Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -1.6% 2) Airlines -1.2% 3) Software -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TTD, ACRE, AI, PARA, DTM, CVE, SKM, VMC, EPAM, NRG, DDOG, TRUP, SNCY, HST, TROX, BIGC, HSIC, SI, TRIP, SKIN, UPWK, AMPL, OGN, DNB, COUR, SHOP, TOST and RNG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) RVNC 3) LQD 4) EWC 5) AKAM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TOST 2) QS 3) SHOP 4) JMIA 5) SAM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• Steel +1.4% 2) I-Banks +1.4% 3) Healthcare Providers +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SVC, FSLY, NTRA, TWLO, ROKU, PEGA, ASPN, WST, TXG, SGEN, SYNH, BLMN, NEX, ARCH, PBF, KBR, ALSN, TNET, DOCN, EQT, QDEL, CROX, OPI, WSO, METC, CSCO, AMED, REZI, SMG, IRDM, USFD, NRDS, VZIO, FUN, ALB, RS, SNX, MRO, ATNM and ABNB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ICLN 2) CYH 3) VRAY 4) TWLO 5) CSCO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TWLO 2) EQT 3) ROKU 4) TSLA 5) CSCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Potential Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AMCX)/1.27
• (AXL)/.01
• (AN)/5.84
• (B)/.49
• (DE)/5.47
• (PPL)/.29
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.8% gain in Dec.
• The Import Price Index YoY for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +3.5% gain in Dec.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -2.6% decline in Dec.
• The Export Price Index YoY for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.8% versus a +5.0% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Jan. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.8% decline in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 38.2% of Issues Advancing, 58.6% Declining
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 60.6%(-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.5 +.09%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,036.6 -.19%
  
• Vix 18.6 +1.9%
• Total Put/Call .85 -6.6%
• TRIN/Arms .89 +20.3%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                               

• China Stock Slide Puts Hedge Funds’ Crowded Trade at Risk.
• China’s $2 Trillion LGFV Market Flashes New Credit Warning.
• Japan’s Trade Deficit Smashes Record, Topping 3 Trillion Yen.
• Australian Unemployment Unexpectedly Jumps, Bond Yields Drop.  
• Goldman Growth Fund Boosts Bets on India as China Interest Cools.
• Hong Kong Steps Up Efforts to Fix Housing Crisis After Xi Push. 
• Asia Follows Wall Street Higher in Risk-On Rally: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Hedging Ramps Up in Sign Market Is Stabilizing.
• Williams Says Fed to Stay the Course to Get Inflation to Goal.   
• Morgan Stanley Doubles Down on ESG Despite the Politics.
• From Math Camp to Handcuffs: FTX’s Downfall Was an Arc of Brotherhood and Betrayal.
• These Are the Stanford Faculty Members Keeping Sam Bankman-Fried Out of Jail.
• Zuckerberg Spends More on Security Despite ‘Year of Efficiency’.   
• ‘50 Cent’ VIX Trader Returns as Volatility Hedging Back in Vogue.  
• Biden-McCarthy Budget Challenge Worsens on New CBO Estimates.  
• Fidelity to Hire 4,000 for New Roles, Bucking Industry’s Firings.  
• NYC Mayor May Relax 5-Day Office Policy for City Workers as Agency Vacancies Rise.

Wall Street Journal: 

• WallStreetBets Founder Files Suit Against Reddit.
• Biden’s Federal Budget Blowout. The new CBO forecast shows the deep fiscal hole Democrats have dug. 
• Binance Expects to Pay Penalties to Resolve U.S. Investigations.
• Justice Department Escalates Apple Antitrust Probe.
• Some Women With Breast Cancer Could Skip Harsh Radiation, Research Shows.
• AMC Networks Owner Finds a New CEO: His Spouse.
• Medical Schools Stage a Mutiny Against the U.S. News Rankings. They imply that diversity and excellence are at odds.
• Captain of Thai Soccer Team Rescued From Cave Dies at 17.

Fox News:

• CDC director's COVID masking comment sends Twitter into a tailspin.
• Feds turn up heat on scandal-hit president over classified documents.

CNBC.com:

• How conflict minerals make it into our phones.
• Google asks employees to rewrite Bard’s bad responses, says the A.I. ‘learns best by example’.
• FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s two bond guarantors unsealed, both with ties to Stanford.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Roku, Cisco Systems, Twilio and more.

MarketWatch:            

• Crypto? ‘It’s worthless. It’s no good. It’s crazy. It does nothing but harm and it’s antisocial,’ says Charlie Munger.
  
• Cisco stock spikes after earnings and revenue beat, annual forecast raised.  
• Shopify stock falls 5% as forecast disappoints amid escalating Amazon rivalry, price increases.  
• Zillow vows to continue to invest in ‘tough housing market’.  
• What are these EIA ‘adjustments’ in the weekly U.S. oil supply data tables all about?   
• SEC proposes rule that could squeeze Coinbase and other crypto platforms.    
• Stocks face ‘meaningful’ downside risk amid ‘complacent’ markets: JPMorgan. Investors are pulling back from the housing market, buying half as many homes as a year ago, Redfin says.  
• Tesla ‘stands out’ by this analysis, and that has earned its stock a bullish rating.

