Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,465.78 +.6%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 35,507.8 +.91%

• NASDAQ 14,812.30 -.12%

• Russell 2000 2,226.20 -.7%

• S&P 500 High Beta 74.5 +.58%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 330.16 +.03%

• Wilshire 5000 46,252.0 +.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,849.53 +.05%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,604.59 +1.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 750.07 +1.99%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,425.96 +.14%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,193.09 -1.4%

• Transports 14,933.0 +3.0%

• Utilities 937.57 +1.1%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.5 +.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 51.65 -.56%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,448.69 +.01%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 932.55 +.05%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 480,514 +.22%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 396 -4

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -37.1 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 430,527 -4.3%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,313,202 -.6%

• Total Put/Call .91 -9.6%

• OEX Put/Call 2.76 -3.2%

• ISE Sentiment 114.0 -1.0 point

• NYSE Arms 1.4 +58.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,890.0 +62.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 5.66 -.3% 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -5.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.9 +3.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.7 -5.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.7 -1.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,255.07 +1.4%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.510 Trillion +.21%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -4.024 Million

• AAII % Bulls 37.0 +2.5%

• AAII % Bears 31.5 -.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 217.09 +1.3%

• Crude Oil 68.50 +1.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 225.98 +.45%

• Natural Gas 3.88 -5.0%

• Heating Oil 207.80 +.25%

• Gold 1,777.50 +.9%
• Silver 23.73 -2.2%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 469.29 +.4%

• Copper 437.90 +1.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 462.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.95 USD/Metric Tonne -3.4%

• Lumber 508.10 -6.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,332.63 +3.7%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 540.0 USD/Short Ton -1.8%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +6.0% -.1 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +6.8% -2.1 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +7.6 -13.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 119.9 +100.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 211.12 +.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.1 -25.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.3 -14.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.4 +3.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 9/22

• US Dollar Index 92.50 -.3%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,725.18 -.26%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 46,521 +5.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.74 -.07%
  

• Yield Curve 113.0 +10.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.30% +1.0 basis point
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.218 Trillion +.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9.34 +.11%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 113.92 -3.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.38 -3.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 179.16 -1.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.52 +8.4%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.09 -.18%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.45 -3.1%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.46 +1.1%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 8.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.44 -.97%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 338.0 +1.2%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 52.94 -.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 159.31 -3.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 74.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.5 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.2 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,141.50 +.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 396,250 +.44%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.87% +10.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 754,800 +2.8%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 54.6 +1.3 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +16.2% +.7 percentage point

• Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 3,503 +3.9%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,978.47 -.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 18.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 139.0 -2.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 275,271 +.6%
• US Covid-19:  263 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +54/100K people
• US Covid-19:  49% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak +10.0 percentage points
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -1.4%
  

Leading Sectors

• Steel +12.4%

• Agriculture +4.4%
  

• Road & Rail +4.0%

• Foods +3.5%
  

• Shipping +2.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -1.7%
  

• Healthcare Providers -1.8%

• Digital Health -2.1%

• Semis -2.5%

• Disk Drives -4.5%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• PPC, UPST, SKIN, AGFY, GXO, LE, DVAX, EBAY, DDS, SEMR, CAR, LRN, CDZI, IDT, X, RPRX, NEWT, CARA and KNBE
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• HCC, AXSM, GRWG, TTCF, CRCT and EAR
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminishing Fed Taper Fears, Lower Long-Term Rates, US Dollar Weakness, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.3 -1.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,911.0 -26.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.70 -.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.91%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.0 +2.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0  +27.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -4.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.2 -6.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.47 -1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 443.0 +.50%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.93 -.31%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.0 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.31 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.46 +.57%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 7.75 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 +2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.80 +.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 113.0 +1.75 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 162.05 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.1 -17.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.3 -.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.4 +3.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 263 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +5/100K people
• 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -62 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -49 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -27.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 48.7% of Issues Advancing, 46.8% Declining
• 124 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
• 74.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,907.0 -29.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,357 +.08%
  
• Vix 12.3 -2.0%
• Total Put/Call .85 -3.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.4 +8.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.25 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.63 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,792.0 -144.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.27%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in June.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in June.
• The Export Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.2% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for August is estimated at 81.2 versus 81.2 in July.
• The Univ. of Mich. 1-Yr Inflation Expectations Index for August is estimated to fall to +4.6% versus +4.7% in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Inflation Data report and the Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Aug. could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by energy and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.