid-19:  209 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +65/100K people
• US Covid-19:  39% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak +12.0 percentage points
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.7%
  

Leading Sectors

• Banks +4.9%

• Disk Drives +4.6%
  

• I-Banks +4.0%

• Biotech +3.8%
  

• Insurance +2.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -1.9%
  

• Video Gaming -2.0%

• Oil Service -2.6%

• Social  Media -2.8%

• Gold & Silver -5.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (32)

• BTBT, GDYN, CNTY, BYSI, CSOD, JYNT, XENT, PCTY, CFLT, GDEN, CDXS, PFSI, PFSI, LTHM, CARG, AGFY, BHF, ONTO, MARA, OCFC, ASTR, UTHR, DVAX, VVNT, ACI, SEAS, OPCH, DMTK, MRSN, MSTR, OMCL and BCRX
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• PTVE, ROAD, COLD, BAND, APP, EXPE, ENVX, ARNA, GRPN, TSP, CVET, PGNY, ZY, VMEO, FEYE and COLL
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Diminished Virus Lockdown Fears, Short-Covering, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -4.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,826.0 +160.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.89 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.88 +1.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.6 +.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .91 +11.0%

• NYSE Arms .78 -2.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.94 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.14 -.79%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -.74%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 -.01%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.73 +.74%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.06 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.48 -.63%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 103.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 163.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.4 n/a

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -6.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.9 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 209 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +7/100K people
• 39% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +90 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -125 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -1.5% 2) Gold & Silver -1.5% 3) Biotech -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BAND, EGLE, Z, FNKO, FLS, EXPE, ENVX, RDFN, CVET, OLED, BIGC, ARNA, GRPN, QDEL, TSP, FROG, PGNY, IHRT, ZGNX, ZY, FEYE, COLL, VMEO, YMAB, NVAX and DRNA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AVYA 2) FEYE 3) WY 4) BAX 5) NVAX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZNGA 2) ZY 3) EXPE 4) FEYE 5) QUOT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +2.7% 2) Oil Service +2.4% 3) Steel +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RAMP, BYSI, SWCH, BTBT, SYNA, CNTY, GDYN, MVIS, CSOD, PRTS, JYNT, XENT, CFLT, PCTY, POST, GT, TGI, AXNX, UNIT, MGNI, PFSI, MARA, CTVA, AGFY, GDEN, MAXR, LTHM, ITRI, CARG, MNST, YELP, ONTO, BLL, ADTN, BHF, ACI, OCFC, DVAX, SEAS, EHTH, ASTR, MSTR, ORMP, MRSN, GPN, OPCH, FIS, FSLY and HLMN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PRTY 2) GRPN 3) DVAX 4) AEP 5) XLB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ANY 2) SWCH 3) RAMP 4) GCI 5) SYNA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 54.8% of Issues Advancing, 40.5% Declining
• 131 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 73.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,821.0 +155.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,562 -.96%
  
• Vix 16.9 -2.4%
• Total Put/Call .74 -9.7%
• TRIN/Arms .82 +2.5%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Japan’s Inflation Likely Below Zero as Cheaper Phones Weigh More.
• U.K. Starting Salaries Rise at Record Rate With Demand for Staff.
• Cars Fueled by Sugar in India Will Add to Food Inflation Risks.
  
• Singapore Eases Taiwan Rules; California Mandate: Virus Update.
• Asia Stocks Steady After Rally in U.S. on Earnings: Markets Wrap.
  
• Saudi Oil Challenged in Asia by Delta and Cheap Alternatives.
• Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Loss This Year on Delta Concerns.
• BOE Turns Hawkish, Japan Deflation, U.S. Delta Slowdown: Eco Day.
• It’s Chaos on Wall Street as Delta Variant Upends Return to Work.
• Kellogg Says Pandemic-Era Supply Chain Upheaval Is Persisting.
  
• Biden Proposes Stronger Than Expected Vehicle Emission Rules.  
• Homebuilders in U.S. Ease Up on Price Hikes as Buyers Push Back.