Zero Hedge:

• Watch: East Palestine Officials Hold Meeting With Frustrated Residents.
• Dystopian Artificial Intelligence Is Not Near, It Is Already Here.
• Asia To Use Half Of World's Electricity By 2025.
• Microsoft's Bing AI Chatbot Starts Threatening People.
• 'Ohio Chernobyl': East Palestine Town Hall Scrapped After Residents Report Health Problems
• The Plot To Silence A Fauci Critic.
• Military AI Applications Will Be As Game-Changing As Nukes: Former Google CEO.
• Chinese Refining Giants Resume Purchases Of Russia's Flagship Crude.
• FAA Issues Rare "Call To Action" After Near Miss Incidents.
• PBOC's "Unrounded" MLF Operation May Put Floor Under China Rate.
• Here They Come: Hedge Funds "Start To Rerisk", Buy Tech For 11 Straight Days.
• US stocks gained as markets digested a slew of data releases including strong retail sales - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Foreigners BTFD In US Equities In December As TIC Flows Show China's 'Official' Treasury Dump Continues.
• Chicago Dad Placed On Watchlist After Opposing Pornography In Schools.
• Biden Willing To Let Germans Freeze In Blowing Up Pipeline: Seymour Hersh Interview.
• Stocks claw back losses & more but bonds remain hit after hot data - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Biggest Hedge Fund Bear Unleashes Epic Shorting Frenzy, Buys Millions In Puts On Dozens Of Meme And Crypto Stocks.
• Stocks & Crypto Soar Despite Hawkish Fed Expectations Accelerating.
• Nomura: Why US Equities Are An Untradeable Mess Right Now...

Newsmax:   

• Cruz Says Axing Newsmax 'Indefensible,' Vowing Action as DirecTV Responds.  
• Jeffrey Lord: Obama/Clinton Ties Make DirecTV Move No Shock.
• Texas AG Paxton: State Should Probe AT&T.
• Rep. Guest: Conservatives, 'Close Pocketbooks' to AT&T.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Hersh on Nord Stream Attack: “The Fear was Europe Would Walk Away From the War”.
• Elon Musk Criticizes the Concept of “World Government” at the “World Government Summit” – Says It Could Lead to the ‘Collapse’ of Civilization (VIDEO).
• World Series Poker Player Caught On Hot Mic “I Wish I Never Got the Vaccine”.
• Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s Bail Co-Signers Revealed – Heavy Affiliations with Stanford University and “Election Integrity”.
• THAT’S JUST WEIRD: Netflix Premiered Show “White Noise” in 2022 on Ohio Train Crash and Toxic Chemical Explosion, Included East Palestine Residents as Extras — TRAILER INCLUDED.
• Over 200 New York Times Contributors Sign Open Letter Complaining About Paper’s Coverage of Transgender Issues.
• HORROR: Pregnant 26-Year-Old Mother-of-Three Dies Suddenly After “Sudden Cardiac Arrest,” Unborn Baby Dead As Well.
• Chris Cuomo: “I Was Going to Kill Everybody and Myself” After Being Fired From CNN (AUDIO).
• WATCH: Joe Biden Refers to Democrat Wes Moore – Maryland’s First Black Governor as “Boy”.
• Attorney Representing East Palestine Residents Urges Locals DO NOT Take Initial Payment from Norfolk Southern.
• Clown Show: As Kamala Harris Says Spy Balloon Will Have No Impact on US-China Relations, China Foreign Ministry Threatens Retaliation, Says US Shootdown Had “Grave Impact” on Relations.

The Epoch Times:

• Republican Lawmakers See Balloon as ‘Wake Up Call’ for Americans on Chinese Surveillance.
• Chinese Spy Balloon Had Maneuvering Ability and Similarities to Google AI Balloon Project: Ex-DoD Official.

Twitter: 

• @HumanDilemma - A woman 10 miles from #EastPalestine, #Palestine #Ohio found all her #chickens #dead: "If it can do this to chickens in a night, imagine what it will do to us in 20 years". (video)
• @zerohedge - This Is What Hedge Funds Bought And Sold In Q4: 13F Summary.
• @LeadingReport - BREAKING: Tennessee legislators have filed a proposal to prohibit the mRNA vaccine in food products.
• @KLVeritas - New article on WHO, an overview of the Pandemic Treaty and amendments to IHR. The process is ongoing. Stay informed and urge your legislators to represent their people and say NO to WHO!
• @Liz_Churchill8 - Here’s the 2000 pages from Epstein’s Island…
• @LarryTaunton - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM UPDATE: Yuval Noah Harari, a central figure in the WEF and Klaus Schwab’s right hand man, says we are becoming gods and the story of Jesus is “fake news.” These are the people the Biden administration is empowering to inform global policy. (video)
• @AgentTruthTell3 - OHIO #EastPalestine Toxicology Test RELIES On Controversial Consulting Firm Accused Of SERVING Corporate Interest RATHER than PUBLIC HEALTH.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 934,700 Reports(+5,474 from prior week) Through February 3rd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.75 +.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 +1.75 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 123.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  63.9 +.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .44 -7.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.26%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.54%.

• S&P 500 futures +.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.37%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Soft-Landing Hopes, Meme Stock Frenzy, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -3.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .76%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.5 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.9 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -4.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.7 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -11.5%

• NYSE Arms .73 -27.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.4 +.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 355.04 -.38%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 326.0 +1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.7 -1.1% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 381.9 +.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.67 +.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.6 +.41%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.5 -.38%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 35.0 basis points +1.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 11.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  147.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 102.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .66 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.56%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.75% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.0 +12.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 82.7 -3.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +.9 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.06 +.11:  Growth Rate +.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.44% +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 +7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -82.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.42% +26.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 71.0%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 46.6%(-5.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.4%(+0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +134 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long