Wall Street Journal:

• China’s Corporate Crackdown Is Just Getting Started. Signs Point to More Tumult Ahead.
• CNN Fires Three Staffers Who Came to Work Unvaccinated.
• Senate Bill to Repeal Iraq War Authorizations Draws Key Level of GOP Support.
• The Electric Vehicle Welfare State.
• Have No Illusions About the U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan.
• The GOP’s Bad Infrastructure Deal.
• Exxon Considers Pledging ‘Net Zero’ Carbon by 2050.
• Robinhood Stock Drops After News of Early Investors Set to Sell Shares.
  

Fox News:

• Mom says 'game on' after teachers union sues to prevent her from getting critical race theory records.
• Landlord 'drowning' in losses rips 'crazy' eviction ban after Biden backtracks.

NY Post: 

• US companies riddled with members of Chinese Communist Party: Devine. Boeing(BA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Pfizer(PFE) are just three US companies that have employed dozens of CCP members in their Chinese facilities, the database reveals. 
  

CNBC.com: 

• Friday’s jobs report is a wild card, with economists’ estimates all over the map.
• Fauci warns more severe Covid variant could emerge as U.S. cases near 100,000 daily.
• Cloud stocks soar to fresh records as Datadog’s results help boost Cloudflare and Asana.
• Cramer’s list of cheap stocks to buy in a market trading at record highs.
• Beyond Meat says delta variant fears and labor challenges prompt fewer restaurant orders.
• Novavax delays Covid vaccine emergency authorization submission to FDA until fourth quarter.
• Levi Strauss to buy apparel brand Beyond Yoga, launching into activewear

Zero Hedge:

• FDA Reportedly Planning For COVID Vaccine Booster Shot Approval By September.
• 'Privacy Company' Apple Plans To Monitor All US iPhones For Evidence Of Child Porn.
• Quiet Roads In China Are Concern For Oil Markets.
• Iran's New Hardline President Sworn In, Vows 'Resistance' To "Arrogant" West.
• Vaccinations 'No Silver Bullet' - Aussie Senator Admits Restrictions Would Remain For Long Time.
• Biden DOJ Intervenes In Saudi Spymaster Case Over 'Damage To US National Security'.
• Howard Marks: "We Are In An Everything Bubble".
• Here Comes The Fear Campaign To Vaccinate All Of America's Minors.
• Beijing Walks Back Crackdown On Video Games, But Promises To Protect Teens From "Internet Dangers".
• Illinois' Gov. Pritzker Strips School Districts, Parents Of Control Over Masks With New Mandate.
• CBO Sees Infrastructure Bill Adding $250 Billion To Deficit Over 10 Years.
• Vaccine Success, Media Misery: Taibbi Asks - Is Good News Taboo In The Trump Age?
• Cryptos & Small Caps Surge As 'Hard' Data's Hammered To 2-Year Lows.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Psaki Admits Biden Admin is Dumping COVID-Positive Illegal Aliens Into McAllen, Texas (VIDEO).
• Information from Code Monkey Z Provides Additional Proof that Michigan Election Leaders ABSOLUTELY Destroyed Evidence When Changing Batteries in Voting Machines.
• WOW: Moderna Calls for 3rd Shot of Vaccine to Protect Against New Strains — On Same Day Company Posts $4 Billion 2nd Quarter Profit on Vaccine.
• “Conspiracy Theory” Over Aborted Babies For Organ Harvesting Leads To Be True And Government-Funded.
• WOW! After 7 Months FBI Stalks and Arrests Trump Supporter and “Insurrectionist” Dressed as George Washington for Walking into US Capitol on Jan. 6.

The Epoch Times:

• US Offers Temporary ‘Safe Haven’ to Hongkongers Amid Beijing’s Suppression.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity.
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.75 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.84 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,621.0 -45.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.4 +.43%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures unch. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (D)/.77
• (DKNG)/-.58
• (FLR)/.08
• (GT)/.17
• (LEA)/2.47
• (MGA)/1.41
• (NCLH)/-2.00
• (NUAN)/.18
• (SRCL)/.67

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to rise to 870K versus 850K in June.
• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 5.7% versus 5.9% in June.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for June.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for June is estimated to fall to $23.0B versus $35.28B in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.